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研究生： 柯酈
Ko, Li
論文名稱： 臺灣屋頂型太陽光電開發潛力之研究
Assessment of the development potential of rooftop photovoltaic in Taiwan
指導教授： 陳家榮
Chen, Chia-Yon
學位類別： 博士
Doctor
系所名稱： 工學院 - 資源工程學系
Department of Resources Engineering
論文出版年： 2014
畢業學年度： 102
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 232
中文關鍵詞： 屋頂型太陽光電 、地理資訊系統 、二值化法
外文關鍵詞： Rooftop Photovoltaic, Geographic Information Systems(GIS), Binarization Algorithm
相關次數： 點閱：165  下載：22 
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    • 目前全球廣泛使用的化石能源日趨枯竭，其大量使用更造成全球暖化的問題，使得各國對傳統化石能源逐漸產生一定程度的不確定感及不安全感。面對這些挑戰，開發替代性能源成為各國必要的發展策略，以降低其能源供應的潛在風險，並同時解決環境不斷惡化的問題。太陽光電是潔淨的再生能源之一，臺灣地處亞熱帶，太陽光日照強烈，適合發展太陽能，相關研究與應用在國內亦逐步受到重視。
    日射量與裝置容量是影響太陽光發電效益之重要因素，關於裝置容量，過去已有多位學者提出不同之裝置容量推估模式，但大多以使用分區面積、地面層面積、人均面積來計算。然而，其建築物所造成之陰影效應，在評估屋頂型太陽光電發電潛力時，將會嚴重影響到裝置容量之多寡。為了有效計算建築物屋頂陰影區(被遮蔽區)之資訊，本研究基於屋頂可使用面積推估的需求，著眼於實用的角度，提出半自動化步驟進行建築物3D建模，利用Hillshade及Sun Shadow Volume工具模組，將建築物高程資料及不同時段的太陽方位角、高度角加入運算，產生逐時之日照陰影灰階度值，最後經由影像二值化程序，完成建築物屋頂陰影區之計算。
    　　本研究推估臺灣本島屋頂型太陽光電裝設潛力約為12,428.5MW，全年總發電量達15,423.75GWh。依日射量將臺灣區分為：豐日照區、高日照區、中日照區三類。其中豐日照區每瓩年發電量為1,288~1,707度；高日照區每瓩年發電量為1,140~1,242度；中日照區每瓩年發電量為861~992度。此外本研究針對不同日照區及不同級距的屋頂型裝置容量計算其單位發電成本，研究結果顯示單位發電成本除了會隨設備規模擴大而下降外，亦會受到日射量的影響而有明顯變化。以裝置容量500瓩以上為例，年售電量為能源局設定標準1,250度時，單位發電成本每度為5.1309元，豐日照區單位發電成本每度為3.7572~4.9795元，高日照區單位發電成本每度為5.1639~5.6260元，中日照區單位發電成本每度為6.4653~7.4490元。
    　　目前政府統一以5.25%的平均資金成本率來施行躉購費率，未考慮到不同地區、不同日射量及日照時數，本研究以能源局公告之2014年之躉購費率、投資成本等資料，反推2014年第一期的太陽光電平均資金成本率：豐日照區為5.61%~9.30%、高日照區為4.18%~5.17%、中日照區為1.84%~2.65%，顯示發電量較低之中日照區，目前若大力推廣太陽光電將不符合經濟效益，而太陽能資源豐富的中南部地區(即豐日照區)，宜將其列為替代能源重要產地，並加速太陽光電之裝設。

    Currently, because of extensive exploitation, fossil fuel is gradually becoming depleted and global warming issues are increasing. Therefore, numerous countries are concerned about fossil fuel. All nations must develop alternative energy resources to reduce the potential risk of exhausting the available fossil fuel energy supply and resolve environmental degradation. Taiwan is located in the subtropical zone where sunlight is strong and thus developing solar energy is viable. The amount of sunlight and installed power capacity are crucial factors that influence solar photovoltaic (PV) efficiency. Among domestic and international studies, numerous scholars have proposed various installed power capacity estimation modes, which typically calculate areas based on subfields, ground floors, or per capita. However, an evaluation of the potential of solar PV power generation on rooftops indicated that the shadow effect caused by building structures substantially influences the amount of installed power capacity.
