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研究生: 陳怡頻
Chen, Yi-Ping
論文名稱: 變形微分區計算與監測週期對應分析
Computing the Microzonation of Deformation and the Analysis of Corresponding Monitoring Period
指導教授: 余騰鐸
Yu, Ting-To
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 資源工程學系
Department of Resources Engineering
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 69
中文關鍵詞: 變形監測地震再現機率監測週期監測微分區
外文關鍵詞: deformation monitoring, potential earthquake probabilities, monitoring period, microzonation of monitoring
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  •   台灣地殼的運動頻繁,造就了許多的地形變化與斷層活動,容易影響公共建設的安全性,因此需要定期來進行監測與維修。結構的健康定期監測與檢驗是必須的,並且需要依狀態異動來更新其性能預測的模型。然而因經費與時間的關係,每次均進行全面性的自動連續監測是不符合實際的需求,為達到最有效的成本效益下之監測策略,首先是對結構的性能進行評估與預測,從地質環境至危害原因及機制進行詳細的討論。
      本研究區域選定於國道三號中寮隧道一帶及屏東士文水庫預定壩址區域,利用地震災害、地滑及斷層活動性等災害因子,進行災害結構變形之評估,並以災害微分區進行討論以分析對應的監測週期。
      在斷層滑移部分,利用研究區域附近內政部GPS基準站資料,進行小區域的位移方向及水平位移量內插,並針對跨斷層GPS測站進行週平均位移之振幅統計,其振幅範圍在±5mm之間,加上考慮監測結構物之強度容許誤差值,推定本研究區域最小觀測期必須為六到八個月。
      地震災害潛勢部分以過去地震資料與隧道維修紀錄或設計耐震度為基礎,並考慮地形放大效應,利用台灣V30剪力波速度將規模距離關係式修正來適合本研究區域使用,計算出地震再現機率與對應影響範圍,其五年及十年地震發生對隧道之損壞機率為0.47及0.53。
      本研究最後根據中央地調所提供之區域崩塌潛勢圖討論其地滑趨勢,並將上述兩項結果綜合,依狀況分為三部分並針對各區域監測特性分別考量來討論監測規劃。
      研究結果顯示各工址之災害因子各不相同,應該根據其災害因子對工址之影響區域做微分區劃分,並依照各致災因子對建築物的損害機制與觀測週期來做為各微區域監測方法選擇與警戒值設立的依據。

    Intensely crustal movement in Taiwan that creating frequently terrain change and also fault scarps. The public construction of the region thus become vulnerable by the threat of such crustal movement. Thus the reason, routine maintenance to those public constructions are required. As the result, structural health monitoring should be performed, and the coresponding prediction model should be renew periodically. Although the complete continuous monitoring is not practical because of the time consuming and limited financial resources. Therefore, planning a cost-effective methodology to cover enough turfs of public structures monitoring is necessary. For fulfill this purpose, it is necessary to assess and also predict the anti-hazardous performance of structures by the terms of geology and also risk factors.
    Area of Zhongliao tunnel at Southern Taiwan is the main testing site, and earthquake damage, landslide and fault rupture are the major risk factors for assessing the deformation of structures. Analysis of potential threats is performed by the method of hazardous micro-zonation for the purpose in analyzing the corresponding monitoring period.
    Regarding to the fault slip part, this work interpolated the GPS data of MDI nearby the study area for estimating both the direction and horizontal displacement. Using the GPS data which located across the fault for counting the amplitude of displacement on the weekly basis, and the found amplitude range is about ±5mm.Considering the error tolerance of structure in the study area, we thus determine the minimum observation time period with is method should be six to eight months at least.
    Earthquake hazard potential analysis is based upon historical seismic data and also the maintains records of local tunnels with extra consideration of the topographic amplification effect. The scaling relationship of study area is amendments by using V30 shear wave velocity in Taiwan area, then calculating the probabilities and also the threaten zone of further earthquake damage. It shows that the probabilities of earthquake damage at the local tunnel is 0.47 in 5 years and 0.53 in 10 years, respectively.
    According to the landslide potential map of CGS plus the above two referred results, this testing site have been divided into to three different parts and discuss the individual monitoring plan, case by case.
    This study show that the various sites have its own hazard potential and should compartmentalize the site to a small areas according to various threats. According to the different destroying mechanism and observing period, it can be served as the fundamental figures in deciding the monitoring plan and also set up the alarm threshold in each hazard micro-zonation.

    摘要...........................I Abstract ....................III 誌謝...........................V 目錄..........................VI 圖目錄........................IX 表目錄........................XI 一、緒論................................1 1.1研究動機.............................1 1.2研究流程.............................2 二、文獻回顧............................5 2.1 自動監測............................5 2.2事前推估及預測方法...................6   2.2.1 變形量測.......................7   2.2.2 地滑潛勢分析..................11   2.2.3 地震危害度分析................12 三、研究方法...........................16 3.1微分區定義..........................16 3.2 台灣常見災害因子...................17 3.3 研究區域...........................19   3.3.1 斷層錯動......................20   3.3.2 地震震災......................22   3.3.3 邊坡滑動......................23 3.4 基本資料彙整.......................24 3.5 地表變形...........................24   3.5.1 水平位移速度內插計算..........25   3.5.2 振幅統計......................26 3.6 地震危害度分析.....................27   3.6.1 柏松模式......................28   3.6.2指數分布模式...................29   3.6.3再現機率函數...................29   3.6.4 特徵地震發生機率模型..........30   3.6.5震源距離推算...................32   3.6.6 再現機率計算..................35 四、分析成果...........................37 4.1 斷層水平位移分析...................37   4.1.1 位移量計算....................38   4.1.2 周變化統計....................41 4.2 地震再現機率計算...................46   4.2.1地震再現周期...................47   4.2.2 再現機率模型建立..............51   4.2.3 距離關係式修正與範圍計算......53   4.2.4 機率計算......................56 4.3研究區域綜合比較與討論..............57 五、結論與建議.........................60 5.1 結論...............................60 5.2 建議...............................62 六、參考文獻...........................64

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