本論文主要針對1996年至2010年中國能源消費前十大省份之總二氧化碳排放、各省份二兩軮化碳排放及交通運輸部門二氧化碳排放趨勢，藉由因素分解法對數平均權重迪氏指數法LMDI探討以下變數，如二氧化碳排放量、能源消費量、民用汽車持有量、人口數及國民生產毛額及車輛行駛距離，對其兩部分排放變動之關鍵影響並量化其貢獻率，以作為中國邁向永續發展與CO2減排策略之參考。第一部分因素分解法結果顯示，在整體二氧化碳排放中，增量因素依序為每人車輛擁有數、經濟發展及二氧化碳排放係數；減量因素依序為每單位GDP所需人口與車輛平均耗能。第二部分在交通運輸部門排放中，增量因素依序為每人車輛擁有數、每公里二氧化碳排放量與人口數；車輛平均行駛距離為唯一減量因素。針對研究結果提出以下建議：中國應思考如何在經濟發展與二氧化碳減排取之平衡，減少私人運具持有，相對的也發展完善之大眾運輸網路；在能源消費結構上，以減少煤炭使用、發展再生能源，與提高新車能源效率為主，減少汙染能遠使用並改善交通擁塞，達成永續發展。

Based on a decomposition analysis called the logarithmic mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach, the aim of this research is to identify the influencing factors affecting both total CO2 emission changes and CO2 emission changes from the transport sector in China’s top 10 energy consumption provinces from 1996 to 2010. The decomposition analysis is based on the following parameters, including CO2 emission, energy consumption, possession of civil vehicles, population, gross domestic product (GDP) and length of transport routes.
Results of the decomposition analysis in regard to total CO2 emission indicate that possession of civil vehicles per capita is the main factor leading to increase in CO2 emission with contribution rate of 175.09%; economic growth (GDP) is the 2nd with contribution rate of 165.51%, and the CO2 emission coefficient is the 3rd with contribution rate of 1.85%. However, the GDP per capita is the main factor by which to reduce CO2 emission with contribution rate of -157.55%, and energy consumption per vehicle is the 2nd with contribution rate of -84.9%. Focusing on the transport sector, possession of civil vehicles per capita is the main factor leading to increases in CO2 emission from the transport sector with contribution rate of 132%; CO2 emission per kilometer is the 2nd with contribution rate of 19%, and population is the 3rd with contribution rate of 175.09 6%; while possession of civil vehicles per km is the only factor leading to reduction in CO2 emissions with contribution rate of -58%.
This research proposes the following recommendations: China should strike the balance between economic growth and CO2 emission abatement by restricting private car ownership; on the other hand, improving the public transportation network and lessening the use of coal, developing renewable energy and improving the energy efficiency of vehicles are effective strategies by which to decrease pollutants, reduce the level of traffic congestion and reach sustainable development.

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