    This study aims to effectively compute the shadow areas (shaded areas) on rooftops. From a practical perspective, this study performed architectural 3D modeling using a semi-automated procedure to estimate available rooftop areas. By using the hill shade and sun/shadow volume modules, the buildings’ elevation data and the solar azimuth and altitude angles at different hours were calculated to obtain the hourly sun/shade grayscale values. The grayscale values were then integrated into binary images to calculate the shadow areas on rooftops.
    In Taiwan, the installed power capacity for rooftop photovoltaic is estimated to be approximately 12,428.5 MW and the annual gross generation is approximately 15,423.75GWh. Estimates from economic assessments have shown that regardless of the installed power capacity bracket (range) and sunshine area, all unit power-generation costs exceeded the NT$3.66/kWh for gas-fired power expended by the Taiwan Power Company from public purchases, demonstrating the relative high cost of photovoltaic power generation.
    This study estimated that the maximum and minimum annual power generation volume per kW in rich solar radiation is 1,707 kWh and 1,288 kWh, in high solar radiation is 1,242 kWh and 1,140 kWh, in medium solar radiation is 992 kWh and 861 kWh, respectively. A comparison of the maximum power generation volume in rich solar radiation and the minimum power generation volume in medium solar radiation showed a difference of 846 kWh; thus, central and southern regions of Taiwan (i.e., rich solar radiation), where sunshine is abundantly available, may be selected as key production sites for alternative energy to promote and install a solar photovoltaic system.
    This study estimated the average capital cost rates of photovoltaic systems in the first term of 2014; the results were 5.610%–9.302%, 4.177%–5.174%, and 1.840%–2.648% for rich, high, and medium solar radiation, respectively. Currently, the Taiwanese government charges the tariffs for renewable energy at a unified average capital cost rate of 5.25% without considering factors such as the location, insolation amount, and sunshine hours, which may render installations of photovoltaic systems in low power generation areas unprofitable.Based on the results, this study suggests that the governments should make relevant adjustments according to locations, thereby contributing to the welfare of the public. Related industries may also develop photovoltaic technologies to engender investments and production and promote photovoltaic systems and their effectiveness in providing energy, environmental, and industrial benefits.

    TABLE OF CONTENTS 摘要 II ABSTRACT III 誌謝 V TABLE OF CONTENTS VI LIST OF TABLES VIII LIST OF FIGURES XI Chapter 1　Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Research Objectives and Content 5 1.3 Literature Review 7 1.4 Scope, Limitations, and Assumptions 30 1.5 Research Process and Framework 38 Chapter 2　Photovoltaic Development 40 2.1 The Concept of Solar Energy 40 2.2 Relationship between architecture and solar energy 43 2.3 The development and trend of photovoltaic systems at home and abroad 44 2.4 PV subsidy policy at home and abroad 79 Chapter 3　Data Processing and Model Building 107 3.1 Introduction to Insolation Conditions 107 3.2 Shadow Analysis Algorithm 136 3.3 Introduction to the Geographic Information Systems 138 3.4 Input data items of modeling 141 3.5 Design of the Sun Shadow Model 142 3.6 Display of the Sun Shadow Model in ArcGIS 174 3.7 Economic Evaluation Indicators 183 Chapter 4　The Assessment of Rooftop Photovoltaic Potentials in Taiwan 185 4.1 The Estimated Installed power capacity Potentials of Rooftop Photovoltaic in Taiwan 185 4.2 Cost Analysis of Rooftop PV in Taiwan 211 Chapter 5　