| 研究生: |
謝安琪 Hsieh, An-Chi |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
以分類迴歸樹模式探討平交道事故肇因與風險水準 Investigation of Crash Factors and Risk Levels at Highway-Railroad Grade Crossings Using Classification and Regression Tree |
| 指導教授: |
胡守任
Hu, Shou-Ren |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 交通管理科學系 Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science |
| 論文出版年: | 2013 |
| 畢業學年度: | 101 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 97 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 鐵路平交道 、分類迴歸樹 、負二項迴歸 、彈性分析 、風險矩陣 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | highway-railroad grade crossing, classification and regression tree, negative binomial regression, elasticity analysis, risk matrix |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:193 下載:1 |
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「鐵路平交道」係指鐵路與公路在平面交會之處,涵蓋了兩種不同的運輸系統,並設置交通控制設備,以確保列車行經時之安全。在此特殊區域內,鐵路側的列車擁有優先路權,當列車駛近時,公路側之車輛必須禮讓列車優先通行;惟因公路駕駛人不耐久候、缺乏相關認知,以及交控設備設計缺失等因素,導致用路人違規搶越或闖入平交道的情形,因而所造成的平交道事故,導致龐大的生命財產損失與社會成本支出。有鑑於此,有必要針對鐵路平交道事故發生的肇因與潛在的風險,進行深入的探討與研究,並研擬相關改善策略。
本研究旨在藉由兩階段式的階層式迴歸樹模式 (two-stage hierarchical tree-based regression model) 探討導致平交道事故發生的主要肇因,藉以改善傳統單階層式統計模式在模式校估上的缺失,更精確的發掘影響平交道安全水準的因素與影響程度;並藉由平交道風險矩陣的建構,作為風險管理之依據。在實證研究方面,本研究利用近幾年國內最新平交道屬性與詳細事故資料作為分析基礎,據以評估改善我國平交道安全措施之優先順序。
Although traffic collisions at highway-railroad grade crossing (HRGXs) are rare incidents, they might incur significant number of casualties and different degrees of property losses. This research investigates the factors that have effects on the occurrence of the traffic collisions at HRGXs. This research applies classification and regression tree (CART), a two-stage classification and regression approach, to identify the key factors that are responsible for traffic collisions at HRGXs to resolve some the theoretical problems associated with the traditional one-stage count data statistical models. For risk management, this research also constructs a risk matrix of the HRGXs. Using the HRGX crash and grade crossing inventory data provided by Taiwan Railways Administration (TRA) during 2008~2010 in Taiwan, the empirical study aims to provide the rail agency with reference about how to assess the priority for a safety improvement program.
中文部分
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校內:2018-08-24公開