氣候與人為因素導致可用水調配的不確定性，進而導致水資源運用的困難，為了用續性的水資源利用，了解氣候與人為因素對流量的影響，成為研究中重要的課題。本研究選擇七個臺灣南部集水區作為研究區域，利用Budyko架構分析1980年到2017年間氣候與人為因素對流量變化的影響，以分解法與彈性法來量化兩者的影響量，此外，研究中採用標準化植被指數當作實際土地覆蓋情況，用以驗證Budyko方程式中參數的變化。根據時間序列分析，臺灣南地區流量呈現增加趨勢，且各集水區存在一個改變點，流量模擬結果呈現Wang-Tang方程式適合臺灣南部流域。兩個量化方法均指出氣候因素為主要影響流量變化的因子，而彈性係數顯示降雨為影響流量最為顯著，而影響程度隨著流量增加而減少。另外，除了二仁與林邊溪流域之外，Budyko方程式中參數的變化都與實際土地覆蓋變化情況相同。本研究的分析初步探討了臺灣南部地區水文環境的變化，可作為未來水資源管理的參考。

Climate change and human activity are the main factors impacting the control of available water resources. Consequently, difficulties in managing water resources occur in many regions. For sustainable water utilization, identifying the impact contribution of climate and human factors on the streamflow is an important research issue. In this study, seven river basins in Southern Taiwan were select as the study area. The impact of climate and human factors on the streamflow variations from 1980 to 2017 was analyzed with the Budyko framework. The decomposition and elasticity methods were applied to quantify the impacts and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to represent the actual situation of land cover and to verify the parameters in the Budyko equation. The streamflow in seven river basins showed an increasing trend and existed one change point in each river basin. From the simulation performance of eight Budyko-type equations, Wang-Tang equation is applicable for the analysis in Southern Taiwan. The results of two quantitative methods consistently demonstrated that the streamflow variations from pre- to post-period occurred due to the climate factor. The elasticity coefficient of the variables demonstrated that the streamflow change is more sensitive to precipitation and this influence reduces as the streamflow increase. Besides, except for the Yanshui and the Linbian rivers, the Budyko equation parameters changed consistently with NDVI. The present study provides very simple and effective results on the contribution of streamflow variations in Southern Taiwan to serve as a reference for future water management.

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