自2008年立法委員選制改革並於2012年起實施總統與立委合併選舉以來，臺灣選民在同一天須面對總統、區域立委與不分區政黨票三張選票，使「一致投票」與「分裂投票」成為理解選民投票行為的重要議題。然而，既有研究多聚焦制度面或單一年度分析，較少從心理因素與理性認知的交互作用進行跨時比較。本研究以2012年至2024年四屆總統與立法委員選舉為分析範圍，運用臺灣選舉與民主化調查（TEDS）資料，探討情感極化與政治知識對一致與分裂投票的影響。研究設計上，以一致與分裂投票為二元依變數，情感極化與政治知識為主要自變數，採用二元勝算對數模型進行分析，並納入相關控制變數，檢驗其直接效果與交互作用。
實證結果顯示，情感極化對投票行為具有高度穩定的影響。情感極化程度愈高的選民，愈傾向在不同選舉層級支持相同政黨，進行一致投票；情感極化較低者，則較可能出現分裂投票。此結果顯示，在台灣混合選制下，情感因素已成為選民決策的重要基礎，並展現跨時穩定性。相較之下，政治知識的影響較為複雜。整體而言，政治知識較高的選民較能理解選制差異，因而更可能進行分裂投票。然而，在納入交互作用後發現，政治知識具有調節效果：當政治知識程度較高時，情感極化對一致投票的正向影響會顯著減弱，顯示政治知識有助於中和情緒性動機。整體而言，本研究透過跨時資料與選票組合分析，系統性檢驗情感極化與政治知識如何共同形塑臺灣選民的投票行為，不僅補充既有的相關研究，也突顯情感極化在當代臺灣選舉中的關鍵角色，對理解政黨競爭與民主運作具有重要意涵。

Since the introduction of concurrent presidential and legislative elections in 2012, Taiwanese voters have been required to cast three ballots on the same day, making straight-ticket and split-ticket voting crucial issues in understanding electoral behavior. However, previous studies have largely focused on institutional factors or single-election analyses, with limited attention to the interaction between psychological and cognitive influences from a longitudinal perspective. Using data from Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS), this study examines the effects of affective polarization and political knowledge on straight-ticket and split-ticket voting in national elections from 2012 to 2024. Straight-ticket versus split-ticket voting is treated as the binary dependent variable, while affective polarization and political knowledge are the main independent variables. Binary logit models are employed to test both direct and interaction effects.
The findings indicate that affective polarization has a stable and consistent impact on voting behavior. Voters with higher levels of affective polarization are more likely to vote for the same party across different electoral levels, whereas those with lower levels of affective polarization are more likely to split their votes. In contrast, political knowledge shows a more complex pattern. Voters with higher levels of political knowledge are generally more likely to engage in split-ticket voting. Moreover, political knowledge moderates the effect of affective polarization, significantly weakening its positive influence on straight-ticket voting. Overall, this study highlights the joint roles of emotional and cognitive factors in shaping voter behavior under Taiwan’s mixed electoral system.

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