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研究生: 武文花
Vu, Van Hoa
論文名稱: 解析核心利益與國家生存的關係:越南在南海中美戰略競爭中的雙重避險策略
Sophisticated Navigation for Core Interests and National Survival: Vietnam’s Dual Hedging Strategy amid the US-China Strategic Competition in the South China Sea
指導教授: 宋鎮照
Soong, Jenn-Jaw
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 社會科學院 - 政治學系
Department of Political Science
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 113
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 321
中文關鍵詞: 美中關係戰略競爭南海越南的認知對衝戰略
外文關鍵詞: US-China Relations, Strategic Competition, the South China Sea, Vietnam's Perceptions, Hedging Strategy
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  • 近年來,美國與中國之間的戰略競爭達到了前所未有的高度,涵蓋了經濟,貿易,科技,政治,意識形態和安全等多個領域。在這些領域中,南海已成為美中戰略競爭中最具爭議的戰場之一。越南位於此爭議地區的核心,並與中國存在著領土爭端,因此深陷了美中之间的競爭中。在此背景下,瞭解越南如何應對與中國和美國的關係,對於分析其在這一高度敏感地區的更廣泛外交政策至關重要。因此,本文深入地探討了越南在南海緊張的局勢下對中國和美國所採取的戰略。本文有兩個主要的目標:第一,探索越南對中國和美國的看法;第二,研究越南對這兩個全球大國所採取的戰略。
    關於第一個目標,本文認為越南對中國和美國的看法既包含積極方面,也包含消極方面。然而,越南對中國的積極看法正在降低,而消極看法則在上升。相比之下,越南對美國的消極看法顯著減少,而積極看法則在增加。關於第二個目標,本文認為越南採取了一種避免選邊站的戰略,巧妙地推行雙重對衝戰略。然而,在此雙重對衝戰略中,越南對中國採取了較強的對沖策略,體現在「強對衝戰略」上,而對美國則採取了較溫和的對衝策略,體現在「溫和對衝戰略」上。

    In recent years, the strategic rivalry between the United States and China has reached unprecedented levels, spanning various domains such as economy, trade, technology, politics, ideology and security. Among these, the South China Sea has emerged as one of the most contentious battlegrounds for US-China strategic competition. Vietnam, located at the heart of this contested region and engaged in territorial disputes with China, finds itself deeply entangled in the rivalry between these two global powers. Against this backdrop, understanding how Vietnam navigates its relationships with China and the United States is crucial for analyzing its broader foreign policy in this highly sensitive region. This dissertation, therefore, delves into Vietnam’s strategies toward China and the United States amidst escalating tensions in the South China Sea. It has two main objectives: first, to explore Vietnam’s perceptions of China and the United States; and second, to examine Vietnam’s strategies toward these two global powers. Regarding the first objective, the dissertation argues that Vietnam’s perceptions of China and the United States encompass both positive and negative aspects. However, Vietnam’s positive perceptions of China are diminishing, while negative perceptions are on the rise. In contrast, negative perceptions of the United States are significantly decreasing, while positive perceptions are increasing. For the second objective, the dissertation argues that Vietnam has adopted a strategy that avoids taking sides by skillfully pursuing a dual hedging strategy. However, within this dual hedging strategy, Vietnam conducts a strong hedging strategy toward China while pursuing a mild hedging strategy toward the United States.

