本論文研究了政策不確定性對德國上市公司併購的影響，並針對四個面向進行探討。結果顯示高度政策不確定性會導致併購活動減少，影響的程度在受政府政策影響的產業會更大。而雖然政策不確定性對併購完成時間沒有明顯影響，但公司規模、競爭對手的存在會增加完成併購所需時間。另外在高度不確定性期間，股票支付的使用和比例都會比較低。最後，謹慎行事並不會為併購方帶來正超額報酬，政策不確定性與併購方的報酬之間沒有明顯的正負向關係。

This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Germany. My results show that high uncertainty leads to a decrease in M&A activity, particularly in industries more affected by government policy. However, the time to complete M&A deal is not significantly longer during high uncertainty periods, but firm size and competitor presence increase deal times. Both the use and proportion of stock payments are lower during high uncertainty periods. Additionally, I find that caution during these periods does not result in positive abnormal returns, as there is no significant relation between economic policy uncertainty and the abnormal return of the acquirer.

Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2013). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty (Chicago Booth, Issue 13-02).
Bloom, N., Bond, S., & Reenen, J. V. (2007). Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics.
Brogaard, J., & Detzel, A. (2015). The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty. Management Science, 61(1), 3-18.
Dixit, A. K., & Pindyck, R. S. (1994). Investment under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press.
Duncan, R. B. (1972). Characteristics of Organizational Environments and Perceived Environmental Uncertainty. Administrative Science Quarterly, 17(3), 313-327.
Furfine, C. H., & Rosen, R. J. (2011). Mergers Increase Default Risk. Journal of Corporate Finance, 17(4), 832-849.
Gilchrist, S., Sim, J., & Zakrajsek, E. (2014). Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics (Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Issue.
Greenwald, B. C., & Stiglitz, E. J. (1990). Macroeconomic Models with Equity and Credit Rationing (National Bureau of Economic Research, Issue.
Gulen, H., & Ion, M. (2016). Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment. The Review of Financial Studies, 29(3), 523-564.
Hartman, R. (1972). The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment. Journal of Economic Theory, 5(2), 258-266.
Heckman, J. J. (1979). Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error. Econometrica, 47(1), 153-161.
McDonald, R., & Siegel, D. (1986). The Value of Waiting to Invest. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 101(4), 707-728.
Miller, K. D. (1993). Industry and Country Effects on Managers' Perceptions of Environmental Uncertainties. Journal of International Business Studies, 24(4), 693-714.
Nguyen, N. H., & Phan, H. V. (2017). Policy Uncertainty and Mergers and Acquisitions. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 52(2), 613-644. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022109017000175
Pastor, L., & Veronesi, P. (2013). Political uncertainty and risk premia. Journal of Financial Economics, 110(3), 520-545.
Pindyck, R. (1988). Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm. American Economic Review, 98(5), 969-985.