面對氣候變遷導致的水文變異與極端乾旱事件發生頻率上升，傳統水庫營運規線已難以應對未來非定常水文條件對供水穩定性的挑戰。本研究以南化水庫及甲仙攔河堰系統為例，結合氣候模式模擬資料與降雨—逕流模式，評估氣候變遷對入流變化的影響，並透過階層式集群分析辨識未來流量變異特徵，進而建立具適應性之水庫營運策略。本研究採用CMIP6模式所模擬之SSP2-4.5及SSP5-8.5排放情境下的氣候資料，經由極限學習機(ELM)建構降雨—逕流模式推估受氣候變遷影響流量，再依據豐水期與枯水期流量變異進行分群，將未來流量資料劃分為三種水文狀況。在各群不同情境水文狀況以多目標優化模式建立適應氣候變遷之最佳規線，模式考量同時最小化最大單旬缺水率(XSR)、最大連續缺水量(XCS)與總缺水率(TSR)等缺水特性，並以各分群目標函數之中位數選取具代表性的營運規線，建立差異化營運規線，適應未來可能不同的水文狀況。研究結果顯示，南化水庫在氣候變遷情境下，於近未來與中未來期間枯水期流量平均減少約8–14%，豐水期流量則會增加7–16%。各分群代表性營運規線相較於原營運策略，在最大單旬缺水率(XSR)方面可降低約40%至58%，最大連續缺水量(XCS)平均改善幅度達49%；而總缺水率(TSR)雖改善幅度相對有限，仍可在各群中降低約2.7% 至7.5%。整體而言，代表性營運規線可顯著改善原營運策略於不同氣候變遷情境下的供水不穩定性。透過集群分析導入分群調適機制，有助於減緩氣候模式不確定性對營運決策之干擾，可作為氣候變遷下水資源管理與水庫營運策略規劃之重要參考。

Climate change has intensified hydrological variability and increased the frequency of extreme drought events, which pose challenges to the reliability of traditional reservoir operation rule curves under future non-stationary conditions. This study focuses on the Nanhua Reservoir and Jiaxian Weir system in southern Taiwan to evaluate impacts of climate change on performance of reservoir operation. Climate projections from CMIP6 models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 are utilized to simulate future precipitation, which are then served as inputs to the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) based rainfall-runoff model to project reservoir inflow data. Hierarchical clustering analysis categorizes future inflow patterns into three groups based on the similarity of wet-and-dry-season streamflow. For each group, a multi-objective optimization model searches for adaptive rule curves that minimize the maximum single-period shortage rate (XSR), the maximum consecutive shortage (XCS), and the total shortage rate (TSR). Representative rule curves are chosen based on the median performance within each cluster. The results indicate that the dry season inflows may decline by 8–14%, while the wet season inflows may increase by 7–16%. Compared to the current operating rules, adaptive rule curves reduce XSR by 40–58%, improve XCS by an average of 49%, and cause reductions of 2.7–7.5% in TSR. The proposed cluster-based adaptive operation approach enhances water supply reliability and provides a robust framework for climate-resilient reservoir planning and management.

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