| 研究生: |
林家羽 Lin, Jia-Yu |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
台灣離岸風力發電效益分析 Cost-Benefit Analysis for Development of Offshore Wind Industry in Taiwan |
| 指導教授: |
陳家榮
Chen, Chia-Yon |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
工學院 - 資源工程學系 Department of Resources Engineering |
| 論文出版年: | 2016 |
| 畢業學年度: | 104 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 76 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 離岸風力發電 、投入產出法 、政策效益 、減碳效益 、替代效果 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Offshore Wind, Input-output Analysis, Cost-Benefit, Carbon Reduction Evaluation, Alternative Benefit |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:127 下載:24 |
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對於台灣經濟發展而言,需充足與穩定之電力供應;但台灣乃自產能源匱乏國家,初級能源得仰賴進口取得,若使用化石燃料發電,將造成二氧化碳排放增長。能源安全與環境經濟課題,已成為台灣不容忽視之考驗。為因應節能減碳意識增長,政府積極推廣再生能源,近年來更以發展離岸風力發電作為政策焦點,4C Offshore亦指出台灣富有離岸風力發電發展之潛力。然離岸風力發電能創造多少就業機會與經濟效益仍有待商確。
因此,本研究以離岸風力發電作為研究之案例,探討台灣投資離岸風力發電可創造經濟效果與政策效益。研究中,配合政府裝置容量規劃時程,利用學習曲線理論推估2016年至2040年離岸風力發電投資額與發電量,並將其劃分為建置與運維階段;再以投入產出法計算離岸風力發電創造之各項產業效果;估算政策補貼與燃料替代量,最終模擬至2040年CO2減碳成本,提出未來發展離岸風力發電之建議。
結果顯示,發展離岸風力發電可帶動產出、所得與就業等經濟影響。於建置階段中,若將進口產品國產化,創造的各項經濟影響皆大於尚未國產化,「機械設備」相關部門更因國產化後的直接刺激,促使其在產出值、勞動報酬與就業量等方面均出現大幅之提升;運維階段產生之經濟影響含延續性,但無論建置階段是否將進口品國產化,其產業效果皆高於運維階段。此外,本研究模擬2016年至2040年,每減量一噸CO2所需政策補貼費,介於3,101.39元至9,387.90元間。目前,溫管法罰鍰為1,500元/tCO2e,由此可知,現階段離岸風力發電之減碳成本仍過高,若政府無法給予足夠之補貼,離岸風力發電將不易發展。然而,政府或民間廠商如欲共同善盡保護地球環境之責任,達成無核家園及降低溫室氣體排放等目標,仍需發展離岸風力發電事業。
Taiwan needs sufficient and stable power supply when promoting economic.And then government response to the carbon reduction awareness raising, actively promote renewable energy sources. In recent years, the policy focus on offshore wind power, 4C Offshore claims that Taiwan have rich potential of offshore wind power. However,how many jobs and economic benefits of the offshore wind energy can create?It’s a uncertainly problem. Therefore, this study choose offshore wind as the case studies to further explore Taiwan investment offshore wind can generate economic effects and benefits of the policy. Capacity planning process with the Government, use of the learning curve theory reckoning 2016-2040 offshore wind i––nvestment and generating capacity, and divided offshore wind into setup and operation and maintenance phase, then use the input-output analysis method to calculate offshore wind industry can create the effect; and to estimate the cost of policy subsidies and fuel substitution amount. Finally analog-to-2040 CO2 carbon reduction costs, make recommendations for future development of offshore wind power generation.
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