由於家戶遷移時會因換屋所產生的高交易成本而影響其遷移與否，又擁屋者換屋時交易成本較租屋者高，因此一般研究認為擁屋者較不可能遷移。此外相關研究顯示，決定住宅權屬選擇最重要的因素為家戶居住期長短，若預期在短期間內遷移者則較不可能選擇購屋。基於這樣的背景認知，似應將家戶之權屬選擇與預期遷移決策視為一同時性、互為因果的決策，才得以更正確地描述家戶權屬選擇與預期遷移的聯合決策行為。
　　然而國內相關研究尚未將預期未來遷移決策對權屬選擇之影響進行一同時性決策之探討，其在估計上採多項Logit是認為決策並無因果關係，或採巢式Logit估計是認為決策有決定的先後重要順序關係存在；本研究則嘗試以聯立Logit模型驗證兩決策應屬同時決定之關係，並以二階段法估計以解決多項Logit估計上IIA之問題。
　　實證研究應用「華人家庭動態資料庫」之資料，建立權屬選擇與預期遷移決策之聯立Logit模型，先以多項Logit最大概似法進行估計，再分別建立兩個決策之遞迴Logit模型，最後建立一聯立區分Logit模型以檢定其聯立因果關係。
　　實證估計結果發現，兩個內生變數(權屬選擇、預期遷移決策)間之影響皆具顯著性，為負向變動關係；兩決策間確實存在因果關係且屬聯立結構。解釋變數中的年齡、婚姻狀況對權屬選擇具顯著性，為正向變動關係；戶量會對預期遷移決策有顯著影響，為負向變動關係。

　　Since there is a cost associated with ownership (the transactions cost of selling a house) and the various cost of renting a dwelling exceeds the various cost of owning an equivalent unit, and related researches show that the portal factor in determining the least costly tenure alternative is the length of time the household stays at a given location, thus the longer a household stays at a given location the more likely it is that the household will choose to own a house. Thus, the probability that a household makes a given tenure choice and expects to move should be estimated as a simultaneous system of equations.
　　However, related researches on the topic are scant, some of them didn’t consider the two decisions are causal chain relation and estimated the relationship by using the multinomial Logit model, some researches considered two decisions are determined in order and estimated by using the nested multinomial Logit model. This dissertation is to test the hypothesis that they are simultaneously determined by using a simultaneous Logit model. To improve the multinomial Logit model in dealing with the problem that the independence from irrelevant alternatives, this simultaneous Logit model is estimated by a two-stage procedure.
　　This study uses the Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD) to establish the simultaneous choice Logit model on tenure choice and prospective moving decision. The model will estimate by using maximum likelihood method of multinomial Logit first. Second, the two bivariate recursive models will be established. A simultaneous discriminative Logit model is finally established in order to test the causal relation between two decisions.
　　In the empirical analysis it was found that the coefficient on the endogenous variables (tenure choice and prospective moving decision) is negative and significant. The effects of a vector of independent variables on the household’s tenure choice and prospective moving decision are causal and simultaneously determined. In addition, we note that the effects of age and marital status are significant and positive on the probability of ownership, and the effects of the size of family is significant and negative on the probability of prospective moving.

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