Conclusions and Recommendations 218 5.1 Conclusions 218 5.2 Recommendations 222 REFERENCES 224   LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Taiwan’s Development Potential Regarding PV Resources 18 Table 2 Ministry of Economic Affairs Solar Energy Development Goals (Bureau of Energy 1999) 19 Table 3 Explanation of Taiwan’s PV Development Potential (Chen et al. 2010) 20 Table 4 Explanation of Taiwan’s PV Development Potential (Bureau of Energy 2010) 22 Table 5 Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Energy Type and Life Cycle Assessment 29 Table 6 Comparison of Generated Power by Energy Type 30 Table 7 Solar Elevation Angle and Azimuth Angle in Tainan During the Four Seasons 31 Table 8 Average Hours of Sunshine by Month in Tainan (1981–2010) 31 Table 9 Comparison of solar cell materials and performances 42 Table 10 The photovoltaic template specifications 44 Table 11 Changes of German solar power buy-back prices 52 Table 12 Green energy Sunrise program - the photovoltaic industrial policy 62 Table 13 Projection of Taiwan renewable energy installation capacity (MW) 64 Table 14 The advantages and disadvantages of photovoltaics 66 Table 15 The SWOT analysis of our country's photovoltaic technology 68 Table 16 Solar cell technology level - Taiwan vs. Advanced Countries 69 Table 17 Solar power development history of Taiwan 71 Table 18 Categories of main international promotion policies for renewable energy 80 Table 19 Characteristics of RPSand FIP and analysis of their disadvantages 81 Table 20 PV subsidy description 82 Table 21 PV subsidy policy development in different countries in 2010 83 Table 22 Feed-in Tariff regulations 89 Table 23 PV FIT rate from 2009 - 2014 94 Table 24 Parameters collection of PV usage in 2009 96 Table 25 Parameters collection of PV usage in 2010 96 Table 26 Parameters collection of PV usage in 2011 97 Table 27 Parameters collection of PV usage in 2012 98 Table 28 Parameters collection of PV usage in 2013 99 Table 29 Parameters collection of PV usage in 2014 100 Table 30 PV cumulative installed power capacity (MWp) from the previous years 103 Table 31 Taiwan monthly cumulative installed PV capacity (MWp) 104 Table 32 IEA Solar Alliance States’cumulative installed PV capacity (MW) 105 Table 33 Table of comparison of major solar energy development policies in different countries 106 Table 34 Taiwan Solar Radiation Database 115 Table 35 Recommended Indicators for Interior Insolation Time 119 Table 36 Yongkang Station’s 2011 Daily Global Solar Radiation Data 120 Table 37 Yongkang Station’s 2011 Daily Insolation Duration Data 122 Table 38 Yongkang Station’s Monthly Average Duration of Insolation and Temperature Between 1981 and 2010 124 Table 39 Taiwan Sunlight Duration 126 Table 40 Hourly Global Solar Radiation Data for Yongkang Station in 2011 127 Table 41 Hourly Global Solar Radiation Ratio for Each Month in 2011 at Yongkang Station 128 Table 42 Latitudes of Key Cities in Taiwan 133 Table 43 The Declination During Taiwan’s 24 Solar Terms 134 Table 44 Grayscale Grid Classification and Frequency (Partial) 164 Table 45 Rooftops areas suitable for bright spots in Yongkang District (Unit: Square Meter) 172 Table 46 Districts and Areas in Urban Planning Districts in 2011 186 Table 47 Assessment Process, Formulas, and Data of Rooftop PV Potential in Taiwan 188 Table 48 Developmental Potential of PV Resources in Taiwan 190 Table 49 Installable Area Ratio of Rooftop PV in Yongkang District, Tainan City 192 Table 50 Installable Area Ratio of Rooftop PV 193 Table 51 Estimated Proportion of Installed power capacity of Rooftop PV in Taiwan 194 Table 52 Generating Capacity of Rooftop PV of Yongkang District in Tainan City (partial data) 195 Table 53 Simulation of Electricity Generating Capacity of