| 研究生: |
加維德 Javier Alexander Salgado |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
利用卷積神經網路預測鋼筋價格之波動-以宏都拉斯為例 Forecasting Rebar Price Fluctuation in Honduras Using Convolutional Neural Network |
| 指導教授: |
馮重偉
Feng, Chung-Wei |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
工學院 - 土木工程學系 Department of Civil Engineering |
| 論文出版年: | 2021 |
| 畢業學年度: | 109 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 80 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Machine Learning, Rebar, Convolutional Neural Network, Price factors, Deep Learning |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:113 下載:0 |
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Rebar, also known as Reinforcement steel bars is one of the most widely used materials in the construction industry around the world, it is a component of the essential elements of construction like columns, beams, and foundations. Rebar is utilized in almost every type of civil engineering project from buildings, houses, highways, dams, etc. It is an extremely important material in civil engineering owing to its excellent mechanical properties and it is used to provide resistance to support design loads. However, there is an important issue related to it, its price is highly unpredictable since it depends on many factors. This volatility is the reason why contractors are unable to forecast future prices using only their experience or traditional statistical methods. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) which is a type of deep learning has proved to be suitable for making similar predictions, in previous research, this methodology has been used to predict stock market prices and construction risks. In this thesis, a list of factors that play a leading role to influence the rebar price in the Honduras market was determined and processed to be used as input data, followed by the development of different CNN architectures to predict the fluctuations of rebar to compare them. The models were designed to make predictions for which will be the price fluctuation percentage for four different time periods, one, three, six, and twelve months ahead in the future of a specific date, using data from the last twelve months of that date. The results showed a highly accurate model using an architecture with dropout layers that outperformed the rest of architectures and it can be used for contractors to execute predictions and be aware of future price changes and be prepare for this kind of fluctuation and develop a buying rebar strategy.
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校內:2026-07-30公開