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研究生: 加維德
Javier Alexander Salgado
論文名稱: 利用卷積神經網路預測鋼筋價格之波動-以宏都拉斯為例
Forecasting Rebar Price Fluctuation in Honduras Using Convolutional Neural Network
指導教授: 馮重偉
Feng, Chung-Wei
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 土木工程學系
Department of Civil Engineering
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 80
外文關鍵詞: Machine Learning, Rebar, Convolutional Neural Network, Price factors, Deep Learning
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  • Rebar, also known as Reinforcement steel bars is one of the most widely used materials in the construction industry around the world, it is a component of the essential elements of construction like columns, beams, and foundations. Rebar is utilized in almost every type of civil engineering project from buildings, houses, highways, dams, etc. It is an extremely important material in civil engineering owing to its excellent mechanical properties and it is used to provide resistance to support design loads. However, there is an important issue related to it, its price is highly unpredictable since it depends on many factors. This volatility is the reason why contractors are unable to forecast future prices using only their experience or traditional statistical methods. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) which is a type of deep learning has proved to be suitable for making similar predictions, in previous research, this methodology has been used to predict stock market prices and construction risks. In this thesis, a list of factors that play a leading role to influence the rebar price in the Honduras market was determined and processed to be used as input data, followed by the development of different CNN architectures to predict the fluctuations of rebar to compare them. The models were designed to make predictions for which will be the price fluctuation percentage for four different time periods, one, three, six, and twelve months ahead in the future of a specific date, using data from the last twelve months of that date. The results showed a highly accurate model using an architecture with dropout layers that outperformed the rest of architectures and it can be used for contractors to execute predictions and be aware of future price changes and be prepare for this kind of fluctuation and develop a buying rebar strategy.

    ABSTRACT I ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS III TABLE OF CONTENTS IV LIST OF TABLES VIII LIST OF FIGURES IX CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Background. 1 1.2 Objectives 3 1.3 Research Scope and limitations 3 1.4 Research Procedure 4 1.5 Thesis Structure 6 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 7 2.1 Research Problem statement 7 2.1.1 Factors influencing the rebar price are complex and difficult to fully understand. 8 2.1.2 Current status of artificial intelligence technology applications 9 2.2 Rebar price influence factors 10 2.2.1 Factors affecting the price of steel raw materials 10 2.2.2 Steel Iron ore and price factors 11 2.3 Machine Learning: Deep Learning for predictions 11 2.3.1 Deep Learning 14 2.3.2 Neural Networks 14 2.3.3 Dropout Layer 16 2.4 Summary 18 CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 20 3.1 Research structure 20 3.2 Data Collection and Pre-processing 20 3.2.1 Experts Interview 20 3.2.2 Web Crawler 20 3.2.3 Python 21 3.2.4 Matplotlib 22 3.3 Program Development tools 23 3.3.1 TensorFlow 23 3.3.2 Keras 25 CHAPTER 4: CONVOLUTIONAL NEURAL NETWORK MODEL DEVELOPMENT 27 4.1 Establish prediction model goals 30 4.1.1 Prediction target period 30 4.1.2 Label decision 30 4.2 Analyzing the Price determinants of rebar price 32 4.2.1 Production cost 33 4.2.2 Supply Chain 35 4.2.3 Market Factors 36 4.2.4 International determinants and local determinants 38 4.2.5 Local Determinants 40 4.2.6 Summary 41 4.3 Data Preprocessing 43 4.3.1 Fluctuation percentage 43 4.3.2 Standardization Z-Score (Normalization) 44 4.3.3 Data Cutting 45 4.3.4 Label Marking 47 4.3.5 Image Converter 47 4.4 Data augmentation 47 4.5 Data Split 48 4.6 Building Convolutional Neural Network prediction model 49 4.6.1 Convolutional Neural Network architecture development 50 4.6.2 Architectures to be trained 53 4.7 Summary 54 CHAPTER 5: RESEARCH RESULTS 55 5.1 Models training results 55 5.2 Evaluation metrics 62 5.2.1 Confusion matrixes 62 5.2.2 Precision and recall 63 5.2.3 F1-Score 64 5.3 Evaluation Results 65 5.3.1 Confusion Matrixes Results 65 5.3.2 F1 Score Results 71 5.3.3 Sensitivity Analysis 71 5.4 Executing a forecast 72 5.5 Application for contractors and decision-makers in the construction Industry 73 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH 74 6.1 Conclusions 74 6.2 Future Research 75 6.2.1. K-means and Elbow method 75 6.2.2. Increasing the data set 76 REFERENCES 77

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