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研究生: 陳祈天
Tanaja, Angie Anggana
論文名稱: The Impact of US Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing on Stock Markets: The Comparison between Developed and Emerging Countries
The Impact of US Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing on Stock Markets: The Comparison between Developed and Emerging Countries
指導教授: 謝惠璟
Hsieh, Hui-Ching Sana
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 國際經營管理研究所
Institute of International Management
論文出版年: 2015
畢業學年度: 103
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 81
外文關鍵詞: Stock price, US quantitative easing, Macroeconomic variables, VECM, Johansen cointegration test
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  • This research examined the impact of US Federal Reserve QE monetary policy on stock markets in several countries outside the US. There are seven countries classified as developed countries (Germany, Japan, UK), competing countries (China, Russia), and emerging countries (Indonesia, South Africa). Different economic conditions questioned the presence of different impact on stock markets during US QE monetary policy. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) time series regression is utilized in order to capture long-term relationship and short-term relationship of macroeconomic variables towards stock prices. It is found that impact of US QE monetary policy in developed countries is negligible, except for Germany. Moreover, the impact of US QE in China and Russia are also not significant. While, the emerging countries which performing higher economic growth than developed countries are significantly affected by US QE monetary policy. In addition, by adding the dummy variable TQE, the impact of US tapering QE in seven countries studied is heading to inconclusive result. The commitment of the Fed to maintain the Fed funds rate low at the range of 0 – 0.25% post-QE be the potential reason for this finding.

    TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ............. I ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......... II TABLE OF CONTENTS ............ III LIST OF TABLES ............ VI LIST OF FIGURES ............ VIII CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION .......... 1 1.1 Research Background. ..... .... ... 1 1.1.1 History of US Quanti . .... .... 1 1.1.2 The Role of Primary Dealers in QE Transmission. .... 3 1.1.3 QE: Pros and Cons. .... .... .. 5 1.1. 4 The Dilemma for Global Markets. .... .... 6 1.1.5 Developed Countries. . .... .... .. 8 1.1.6 Emerging Countries. .... .... ... 9 1.2 Research Motivation. .... .... ... 12 1.3 Research Objectives. .... .... ... 12 1.4 Research Gap. . .... .... .... 13 1.5 Research Procedure and Outline. .... .... . 14 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW....... 15 2.1 The Impact of US Quantitative Easing. .... ... 15 2.1.1 The Impact of QE Monetary Policy on the US Economy. . ... 15 2.1.2 The Impact of QE Monetary Policy on the Global Economy. ... 17 2.1.3 The Impact of Tapering QE on Money Flow. .... .. 18 2.1.4 Capital 2.1.4 Capital .... .... 19 2.2 Macroeconomic Variables as the Determinants of Stock Returns. .. 20 2.2.1 Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). .... .... 20 2.2.2 Macroeconomic Determinants of the Stock Market Movement. . . 21 2.3 Hypothesis Development. .... .... .. 25 2.4 Summary. .... .... .... . 30 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY .... 33 3.1 Variable Selection and Data Collection. .... .... 33 3.2 Research Procedure. .... .... .... 35 3.2.1 Unit Root Test. .... .... ... 36 3.2.2 Johansen Cointegration Test. .... .... 36 3.2.3 Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). .... ... 37 3.3 The Expectation of the Result. .... .... .. 40 CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH RESULTS ....... 42 4.1 Descriptive Statistics. .... .... .... 42 4.2 Correlation Matrix. .... .... .... 48 4.3 Unit Root Tests. .... .... ..... 49 4.4 The Impact of US QE on Stock Markets in Various Economies. .... .... .. 53 4. 4.2 Competing Countrie .... .... . 56 4.4.3 Emerging Countries . .... .... ... 58 4.5 The Significance of Tapering QE towards Stock Returns. .... 61 CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS ...... 64 5.1 Research Conclusions and Implications. .... ... 64 5.2 Research Limitations and Future Study. .... .... 66 REFERENCES ............ 68 APPENDICES ............. 71

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