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研究生: 范顥融
Fan, Hao-Jung
論文名稱: 路口左轉管制方式對安全績效之影響與決策準則─以高雄市設置之綠燈早開與遲閉時相為例
Effects of Left-Turn Control Strategies on Intersection Safety Performance and Development of Decision-Making Criteria: A Case Study of Leading and Lagging Green Phases in Kaohsiung City
指導教授: 温谷琳
Wen, Ku-Lin
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 交通管理科學系
Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 114
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 189
中文關鍵詞: 號誌時制綠燈早開綠燈遲閉左轉車流衝突分析
外文關鍵詞: Traffic signal timing plan, leading green phase, lagging green phase, left-turning traffic, conflict analysis
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  • 我國早期路口設計未充分考量左轉車流需求,部分臨近路口缺乏左轉專用車道配置,導致左轉車無法有效紓解,進而影響交通效率。隨著機動車數量逐年增加,路口交通衝突與事故問題亦日益嚴重,其中涉及左轉行為之穿越側撞、擦撞及追撞事故,往往造成較嚴重之人員傷害與財產損失。在現有道路空間限制下,道路主管機關多採用調整交通號誌時制試圖緩解左轉車流問題,最常使用的方式即是設置綠燈早開或遲閉時相,然而這些折衷方案反可能導致更多的交通衝突。由於國內對於這些時相設計缺乏明確的系統性研究和標準,而多依賴傳統或主觀決策,導致各個路口管制方式不一致,駕駛人難以遵循,恐增加混亂和事故發生機會,因此,本研究旨在探討在選擇實施綠燈早開或遲閉時,如何採取較為適當的時相配置方式,並提供基於我國道路環境的評估準則,以降低交通事故和衝突的風險,為相關單位提供設計參考。
    本研究將以「安全」為出發點,以交通衝突角度進行分析,借助影像辨識技術分析左轉衝突型態,透過不同路口所具之車道配置、時相差異、轉向需求等環境因子的比較,以機器學習演算法和建立迴歸模型之方式推論交通衝突事件的發生與綠燈早開、遲閉時相之間可能存在的關聯性及影響趨勢,並嘗試分析不同左轉時相設計所連結的交通衝突態樣。
    在彙整上述觀察結果後,本研究將針對不同左轉時相設計的安全性提出論證,並據以建立一套可供相關主管機關審酌、參考的決策指引,進而採行安全性較高的時制計畫方案。期望透過本研究的分析成果,能減緩左轉車流所帶來的困境,提升我國道路交通安全。

    Early intersection designs in Taiwan underconsidered left-turn operational demand, resulting in insufficient capacity without exclusive left-turn lanes and reduced overall traffic efficiency. As motor vehicles increased, left-turn-related conflicts and crashes—such as crossing, sideswipe, and rear-end collisions—became increasingly severe, causing significant injuries and property losses.
    Due to space constraints, local transportation agencies often rely on signal timing adjustments, such as leading or lagging green phases, rather than geometric improvements to enhance left-turn operations. However, these compromise measures may unintentionally generate additional conflicts or crashes under certain traffic conditions. Furthermore, standardized guidelines for these strategies remain fragmentary in Taiwan. Officials typically rely on subjective judgment or personal experience, leading to inconsistent signal control strategies even across similar intersections, which increases driver uncertainty and crash risks.
    To address this issue, this study investigates appropriate implementation strategies for leading and lagging green phases and establishes evaluation criteria suitable for Taiwan’s roadway environment. Taking a traffic safety perspective, the study utilizes video-based trajectory recognition techniques to analyze traffic conflict patterns as surrogate safety measures. By comparing environmental factors—including lane configurations, signal designs, and turning demands—machine learning algorithms and regression models are employed to explore the relationships between traffic conflicts and leading or lagging green phases, while examining their associations with specific conflict types.
    Based on comprehensive empirical results, this study provides evidence-based discussions on safety performance and proposes decision-making guidelines for signal timing selection. The findings are expected to support safer left-turn control strategies, mitigate left-turn traffic conflicts, and ultimately improve overall roadway safety in Taiwan.

    摘要 1 誌謝 5 目錄 7 圖目錄 10 表目錄 16 第一章、緒論 18 1.1 研究背景與動機 18 1.1.1 左轉車流處理困境 18 1.1.2 早開或遲閉時相的出現與抉擇 20 1.2 問題敘述 20 1.3 研究目的 22 1.4 研究範圍與對象 23 1.5 研究流程 24 第二章、文獻回顧 25 2.1 左轉時相類型 25 2.1.1 各國早開、遲閉時相設計 27 2.1.2 左轉時相設置評估 33 2.2 左轉車涉入事故之分析 33 2.2.1 迴歸模型的建立 33 2.2.2 事故分析方式 34 2.3 左轉車涉入之交通衝突分析 37 2.3.1 交通事故分析模型擴大應用至交通衝突分析 38 2.3.2 衝突分析指標與實作 38 2.3.3 左轉行為的衝突特性 41 2.4 小結 42 第三章、研究方法 43 3.1 交通衝突事件的判定指標 43 3.1.1 TTC(碰撞時間,Time-to-Collision) 43 3.1.2 TET(時間暴露碰撞時間,Time Exposed Time-to-Collision) 45 3.1.3 TIT(時間積分碰撞時間,Time Integrated Time-to-Collision) 46 3.2 應用車流影像辨識軟體進行交通衝突事件分析 47 3.3 衝突事件數據特徵工程與預測模型 49 3.3.1 隨機森林(Random Forest, RF) 49 3.3.2 XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting,極限梯度提升) 49 3.3.3 SHAP Value特徵分析法 50 3.4 衝突事件的事前事後(Before-After)分析 51 3.4.1 迴歸模型的建立方法 51 3.4.2 完全貝氏法(Full Bayes, FB) 52 3.5 小結 55 第四章、研究分析 56 4.1 衝突資料分類與前處理方法 56 4.1.1 由左轉車涉入事故類型定義左轉衝突類型 56 4.1.2 左轉衝突的態樣與分類 57 4.1.3 DFS軟體使用前設定 60 4.2 變數的訂定 60 4.2.1 號誌時相資料 60 4.2.2 道路線型幾何資料 62 4.2.3 車流量資料 62 4.2.4 衝突事件本體資料 62 4.3 研究地點的選定 63 4.4 觀測資料敘述性統計分析 83 4.4.1 衝突類型與嚴重程度分析 83 4.4.2 車種分析 84 4.4.3 個別路口分析 88 4.4.4 小結 96 4.5 以機器學習演算法建立衝突數據庫模型 97 4.5.1 左轉側撞衝突 98 4.5.2 左轉擦撞衝突 98 4.5.3 左轉追撞衝突 99 4.6 以SHAP值分析變數影響程度 100 4.6.1 左轉側撞衝突 100 4.6.2 左轉擦撞衝突 107 4.6.3 左轉追撞衝突 114 4.6.4 小結 125 4.7 迴歸模型的建立與分析 128 4.7.1 左轉側撞衝突 131 4.7.2 左轉擦撞衝突 140 4.7.3 左轉追撞衝突 151 4.7.4 整體左轉衝突 161 4.7.5 路口改善績效 164 4.7.6 小結 165 4.8 迴歸模型DIC檢定 166 4.9 研究分析總結 168 第五章、結論與建議 176 5.1 研究結論 176 5.2 研究限制與後續建議 178 參考文獻 180 附錄 187

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