受到次貸危機以及金融海嘯之影響，全球不論是先進國家或發展中國家，無一不被波及，使得各國經濟成長下滑，造成全球元氣大傷，因此本研究探討次級房貸後七大工業國(G7)與金磚四國(BRICs)之經濟成長，研究之內容可分為兩部分，第一部分討論金磚四國與七大工業國各國經濟成長之領先落後關係，找出哪些國家可帶領因此波金融風暴所導致之經濟衰退走出陰霾；第二部分則探討這些國家之領先指標，何者可為明星產業帶領該國經濟成長。
因各個國家資料取得限制，第一部份金磚四國研究期間為1996年第二季至2008年第四季，七大工業國研究期間為1980年第一季至2008年第四季；第二部分則因各個國家領先指標歷史資料取得限制，每個國家之研究期間也有所不同，因此研究資料只到2008年第四季。本研究方法利用單根檢定(Unit Root test)、共整合分析(cointegration)與向量誤差修正模型(vector error correction model, VECM)進行實證分析，結果顯示，在金磚四國方面，由於中國持續擴大內需，因此對於原物料之需求大增，與巴西、俄羅斯、印度之往來頻繁，且出口與進口分別為中國與巴西短期經濟成長之因，顯示中國在金磚四國經濟成長佔有舉足輕重之地位；在七大工業國方面，在單向與雙向之因果關係中，除了日本以外，美國與七大工業國其它五個國家皆有單向或雙向因果關係，且原先之出口大國德國、美國與日本，雖然經歷此次風暴，出口依舊為此三國經濟成長之因，進口與出口為構成物流產業成長之主要因素，不論物流是以航運或者航空為運載工具，皆顯示物流產業為國家經濟成長之重要推手。

Both developed and developing countries were affected by the subprime mortgage and financial crisis that began in 2007, with the global economic growth rate falling to a record low. Consequently, this research studies the economic growth of the G7 and BRICs countries during this crisis. The research objectives are divided into two parts. The first discusses which countries will emerge from the financial crisis first to increase consumption and promote economic growth among the BRICs and G7 nations. The second part discusses the relationship between the leading indicators and GDP growth. We will identify the leading industries from the leading indicators, and these are the drivers that will enable countries to overcome the financial crisis.
In the first part of this study, due to limitations with regard to obtaining some of the figures, the BRICs data is compiled over the period April 1996 to December 2008, and the G7 data is compiled over the period January 1980 to December 2008 , both on the quarterly basis. In the second part, since the availability of every country’s leading indicators is limited, the period for which every country is examined is from different years until the 2008 Q4. This study uses the unit root test, Johansen cointegration test and vector error correction model (VECM), and the empirical results indicate that China frequently trades with Brazil, Russia and India due to its own expanding domestic demand. Moreover, in the short-run, exports and imports lead to GDP growth in China and Brazil, showing that the former plays an important role in BRICs. In the G7, the USA has a unidirectional or feedback effect with all of the other countries, except for Japan.
Furthermore, the USA, Germany and Japan’s exports ranked 1st , 2nd and 4th in 2006, and even after the subprime mortgage and financial crisis, in the short-run, exports still lead GDP growth in USA, Germany and Japan. Exports and imports are the main factors that make up the logistics industry. No matter whether the logistics industry uses sea or air transportation, it is an important element of economic growth.

一、英文部份
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二、中文部份
1. 劉佳雨(2002)出口不穩定與經濟成長之因果關係-東亞地區實證研究；東吳大學國際貿易學系碩士論文
2. 高瀞惠(2009)中國股市、貨幣與物價指數之動態關聯性之研究；高雄第一科技大學金融營運所碩士論文
3. 黃台心(2002)出口與經濟成長的因果關係：台灣的實證研究；《經濟論文叢刊》vol.30：4，pp465-490
4. 黃睿詳(2006)中東歐國家經濟成長之決定因素-以經濟整合角度探討；成功大學政治經濟學研究所所碩士論文
5. 曾惠淇(2005)台灣領先指標綜合指數與總體經濟活動關聯性之研究；逢甲大學財務金融學系碩士論文
6. 閻靜瑤(2009)台灣經貿伙伴景氣指標聯動關係之探討-VAR模型分析；世新大學管理學院經濟學系碩士論文
7. 楊奕農(2009)時間序列分析經濟與財務上之應用二版；雙葉書廊有限公司