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研究生： 黃文還
Hoang, Van Hoan
論文名稱： 經濟政策不確定性與策略聯盟區位選擇
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Strategic Alliance Location Choice
指導教授： 張紹基
Chang, Shao-Chi
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 國際企業研究所
Institute of International Business
論文出版年： 2026
畢業學年度： 114
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 55
中文關鍵詞： 經濟政策不確定性 、策略聯盟 、跨國聯盟 、區位選擇 、制度品質 、財務彈性
外文關鍵詞： Economic policy uncertainty, Strategic alliances, Cross-border alliances, Location choice, Institutional quality, Financial flexibility
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    • 跨國策略聯盟是美國企業進入海外市場並取得技術的重要途徑。既有研究已證實，經濟政策不確定性(EPU)提高會降低企業形成聯盟的傾向，此效果屬於聯盟活動之外延邊際。然而，政策不確定性如何影響已形成聯盟的區位特徵，屬於內延邊際之研究議題，目前所知仍有限。本論文探討本國政策不確定性是否與美國企業所主導之跨國策略聯盟的東道國政策不確定性暴露呈現關聯。
    本研究運用 2002 年至 2022 年間 19 個東道國、5,324 筆美國主導之跨國策略聯盟樣本，檢驗一項主效果假設，以及取自制度品質、財務彈性、產業契約強度、以及夥伴知識密度文獻之四項調節假設。實證分析於交易層級進行，採用普通最小平方法迴歸，並使用依企業、東道國及其交集所建構之三向叢集穩健標準誤。
    實證結果對主效果假設提供部分支持。滯後一年之美國政策不確定性與東道國政策不確定性間之關聯為負，且在企業叢集推論下具統計顯著性 (p = 0.030)，但在東道國叢集或雙向叢集規格下與零並無統計上可區分之差異。制度品質調節變數在本研究設計中未被識別為獨立之國家內部機制，其互動型態較可能反映主效果之跨國分層。財務彈性、契約強度與知識密度調節變數並未支持風險承擔能力、契約強度、以及知識密度機制所預測之方向。
    本研究藉由將分析關注焦點從企業「是否」形成聯盟轉移至「何處」形成聯盟，對政策不確定性文獻做出貢獻，並針對美國主導跨國策略聯盟大樣本，提供了關於哪些機制得以識別、哪些不能被識別的坦誠實證評估。

    Cross-border strategic alliances are important vehicles for U.S. firms to access foreign markets and technologies. Prior research has documented that heightened economic policy uncertainty (EPU) reduces the propensity of firms to form alliances, an effect on the extensive margin of alliance activity. Less is known, however, about how policy uncertainty shapes the location characteristics of alliances that are actually formed, an intensive-margin question. This thesis examines whether home-country policy uncertainty is associated with the host-country policy uncertainty exposure of realized cross-border strategic alliances led by U.S. firms.
    Using a sample of 5,324 U.S.-led cross-border alliances announced between 2002 and 2022 across 19 host countries, the study tests one main-effect hypothesis and four moderating hypotheses drawn from institutional-quality, financial flexibility, industry contract intensity, and partner knowledge intensity literatures. The empirical analysis is conducted at the deal level using ordinary least squares regression with three-way cluster-robust standard errors clustered by firm, host country, and their intersection.
    Results provide partial support for the main-effect hypothesis. The association between one-year-lagged U.S. policy uncertainty and host-country policy uncertainty is negative and statistically significant under firm-cluster inference (p = 0.030), but is not statistically distinguishable from zero under host-cluster or two-way cluster specifications. The institutional-quality moderator is not identified as an independent within-country mechanism in this design, as its interaction pattern likely reflects cross-country stratification of the main effect. The financial flexibility, contract intensity, and knowledge intensity moderators are not supported in the directions predicted by the risk-bearing capacity, contract-intensity, and knowledge-intensity mechanisms, respectively.
    By shifting analytical attention from whether firms form alliances to where they form them, this study contributes to the policy uncertainty literature and provides a candid empirical assessment of which mechanisms identify, and which do not, in a large sample of U.S.-led cross-border alliances.

    Chapter 1. Introduction 10 Chapter 2. Related Literature and Hypotheses Development 13 2.1 Policy Uncertainty 13 2.1.1 Definition of Policy Uncertainty 13 2.1.2 How Policy Uncertainty Affects Firm Decisions 13 2.1.3 Recent Evidence 14 2.2 Strategic Alliances 14 2.2.1 Strategic Alliances: Definition, Role, Risks, and Uncertainty 14 2.2.2 Alliances under Uncertainty: Mixed Evidence 15 2.2.3 Negative Effects Exist, but Alliances Persist 15 2.3 Motivation for Strategic Alliances 15 2.3.1 Transaction Cost Perspective 16 2.3.2 Resource-Based Perspective 16 2.3.3 Alliances as a Compromise or Alternative to Acquisitions 16 2.4 Policy Uncertainty and Alliance Location Choice 17 2.4.1 Relational Risk and Alliance Location Choice 17 2.4.2 Real Options and Strategic Flexibility as a Background Perspective 18 2.5 Moderators of the Policy Uncertainty–Alliance Location Relationship 18 2.5.1 Host-country Institutional Quality 18 2.5.2 Financial Flexibility 18 2.6 Additional Relational-Risk Amplifiers 19 2.6.1 Contract Intensity 19 2.6.2 R&D / Service Industry 20 Chapter 3. Data, Variables, and Sample Formation 21 3.1 Research Design and Empirical Approach 21 3.2 Data Sources 21 3.3 Variable Construction 22 3.4 Variable Definition Table (Table V1) 23 3.5 Sample Construction Process 26 3.6 Sample Composition 26 3.6.1 Distribution by announcement year 26 3.6.2 Distribution by host (foreign-partner) country 27 3.6.3 Distribution by partner-industry knowledge intensity 28 3.7 Descriptive Statistics 28 3.8 Pairwise Correlations 30 3.9 Estimation Strategy and Inference 32 3.9.1 Baseline Specification 32 3.9.2 Moderation Analysis 32 3.9.3 Prior Alliance Experience (rolling 5-year window) 33 3.9.4 Standardisation of interaction-model variables 33 3.9.5 Three-way cluster-robust standard errors 33 3.9.6 Robustness Checks 33 Chapter 4. Findings and Results 35 4.1 Main Regression Results (H1 – H5) 35 4.3 Alternative Outcome and Explanatory Specifications 37 4.4 WGI Dimension Decomposition (H2 Robustness) 39 4.5 EPU Alternative Measures (H1 Robustness) 41 4.6 EPU Moving-Average Robustness 44 4.7 Quantile-based Economic Significance 46 4.8 Marginal-effect Plots for the Moderators 47 4.9 Hypothesis-by-Hypothesis Discussion 48 Chapter 5. Discussion and Conclusion 49 5.1 Summary of Findings 49 5.2 Theoretical Contributions and Refinements 50 5.3 Practical Implications 51 5.4 Limitations and Future Research 52 References 53

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