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研究生: 陳君愷
Chen, Chun-Kai
論文名稱: 不同選股策略下的投資績效與風險衡量
The Investment Performances and Risk Measurements under Different Stock Selection Strategies
指導教授: 王萬成
Wang, Wan-Cheng
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 會計學系
Department of Accountancy
論文出版年: 2004
畢業學年度: 92
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 108
中文關鍵詞: 選股策略投資報酬風險衡量
外文關鍵詞: Stock Selection Strategy, Risk Measurement, Investment Return
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  •   本研究以1986年至2000年間的上市公司為研究對象,探討在各種不同的選股策略之下,是否能為投資人帶來超越台股大盤的超額投資報酬。同時並研究投資人在享有超額投資報酬的同時,是否同時也承擔了較高的投資風險。實證結果發現:
    1.在價值型選股策略方面,以本銷比的表現為最佳,只要持有的投資期間超過一年以上,不但可以具有顯著的超額投資報酬,而且也不需要承受較高的投資風險。現金流量比率則在一至二年的持有期間下,具有顯著優於大盤的表現。股利殖利率以及益本比在選股時較不具有指標性的作用。2.在成長型選股策略方面,以研發費用率的表現為最佳,只要持有的投資期間超過一年以上,不但可以具有顯著的超額投資報酬,而且也不需要承受較高的投資風險。總資產報酬率、淨值報酬率及資產報酬率的成長率雖無法帶來較高的超額投資報酬,但是經風險調整後的報酬均有不錯的表現,都可算是比較穩健的投資策略。銷售成長率在各項分析的結果不一致。市價淨值比在選股時不具有指標性的作用。3.台股在短期內的規模效應較顯著。

      This study examines the profitability and investment risk of a broad range of stock selection strategies in Taiwan Stock Exchange market over the period 1986-2000.In this study, we not only focus our attention on investment return, but also take investment risks into consideration at the same time. In addition to traditional risk measurment methods, including Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, and Jensen ratio, this study also make use of the downside risk approach to measure the investment risk of these stock selection strategies.
      This study document that the SP ratio is the most successful strategy to earn the excess return without higher investment risks in value investment strategies. The cash flow percentage portfolio is also significant when the holding period is two years. However, the DP and EP ratio do not have significant effects in Taiwan stock market. With regard to growth investment strategries, the RD ratio is the most successful strategy to earn the excess return without higher investment risks on condition that the holding period is over one year. ROE, ROA, and ROAG can only gain excess return in specific period, but they can outperform the market after the adjustion of these risk measures. The SG ratio does not have consistent results among these measuring methods. MTB ratio does not have significant effects in Taiwan stock market. As for scale investment strategries, the SIZE ratio has significant effects in the short term of holding period.

    第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第三節 研究架構與流程 5 第二章 文獻探討與相關理論 7 第一節 文獻探討 7 第二節 平均數-左尾部分動差模型(MLPM) 15 第三章 研究方法與實驗設計 20 第一節 研究方法 20 第二節 選股策略的變數定義: 21 第三節 實驗設計 29 第四章、選股策略績效之實證分析: 43 第一節 各種選股策略超額報酬之t檢定 43 第二節 橫斷面資料迴歸分析結果 49 第五章、風險衡量實證分析: 60 第一節 傳統之風險衡量指標 60 一、Sharpe ratio 檢定 61 二、Treynor ratio檢定 67 三、Jensen ratio檢定 73 第二節 下方風險之衡量指標 79 一、以市場大盤之平均報酬為基準 79 二、以無風險利率為基準 86 第六章、結論: 100 第一節 實證分析結論 100 第二節 研究限制以及對後續研究的建議 103 參考文獻 104

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