東亞冬季季風的長期變化趨勢仍未明朗，主因在於既有代理紀錄稀少、空間分布不均，以至於紀錄間常見結果不一致，限制了對冬季季風歷史變遷的整合理解。基於樹輪可能保存冬季氣候訊號之潛力，此研究使用西元1948年至2007年採集自台灣本島的樹輪纖維素穩定氧同位素（δ¹⁸O）之年解析度資料，測試其記錄冬季季風訊號之能力，探討其對冬季季風反應機制，並評估冬季季風重建可行性。研究發現，台灣樹輪δ¹⁸O第一主成分與海平面氣壓型冬季季風指數間於12月呈負相關（r = -0.47，p < 0.001）。後向軌跡類聚顯示，強季風年與弱季風年間氣團來源、軌跡路徑、軌跡頻率以及途經海面溫度存在差異，據此推論上游水汽歷程差異與海面溫度共同影響海氣交互作用，改變台灣冬季全島降水δ¹⁸O特徵，最終記錄於樹輪 δ¹⁸O。迴歸分析表明，年解析度樹輪δ¹⁸O未能可靠重建冬季季風指數，進一步發展年內解析度樹輪δ¹⁸O為增強冬季訊號之關鍵。綜合而言，此研究拓展以樹輪δ¹⁸O作為代理指標重建東亞冬季季風之潛力，並對樹輪δ¹⁸O如何記錄冬季季風訊號提出可供檢驗之機制。

Long-term variability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) remains unclear, while tree rings potentially preserve winter climate signals. This study used approximately 60 years of tree-ring cellulose stable oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) data from Taiwan to evaluate its potential as an EAWM proxy and investigate the recording mechanism. Results showed that the first principal component of Taiwan tree-ring δ¹⁸O negatively correlated with the sea level pressure-based winter monsoon index in December (r = -0.47, p < 0.001). HYSPLIT backward trajectory cluster analysis revealed differences in air mass sources, trajectory paths, frequencies, and sea surface temperatures between strong and weak monsoon years, suggesting a potential mechanism whereby tree-ring δ¹⁸O records EAWM interannual variability through changes in upstream water vapor processes and air-sea interactions. Regression analysis indicated that annual-resolution tree-ring δ¹⁸O could not reliably reconstruct EAWM. This study expands the potential of using tree-ring δ¹⁸O as a proxy indicator for reconstructing EAWM and proposes a testable mechanism for how it records winter monsoon signals.

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