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研究生：	吳昱達 Wu, Yu-Ta
論文名稱：	可靠度最佳化方法應用於不確定因素下之城市交通法規制定 Extension of Probabilistic Optimization to Urban Traffic Policy-Setting Under Uncertainty
指導教授：	詹魁元 Chan, Kuei-Yuan
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	工學院 - 機械工程學系 Department of Mechanical Engineering
論文出版年：	2010
畢業學年度：	98
語文別：	中文
論文頁數：	75
中文關鍵詞：	不確定因素下之最佳政策制定、環境衝擊、細胞自動機、可靠度最佳化設計、不確定因素模擬
外文關鍵詞：	Optimal Policy Setting under Uncertainty, Environmental Impact, Cellular Automata, Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO), Uncertainty Modeling
相關次數：	點閱：109 下載：3
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交通運輸產生的汙染是城市中空氣汙染的主要來源，而在各類控制交通空氣汙染的方法中，交通管理方法具備了及時性、低研發成本、低推廣失敗風險等優點，因此利用制定適當的法規來控制交通空氣汙染已逐漸被重視。然而在進行法規決策時，環境中存在的不確定因素向來是決策的一大挑戰。

本研究將工程上可靠度最佳化設計的概念延伸至城市交通政策的決策上，首先參考多個現存的交通細胞自動機(CA)模型，發展出一套可模擬多線道汽機車混合車流的交通模型；將此交通模型搭配道路使用者平衡(UE)以用來模擬台南市汽機車的交通行為；利用與高斯擴散模型的結合，可有效評估交通汙染的濃度擴散情形。本論文除提出一套有系統的方法進行交通汙染的評估外，也探討特定政策下交通汙染對周邊造成的環境衝擊與各種不確定因素對環境衝擊的影響，進而實際應用在台南市區域的路網，展示如何應用可靠度最佳化方法來輔助交通法規的制定，在最佳化路網中行車成本的同時，也使道路周邊的空氣品質可符合環保法規限制之標準。

Decision-making in traffic regulations is challenging with uncertainty in the environment. In this research we extend probabilistic engineering design concepts to policy decision-making for urban traffic with variability from field data. City traffic is simulated using user equilibrium and cellular automata. A cellular automata (CA) model is developed by combing existing CA models with tailored rules for local traffic behaviors in Tainan, Taiwan. Both passenger sedans and motorcycles are considered with the possibility of passing between different types of vehicles. The tailpipe emissions from all mobile sources are modeled as Gaussian dispersion with finite line sources. Speed limits of all roads are selected as independent policy design variables, resulting in a problem with 50 dimensions. We first study the impacts of a particular policy-setting on traffic behaviors and on the environment under various sources of uncertainties. The genetic algorithm, combined with probabilistic analysis, is then used to obtain the optimal regulations with the minimal cost to the environment in compliance to the current ambient air quality standards.

論文口試委員審定書  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     1
書名頁 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .      i
授權書 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     ii
中文摘要   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    iii
英文摘要   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    iv
誌謝  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     v
目錄  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    vi
表目錄 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    ix
圖目錄 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     x
符號說明   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   xii
第一章、緒論  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     1
1   研究背景   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     1
2   動機與目的   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2
2.1    研究動機   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2
2.2    研究目的   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     3
3   論文架構   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     3
第二章、文獻回顧   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     5
1   交通空氣汙染  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     5
1.1    交通空氣汙染概況   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     5
1.2    交通空氣污染的推估  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     6
1.3    交通空氣汙染對人體的危害  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     7
1.4    交通空氣汙染的減量策略   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     8
1.5    交通政策規劃與空氣汙染   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   12
2   交通細胞自動機相關研究   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   13
2.1    交通細胞自動機模型的發展  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   14
2.2    交通細胞自動機模型之應用  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   16
3   可靠度最佳化設計   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   17
4   本章小結   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   20
第三章、交通模擬   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   22
1   交通模擬概述  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   22
2   使用者平衡   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   23
2.1    使用者平衡概述 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   23
2.2    DynaTAIWAN簡介 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   25
3   建構台南區域性交通CA模型 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   30
3.1    單線道模型(NS model) .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   30
3.2    雙線道模型  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   31
3.3    單線道含號誌路口模型 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   32
3.4    混合機車車流模型   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   33
3.5    台南區域性交通模型  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   35
3.6    台南區域性交通模型車流敏感度分析  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   36
4   情境分析   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   38
4.1    情境分析設定  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   38
4.2    情境分析結果  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   40
第四章、環境衝擊分析 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   44
1   高斯汙染擴散模型   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   44
2   交通汙染排放率 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   47
3   不確定因素模擬 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   47
3.1    風速與風向  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   47
3.2    污染擴散係數  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   50
第五章、交通法規之最佳化制定   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   52
1   研究區域簡介  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   52
2   交通汙染之環境衝擊分析   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   52
3   最佳化問題數學模型  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   55
3.1    目標函數   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   55
3.2    限制條件   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   57
4   最佳化解題方法 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   58
5   台南市區速限最佳化結果   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   61
5.1    無不確定因素下之速限最佳化結果   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   61
5.2    考慮不確定因素之速限最佳化結果   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   64
第六章、結論與建議  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   66
1   研究總結與貢獻 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   66
2   未來研究方向  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   66
參考文獻   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   68
自傳  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   75

                                    

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