中國總理溫家寶2004年4月27日宣佈宏觀調控政策，採取強而有力措施，以壓抑中國國內過熱之經濟成長，對於我國的影響係以鋼鐵、電解鋁、水泥、房地產衝擊較大；2005年中國鋼鐵需求量佔全球鋼鐵需求量27.7%，以成為全球最大鋼鐵需求量國家，故中國鋼市足以影響全球鋼鐵市場；我國與中國同處亞洲，在全球化的今天，鋼鐵產業更深受其影響。

本研究為探討政府政策對市場經濟之影響，而以中國宏觀調控政策對鋼價之影響為例，希我國鋼鐵產業對於國家干預政策能有效因應、預為應對。

在實證資料方面鋼價是以CRU亞洲鋼價指數為主要分析變數加以探討，而政策影響因素則選取宏觀調控相關中國總體經濟變數加以分析。利用時間序列資料，分別以單根檢定、變異數分解及衝擊反應等方式檢測中國宏觀調控政策對鋼價之影響以及彼此間長短期交互影響關係。

主要結論分述如下：

一、由衝擊反應分析得知亞洲鋼價指數與宏觀調控相關中國總體經濟變數，確實存在長短期相互影響關係。
二、由變異數分解分析得知亞洲鋼價指數隨著時間之增 加，明顯的由原自本身100%之變異，經過 2004年5月（宏觀調控）後，變異幾乎來自宏觀調控相關之中國總體經濟變數變異。
三、由本研究得知行政干預手段仍然有其意義和功能，是故鋼廠現階 段有意投資中國設廠應採取較審慎保守的作為，注意宏觀調控的實際成效，再決定投資計畫推動之力道與投資速度；同時鋼廠投資對於國家政策干預程度，更應抱持高度評估審慎計畫之態度面對。

The Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s announced the government’s function of macro control coordination on the April, 27th 2004, hope this powerful policy could hold back China’s over heated on economic growth. This also had an impact on the industry of steel, electro-aluminum, cement, and real estate in Taiwan. The demand of steel in China is 27.7% of the whole world, it’s the biggest amount of steel demand on earth, that’s why the China market could influence the steel market of the world, included Taiwan.

This research is going to discuss that how the government’s policy could effect the market economy, and we will take the China government’s function of macro control coordination as an example. The steel industry in Taiwan could learn how to deal with government’s interfere with policy by this as well.

In this research, we use CRU Asia steel index as a main variable to analysis the price of steel, we took the general economic variable of macro control coordination in China as a policy factor to analysis the influence factor. Then we used the sort of time data, such as unit root test, forecast error variance decomposition, and the impulse response function to analysis that what the China government’s function of macro control coordination to do with steel price, and their related connection.

Summarize as follow:

1、From the Impulse Response function analysis, we can tell the Asia steel price has a close relationship with the China’s economic variable of government’s function of macro control coordination.
2、In the error variance decomposition, we can say that the increase of Asia steel price by times, the differentiation is 100% by itself, after the government’s function of macro control coordination in 2004, the differentiation is all by China’s general economic variable.
3、We could tell that interfere with policy really does have it’s meaning and functions, so steel company should be careful to invest in China, better to notice the effect of government’s function of macro control coordination. About government’s interfere with policy, industrialists should considerate and evaluate it more seriously, and come with a prudential plan.

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