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研究生: 安語嫣
Abedalqader, Haneen Najeh Khaled
論文名稱: 關於股票價格崩盤風險的三篇論文
Three Essays on Stock Price Crash Risk
指導教授: 張紹基
Chang, Shao-Chi
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 國際企業研究所
Institute of International Business
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 114
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 65
外文關鍵詞: Stock Price Crash Risk, Trade Policy Uncertainty, Labor Investment Efficiency, Institutional Distance
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  • This dissertation enhances the crash-risk literature through three related essays that incorporate insights from international economics, labor economics, and institutional theory to explore how information frictions stemming from trade policy uncertainty, labor investment inefficiency, and institutional distance create a nonlinear crash risk.
    In the first essay, a global sample of public firms from 17 countries is examined to assess the effect of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on crash risk from 2010 to 2023. The results indicate that higher exposure to TPU significantly increases crash risk, aligning with the idea that managers postpone the disclosure of negative trade-related shocks. Notably, this effect depends on the firm’s information and governance structure. Companies operating in poor information environments, characterized by limited analyst coverage, wide bid–ask spreads, and opaque geographic segment disclosures, experience a much stronger TPU–crash risk relationship. Conversely, firms with greater analyst coverage, more transparent geographic disclosures, and stronger governance mechanisms, such as institutional ownership and independent boards, show a significantly reduced response to trade policy uncertainty. These findings highlight disclosure transparency and monitoring as crucial channels through which policy uncertainty is converted into firm-level downside-tail risk.
    The second essay broadens crash-risk theory into the operational realm by investigating labor investment inefficiency as a source of hidden downside risks. By analyzing of U.S. firms between 2010 to 2023, this study reveals that deviations from optimal labor investment significantly increase crash risk. Evidence suggests that labor misallocation allows operational losses to accumulate gradually before being suddenly revealed. This relationship is intensified in firms with weak information environments and limited market transparency but is significantly weakened by stronger analyst monitoring and governance mechanisms, indicating that external discipline and internal oversight limit managerial discretion and reduce the incentives for concealing bad news.
    The third essay explores how institutional distance affects downside risk in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). Examining 2,100 international acquisitions completed between 2005 and 2023, this study finds that greater institutional distance, particularly political and regulatory divergence, significantly increases acquirer crash risk. These effects are most pronounced when disclosure environments are weak and market liquidity is low, but are substantially mitigated by strong firm-level governance and high-quality country-level institutions. The results emphasize how institutional misalignment creates information and monitoring friction that facilitates the accumulation of hidden losses during post-acquisition integration.
    The three essays collectively enhance the existing literature by broadening the conceptual scope of stock price crash risk. This expansion goes beyond the realm of reporting opacity to include factors such as macroeconomic uncertainty, operational inefficiency and institutional divergence. The essays illustrate that the quality of the information environment and the robustness of governance do not directly mitigate crash risk; they also systematically influence how uncertainty translates into severe negative outcomes. By incorporating international, operational, and institutional aspects into a cohesive framework, this dissertation provides valuable insights for investors, managers, regulators, and policymakers focused on financial stability.

    Abstract iii Acknowledgements v Tables of Contents vi Chapter One: An Introduction 1 Chapter Two: Literature Review and Hypotheses 5 1. Essay 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty 5 1.1. TPU and Crash Risk 5 1.2. The role of information environment quality 6 1.3. The role of governance strengths 7 2. Essay 2: Labor Investment Efficiency 8 2.1. Labor Investment and Crash Risk 8 2.2. The role of information environment quality 10 2.3. The role of governance strengths 11 3. Essay 3: Institutional Distance in Cross-border M&A 11 3.1. Institutional Distance and Crash Risk 11 Chapter Three: Data and Methodology 15 Essay 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty 15 Essay 2: Labor Investment Efficiency 17 Essay 3: Institutional Distance 18 Chapter Five: Empirical Results 23 Chapter Six: Discussions and Conclusions 47 References 50 Appendices 58 Table A1 58 Table A2 59

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