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研究生: 謝佩琪
Hsieh, Pei-Chi
論文名稱: 世界杯足球賽對地主國的航空需求影響-以德國和美國為例
The Impact of FIFA Soccer World Cup on the Demand for Air Transportation of Host Countries: Evidence from Germany and U.S.
指導教授: 康信鴻
Kang, Hsin-Hong
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 企業管理學系
Department of Business Administration
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 56
中文關鍵詞: 世界盃運動經濟區域經濟航空旅遊需求
外文關鍵詞: World Cup, Sports Economics, Regional Economics, Demand for Air Travel
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  • 此篇論文,主要以多元迴歸模型探討世界盃足球賽和主辦國家之航空需求關係,然而此研究不只有考慮世界盃足球賽對航空需求的影響;除此之外,也考慮其他獨立變數。此論文研究對象分別為2006年6月至2006年7月舉辦世界盃得德國與1994年6月至1994年7月舉辦世界盃得美國。被解釋變數為航空乘客人數,而解釋變數為失業率、人口、消費者物價指數、國內生產毛額、原油價格、匯率、美國貿易加權值、代表世界盃足球賽發生時兩個月和前後一個月的虛擬變數。此篇研究結果顯示國內生產毛額和人口對主辦國德國跟美國航空需求無顯著影響;失業率、匯率和美國貿易加權值分別對美國跟德國航空需求有顯著負影響;消費者物價指數對德國有顯著負影響;原油價格對德國跟美國航空需求正面地顯著影響;2006年德國世界盃足球賽對德國航空需求沒有顯著影響,然而1994年美國世界盃足球則對美國航空需求具有正面地顯著影響。

    The main purpose of this paper is to employ the multiple regression to explore the relationship between FIFA Soccer World Cup and the demand for air travel of host countries. The aim of this study is the host countries, Germany and U.S., which held the Soccer World Cup from June 2006 to July 2006 and from June 1994 to July 1994. The dependent variable is the number of airline passengers and the independent variables, which are unemployment rate, population, consumer price index, gross domestic product, crude oil price, exchange rate and trade weighted value of U.S. The dummy variable, which represents the two months of holding FIFA World Cup and one month before and after the world cup is held. The empirical results show that GDP and population have no significant effect on the demand for air travel in the host countries, Germany and U.S. unemployment rate, exchange rate and trade weighted value of U.S. have separately a significant and negative impact on the demand for air transportation in Germany and U.S. While, CPI has a significant and negative impact on the demand for air transportation in Germany. Crude oil price has a positively significant impact on the demand for air transportation in Germany and U.S. The 2006 FIFA World Cup does not have a significant impact on the dependent variable, airline demand in Germany, but the 1994 FIFA World Cup has a positive and significant impact on the dependent variable for airline demand in the United States.

    Table of Contents Chapert1 Introduction............................................01 1.1 Research Motivation and Objectives..................01 1.2 Research Process..............................03 Chapter 2 Literature Review..........................04 2.1 Literature Reviews on the Economic Effect of the Soccer World Cup....04 2.1.1 Economic Benefits of the FIFA World Cup..........06 2.1.2 Non-economic Benefits of the FIFA World Cup………………08 2.2 Literature Reviews Related to Air Transportation Industry...........09 2.3 Research Direction..........................16 Chapter 3 Research Design.......................18 3.1 Research method and Research process........18 3.1.1 Research Method..........................19 3.1.2 Flowchart of Model Modification..........22 3.2 Research Variables and Data................23 3.2.1 Dependent Variable.......................23 3.2.2 Independent Variable.....................23 3.2.3 Tables of Data Sources...................27 3.3 Empirical Model..........................29 3.3.1 The Regression Equation on the Demand for Air Transportation of Germany...............29 3.3.2 The Regression Equation on the Demand for Air Transportation of U.S..................30 Chapter 4 Empirical Results.................31 4.1 The Empirical Results and Analyses in Germany.....31 4.1.1Primitive Regression Model of Germany............32 4.1.2 Data Tests.....................................33 4.1.3 Modified Regression Model of Germany...........35 4.2 The Empirical Results and Analyses in U.S........38 4.2.1Primitive Regression Model of the United States...38 4.2.2 Data Tests......................................40 4.2.3 Modified Regression Model of the United States.....42 Chapter 5 Research Conclusions and Suggestions.........45 5.1 Research Conclusions.........................45 5.1.1 Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors....45 5.1.2 Analysis of the Impact of FIFA Soccer World Cup on the Demand for Air Transportation in Germany...........47 5.1.3 Analysis of the Impact of FIFA Soccer World Cup on the Demand for Air Transportation in U.S...............49 5.2 Research Suggestions..........................53 References........................................55

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