本研究探討歐盟 31 個國家之國內生產毛額是否會受到碳定價政策的影響。隨著全球氣候暖化問題日益嚴峻，各國政府紛紛採取措施以減少碳排放，目前現行的兩種碳定價機制為碳稅和排放交易系統。本研究同時考慮這兩種機制的影響，也就是將碳稅和排放交易系統的價格合併計算，並使用固定效果模型、動態門檻效應分析和局部投影法來評估碳定價政策對整體產業及工業之 GDP 影響。根據實證結果，本文發現碳定價政策會對 GDP 產生負面影響，且工業相較於整體產業來說 GDP 受到的負面效果更大。另外，若是進一步區分出低碳價格群及高碳價格群的情況下，結果表明實施高碳價格相較於低碳價格對 GDP 所造成的負向影響較小。

This study examines the impact of carbon pricing policies on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 31 EU countries. As global warming becomes increasingly severe, governments are implementing some measures to reduce carbon emissions. There are two types of carbon pricing mechanisms in the world: carbon taxes and emissions trading systems. The research considers the impact of both mechanisms by combining the prices of carbon taxes and emissions trading systems. We use fixed effects model, dynamic threshold effects analysis and local projection method to evaluate the impact of carbon pricing policies on the GDP of both the overall economy and the industrial sector. The empirical results indicate that carbon pricing policies negatively impact GDP, with the industrial sector experiencing a more significant negative effect compared to the overall economy. Furthermore, when distinguishing between low and high carbon price groups, the results show that high carbon prices have a smaller negative impact on GDP compared to low carbon prices.

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