Yongkang District in Tainan City 2009-October 2013 (GWh) 196 Table 54 Solar Radiation Zoning in Taiwan 199 Table 55 Installed power capacity and Generating Capacity of Rooftop PV in Taiwan Counties and Cities 207 Table 56 Parameters for Calculating Initial Implementation Cost of PV Systems 2009-2014 208 Table 57 Annual Average PV System Installed power capacity in Taiwan (MWp) 209 Table 58 Identified Capacity (kW) of Installed PV Systems 2009-2014 209 Table 59 Estimated Initial Installation Costs of PV Systems and Renewal Energy Purchase Rates by Installed power capacity Intervals 211 Table 60 Taiwan Household Electricity Rates 212 Table 61 Unit Generating Cost of Rooftop PV (2014 Phase 1) in the equivalent cash flows 213 Table 62 Average Capital Cost Rate 2014 Phase 1 216   LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Installed power capacity of Renewable Energy by Equity Group in Germany 2012 2 Figure 2 World Electricity Generation by Fuel 3 Figure 3 Effects of Global Warming 3 Figure 4 Stand-alone Solar Energy Storage System 14 Figure 5 Schematic Diagram of Stand-alone Power Generation Systems 15 Figure 6 Hybrid PV System 16 Figure 7 Schematic Diagram of Hybrid Power Generation System 16 Figure 8 Grid-connected PV Systems 17 Figure 9 Schematic Diagram of Grid-connected Systems 18 Figure 10 PV Panels Installed with a Tilt Angle of 23.5° 35 Figure 11 Research Flowchart 38 Figure 12 The installation angles, directions and efficiencies of photovoltaic templates 43 Figure 13 Solar energy related policies 45 Figure 14 The R&D investments on renewable energy technology by OECD countries 47 Figure 15 Growth trend of the global solar energy installation capacities 48 Figure16 The cost variations of photovoltaic systems of leading countries 50 Figure17 The cost variations of photovoltaic modules of leading countries 50 Figure18 The distribution of Taiwan photovoltaic installation quantities(a) and volumes(b) by year and type 59 Figure19 The global renewable energy growth rate 66 Figure20 The production values of Taiwan photovoltaic industry 74 Figure21 Taiwan photovoltaic industry production capacity 75 Figure22 statistical chart of the incremented amount of PV device from 2000 to 2010 in Taiwan. 77 Figure23 Change in global energy capacity increased (GW) 86 Figure24 Changes of the global new renewable resource capacity(GW) 87 Figure25 Distribution of energy grid loading and storage need (assuming wind power change of 15%) 88 Figure26 Taiwanese parallel system of PV power generator system 102 Figure27 cumulative installed PV capacity (MWp) from the previous years 104 Figure28 Solar Radiation on the Earth’s Horizontal Surface 109 Figure29 Global Insolation Distribution 114 Figure30 The Earth’s True Motion 117 Figure31 The Sun’s Apparent Motion 117 Figure32 Yongkang Station’s Monthly Average Global Solar Radiation for 2009–2013(MJ/m2) 123 Figure33 Yongkang Station’s Total Global Solar Radiation in October from 2009–2013(MJ/m2) 124 Figure34 Yongkang Station’s 2011 Monthly Insolation Duration Rate and the Average Monthly Insolation Duration Rate for the Period of 1981–2010 125 Figure35 Ratio of Hourly Horizontal Surface Direct Radiation Each Month 128 Figure36 Hourly Horizontal Surface Direct Radiation Ratio during Spring 129 Figure37 Hourly Horizontal Surface Direct Radiation during Summer 129 Figure38 Hourly Horizontal Surface Direct Radiation Ratio during Fall 129 Figure39 Hourly Horizontal Surface Direct Radiation Ratio during Winter 130 Figure40 Elevation Angle of the Sun 131 Figure41 Solar Azimuth Angle 132 Figure42 Declination Illustration 133 Figure43 Building Heights in the Yongkang District of Tainan City (unit: meter) 143 Figure44 Sun Shadow Calculation Process 144 Figure45 Difference between Polygon Features and Point