    ABSTRACT i 摘要 ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT iii TABLE OF CONTENTS iv LIST OF TABLES viii LIST OF FIGURES ix CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. Research Background 1 1.2. Objectives of the Research 5 1.3. Literature Review on Vietnam’s Strategies Towards China and the US in the South China Sea 7 1.4. Research Questions 15 1.5. Scope of the Research 17 1.6. Research Methodology 18 1.7. Data Collection 23 CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 28 2.1. Neoclassical Realism 28 2.2. Triangle Relationship 33 2.3. Hedging Strategy 41 CHAPTER 3: THE US-CHINA STRATEGIC COMPETITION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA 63 3.1. China’s Interests in the South China Sea 63 3.2. The US’s Interests in the South China Sea 66 3.3. The US-China Strategic Competition in the South China Sea during the Obama Administration (2008–2016) 67 3.4. The US-China Strategic Competition in the South China Sea during Trump Administration (2016-2020) 73 3.5. The US-China Strategic Competition in the South China Sea during Biden administration (2020-2024) 80 3.6. Future of US-China Strategic Competition in the South China Sea 85 CHAPTER 4: VIETNAM’S PERCEPTIONS OF CHINA AND THE US IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA 91 4.1.Vietnam’s Sovereign Presence in the South China Sea 91 4.2.Vietnam’s Perception of China in the South China Sea 96 4.2.1. Overview of Vietnam-China Relations 96 4.2.2. Vietnam’s Positive Perception of China in the South China Sea 97 4.2.3. Vietnam’s Negative Perception of China in the South China Sea 100 4.2.4. Summary 110 4.3. Vietnam’s Perception of the US in the South China Sea 110 4.3.1. Overview of Vietnam-US relations 110 4.3.2. Vietnam’s Positive Perception of the US in the South China Sea 112 4.3.3. Vietnam’s Negative Perception of the US in the South China Sea 123 4.3.3. Summary 125 4.4. Closing Remarks 126 CHAPTER 5: VIETNAM’S STRATEGIES TOWARDS CHINA AND THE US IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (2008-2013) 128 5.1. Vietnam’s Political Strategies towards China and the US in the South China Sea (2008-2013) 128 5.1.1. Vietnam’s Political Strategy towards China in the South China Sea (2008-2013) 128 5.1.2. Vietnam’s Political Strategy toward the US in the South China Sea (2008-2013) 137 5.1.3. Evaluation of Vietnam’s Political Strategies towards China and the US in the South China Sea (2008-2013) 140 5.2. Vietnam’s Security Strategies towards China and the US in the South China Sea (2008-2013) 144 5.2.1. Vietnam’s Security Strategy towards China in the South China Sea (2008-2013) 144 5.2.2. Vietnam’s Security Strategy towards the US in the South China Sea (2008-2013) 154 5.2.3. Evaluation of Vietnam’s Security Strategies towards China and the US in the South China Sea (2008-2013) 158 5.3. Vietnam’s Economic Strategies towards China and the US in the South China Sea (2008-2013) 161 5.3.1. Vietnam’s Economic Strategy towards China in the South China Sea (2008-2013) 161 5.3.2. Vietnam’s Economic Strategy towards the US in the South China Sea (2008-2013) 166 5.3.3. Evaluation of Vietnam’s Economic Strategies towards China and the US in the South China Sea (2008-2013) 171 5.4. Vietnam’s Overall Strategies towards China and the US in the South China Sea (2008-2013) 174 CHAPTER 6: VIETNAM’S STRATEGIES TOWARDS CHINA AND THE US IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (2014-2024) 178 6.1. Vietnam’s Political Strategies towards China and the US in the South China Sea (2014-2024) 178 6.1.1. Vietnam’s Political Strategy towards China in the South China Sea (2014-2024) 178 6.1.2. Vietnam’s Political Strategy towards the US in the South China Sea (2014-2024) 186 6.1.3. Evaluation of Vietnam’s Political Strategies towards China and the US in the South China Sea (2014-2024) 191 6.2. Vietnam’s Security Strategies towards China and the US in the South China Sea (2014-2024) 195 6.2.1. Vietnam’s Security Strategy towards China in the South China Sea (2014-2024) 195 6.2.2. Vietnam’s Security Strategy towards the US in the South China Sea (2014-2024) 217 6.2.3. Evaluation of Vietnam’s Security Strategies towards China and the US in the South China Sea (2014-2024) 230 6.3. Vietnam’s Economic Strategies towards China and the US in the South China Sea (2014-2024) 235 6.3.1. Vietnam’s Economic Strategy towards China in the South China Sea (2014-2024) 235 6.3.2. Vietnam’s Economic Strategy towards the US in the South China Sea (2014-2024) 243 6.3.3. Evaluation of Vietnam’s Economic Strategies towards China and the US in the South China Sea (2014-2024) 253 6.4. Vietnam’s Overall Strategies towards China and the US in the South China Sea (2014-2024) 256 CHAPTER 7: VIETNAM’S OVERALL STRATEGIES TOWARDS CHINA AND THE US IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (2008-2024) 261 7.1. Vietnam’s Hedging Strategy Amidst U.S.-China Strategic Competition in the South China Sea 261 7.2. Vietnam’s Strategy of Strong Hedging with China and Mild Hedging with the US in the South China Sea (2008-2024) 275 7.3. Vietnam’s Strategies towards China and the US in the South China Sea under To Lam’s Leadership 279 CHAPTER 8: CONCLUSION 282 8.1. Findings of the Dissertation 282 8.2. Contributions of the Dissertation 283 8.3. Limitations of the Dissertation 284 8.4. Policy Suggestions for the Future 286 8.5. Possible Avenues of Future Research 295 REFERENCES 299 APPENDICES 310

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