| 研究生: |
葉怡芬 Yeh, Yi-Fen |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
信用交易之資訊內涵及其投資策略獲利性之研究 |
| 指導教授: |
陳俊男
Chen, Chun-Nan |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 財務金融研究所 Graduate Institute of Finance |
| 論文出版年: | 2004 |
| 畢業學年度: | 92 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 81 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 信用交易 、Fama and French三因子 、投資策略 、融券 、融資 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | investment strategy, margin transaction, Fama and French, short interest, short sell, Margin trading |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:201 下載:3 |
| 分享至: |
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本研究旨在探討我國股票市場信用交易與股價之間的關係,並檢定利用信用交易資訊所形成的投資策略。詳言之,本研究選取1991年1月初至2002年12月底間台灣上市公司,以其所處融資和融券指標水準為區間分類,形成投資組合樣本,配合日後股票報酬的表現,分析信用交易指標(融資、融券)與股票報酬的關係,推估所反映之資訊內涵。再根據該所得結果形成買進高報酬區間的投資組合、賣出低高報酬區間的投資組合之零成本投資策略。此外,依據公司規模、帳面市價比、負債淨值等解釋因子,各分類為三個樣本,再融入前述投資策略,比較該報酬是否有更顯著的結果。 與過去研究最大的不同,乃本研究探討個別公司信用交易與其股價間的關係,而非以市場整體信用交易與其指數為對象,且更進一步運用信用交易所帶來的資訊內涵形成投資策略,探究該投資策略是否產生超額報酬。
研究結果顯示在信用交易指標的資訊內涵方面,融資或融券水準愈高,原始與超額報酬愈低,然融資在巨量時卻仍呈現正報酬。若相較各分類區間的報酬,則融券增減佔流通在外股數比例最高與最低區間的投資組合分別有最高與最低的原始報酬與超額報酬。在具獲利性的交易策略方面,短期而言,買進前述最高報酬區間並賣出最低報酬區間之單純策略均優於上述加入其他解釋因子之後的策略; 長期而言,所有策略皆隨著持有期間的拉長,報酬有無來愈低的現象,亦即以信用交易形成該投資策略時,短期內(一週)的報酬最高。
The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between the level of margin transactions and stock returns in Taiwan and to check the profit of investment strategy using the above information of margin transactions. Specifically, margin trading data of the listed companies in Taiwan from January 1991 through December 2002 is used. Different levels of margin trading exhibit many returns characteristics. Then, this study tries to find a beneficial strategy by forming a buy-and-sell zero-investment portfolio. Besides, the sample is divided into three different size (or book-to-market, or debt-to-equity) categories. Then, the profit of the above zero-investment portfolio under various categories is tested. A big difference this study makes is that the individual stock return, not the market index, will be investigated, and a buy-and-sell strategy to form a profitable portfolio will be found.
Empirical results indicate that: (1) As the rises level of short interest or margin trading falls, abnormal return rises, while the portfolio with the highest margin trading level has positive abnormal returns. (2) In short horizon, the pure strategy of buying the highest abnormal returns portfolio and selling the lowest abnormal returns portfolio has higher returns than other strategies considering other factors. In long horizon, the longer holding periods the lower abnormal returns.
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