相較於已開發國家近年來經濟成長速度的緩慢，開發中國家的快速崛起，造成全球的經濟版圖史無前例的改變，其中又以金磚四國的發展最為耀眼。巴西和俄羅斯為現今全世界主要的原物料供應者；印度以及中國則挾帶著其龐大的生產力為當今全球製成品和服務的主要出口國，這個現象促使全球物流配送對於散裝海運的需求大幅提升，以滿足更多製成品以及原物料對於運輸的需求。
然而，美國仍為當前世界經濟強權，縱使美國為金融風暴所苦，但它對於世界經濟及股票市場依然有很大的影響力。因此，本研究探討2003年1月至2008年6月底波羅的海運價指數與金磚四國及美國股票市場間之因果關係分析。本研究分別採用單根檢定、共整合檢定、向量誤差修正模型、向量自我迴歸模型及Granger因果關係檢定進行實證分析。
實證結果顯示，所有原始的時間序列資料皆呈現非定態；但是在經過一階差分之後，資料趨於定態；透過Johansen共整合檢定發現波羅的海運價指數與各國股票市場之間並未存在著長期均衡的關係；此外，Granger因果關係之研究結果顯示中國股價指數的波動才是最主要影響波羅的海運價指數波動之原因。

The strong emergence of certain developing countries, especially Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICs), caused an unprecedented structural change which overshadowed the slower growth of the developed countries at the beginning of 21st century. Brazil and Russia are dominant as suppliers of raw materials; respectively, China and India are the world's dominant suppliers of manufactured goods and services. Thus transportation sector must grow accordingly in order to accommodate the transport of additional goods and raw materials. This phenomenon has boomed the bulk shipping industry.
However, the United States still dominate world stock markets whether it was suffered by the financial crises or not. Hence, this study explores the dynamic causality linkages between Baltic Dry Index and stock markets by applying the daily data from Baltic Dry Index and the stock indices from BRICs and the United States for the period from January 2nd 2003 to June 30th 2008. This study adopts time series methodology included Unit root test, Co-integration test, Vector error correction model (VECM), Vector auto-regression model (VAR), and Granger Causality test to conduct the data.
The empirical results show that all the time series data are non-stationary in levels and stationary in first differences. In addition, the finding demonstrates there exit no co-integration among Baltic Dry Index and the stock markets of the United States and BRICs. However, evidence of Granger causality indicates the fluctuation of the stock markets of China is the main factor to impact the Baltic Dry Index.

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