Features 145 Figure46 Sun Elevation and Azimuth Angles of the Four Seasons in Taiwan 146 Figure47 The Solar Azimuth Angle Used in the Hillshade Diagram 147 Figure48 The Sun’s Elevation Angle Used in the Hillshade Diagram 147 Figure49 Ray Tracing Method 147 Figure50 Shadowed Areas with Different Sun Angles 149 Figure51 3×3 Grid 151 Figure52 Input Elevation Grid 153 Figure53 Building Zoning Layer of Yongkang District in Tainan City 155 Figure54 Partial Enlargement of the Building Zoning Layer of Yongkang District in Tainan City 156 Figure55 Raster Grayscale Grids Converted from Polygon Features for Different Time Periods during Summer Solstice 157 Figure56 Raster Grayscale Grid Converted from Polygon Features for Different Periods during Spring and Autumn Equinox 159 Figure57 Raster Grayscale Grids Converted from Polygon Features for Different Periods during Winter Solstice 161 Figure58 Grayscale Value at 09:00 during Summer Solstice (Red Colored Value is the Building Height) 161 Figure59 Grayscale Value at 12:00 during Summer Solstice (Red Colored Value is the Building Height) 162 Figure60 Values in the Research Grayscale Grid 163 Figure61 Binarization Segmentation 165 Figure62 Block Diagrams of Binarized Image Analysis 167 Figure63 Binarization Analysis of an 8-bit Image 168 Figure64 Result of the Binarization of an 8-bit Image 168 Figure65 Image Showing an Uneven Light Field 169 Figure66 The Binarization Condition When the Image Light Field is Uneven and Only One Specific Threshold Value is Obtained 170 Figure67 The Binarization of Dynamic Threshold Value when the Image Light Field is Uneven 171 Figure68 Distribution of Shadow Grayscale Values of the Rooftops in Tainan City, Yongkang District During Summer Solstice, Spring Equinox, Autumn Equinox, and Winter Solstice 172 Figure69 Distribution of Shadow Grayscale Values of the Rooftops in Tainan City, Yongkang District During Summer Solstice 173 Figure70 Distribution of Shadow Grayscale Values of the Rooftops in Tainan City, Yongkang District During Summer Solstice at 06:00. 173 Figure71 Rooftops Areas of Tainan City, Yongkang District, Suitable for bright spots During Summer Solstice, Spring Equinox, Autumn Equinox, and Winter Solstice 174 Figure72 Managing Process of ArcGIS Sun Shadow Display 175 Figure73 Partial Point Features of Yongkang District, Tainan City 177 Figure74 Polygon Features of Partial Point Feature Overlays in Tainan City, Yongkang District 177 Figure75 Partial Point Features and Building Volumes of Yongkang District, Tainan City 178 Figure76 Building Distribution of an Area in Yongkang District, Tainan City 178 Figure77 Stereo Display of Building Volume Displayed in ArcGIS 179 Figure78 2D Insolation and Shadow Display in ArcGIS (Spring Equinox) 180 Figure79 2D Insolation and Shadow Display in ArcGIS (Summer Solstice) 181 Figure80 2D Insolation and Shadow Display in ArcGIS (Autumn Equinox) 182 Figure81 2D Insolation and Shadow Display in ArcGIS (Winter Solstice) 183 Figure82 Cash Flow Graph 184 Figure83 Developmental potential of PV resources in Taiwan 192 Figure84 Installable area ratio of rooftop PV in Yongkang District, Tainan City. 193 Figure85 365-day simulation of electricity generating capacity of Yongkang District in Taiwan City in 2011. 196 Figure86 Simulation of electricity generating capacity of Yongkang District in Tainan City 2009-October 2013 (GWh) 197 Figure87 Solar Radiation Zoning in Taiwan 200 Figure88 Taiwan sunlight distribution map (kWh/m2/day) 201 Figure89 Taiwan global solar radiation map (cal/cm2/day) 202 Figure90 Taiwan sunlight map (hourly) 203 Figure91 Taiwan meteorological stations on a Voronoi diagram 205 Figure92 Identified Capacity (%) of Installed PV Systems 2009-2014 210

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