| 研究生: |
吳一凡 Wu, Yi-Fan |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
不同情緒指標房價預測能力之比較研究 Comparative Study on the Predictive Power of Different Sentiment Indicators for House Prices |
| 指導教授: |
林姿妤
Lin, Tzu-Yu |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
| 論文出版年: | 2023 |
| 畢業學年度: | 111 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 31 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 房價 、情緒指標 、樣本内預測 、樣本外預測 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | house prices, sentiment indicators, in-sample prediction, out-of-sample prediction |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:138 下載:17 |
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本研究旨在探討情緒指標對房價預測能力的影響,並比較不同情緒指標的預測效能。研究構建了網路搜尋量指數、房地產相關股票指數以及消費者信心指數作為情緒指標,並使用樣本內預測模型和樣本外預測進行實證分析。研究結果顯示,情緒指標對房價預測能力有顯著影響,且不同情緒指標的預測效能存在差異。研究還進行了穩健性檢定,結果顯示研究結果的穩健性得到了驗證。總體而言,情緒指標可以作為房價預測的重要參考因素,在實務應用中應根據具體情況選擇適當的情緒指標進行預測。
This paper aims to investigate the impact of emotional indicators on the predictive power of housing prices, and to compare the predictive performance of different emotional indicators. The study constructs the Internet search volume index, real estate-related stock index, and consumer confidence as emotional indicators, and uses in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts for empirical analysis. The results show that emotional indicators have a significant impact on the predictive power of housing prices, and there are differences in the predictive performance of different emotional indicators. The study also conducts robustness tests, and the results show that the robustness of the study results has been verified. Overall, emotional indicators can serve as important reference factors for housing price prediction. In practical applications, appropriate emotional indicators should be selected for prediction based on specific circumstances.
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