本研究以台灣南部荖濃流域之子集水區為研究區域，以2009年莫拉克颱風為研究降雨事件，結合邊坡穩定分析模型與統計模型的方法，以預測降雨誘發山崩之潛勢，本研究使用地理資訊系統(Geographic Information System；GIS)為工具，並利用安全係數率定對各種強度參數(凝聚力、摩擦角)與水力參數(水力傳導係數及飽合土壤導水係數)進行逆分析，以區域性臨界降雨模式計算各網格之臨界降雨量，將颱風事件中最大日降雨量與臨界降雨量之差值定義為降雨強度差，以降雨強度差與降雨延時做為解釋變量，進行羅吉斯迴歸分析並建置山崩潛感值模型並繪製山崩潛勢圖。以羅吉斯迴歸分析所建置山崩潛感值模型，其分析結果山崩準確85.76[%]，總體準確率85.98[%]。
區域性臨界降雨量模式可分析範圍受限於地形條件，因此本研究提出邊坡淺層破壞之警示雨量估算模式分析邊坡表土層入滲深度，以常態化差異植生指標(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index，NDVI)做為入滲比例參數，利用WINSTABL程式分析誘發淺層滑動面表土層入滲深度，其造成滑動破壞之入滲深度為臨界深度，以求得局部邊坡淺層破壞之警示雨量及邊坡達到警示雨量淺層破壞面。

In this study, we take the Laonong watershed area in southern Taiwan as study area and the Morakot typhoon (Aug. 2009) as rainfall event to analyze the susceptibility of heavy-rainfall-induced landslides with methodology combined with slope stability analysis models and statistical models. Geographic information system (GIS) was taken as an analyzing tool, and safety factor calibration was used for back analysis of shear strength parameters (cohesion and friction angle) and the hydraulic parameters (hydraulic conductivity and saturated soil transmissivity). We use regional critical rainfall pattern to compute the critical rainfall threshold for each grid, and define the difference between maximum 24-h rainfall in a typhoon event and critical rainfall threshold as rainfall intensity difference parameter, then take this parameter and rainfall duration as explanatory variables into the Logistic regression to build a landslide susceptibility model and mapping. The result shows the landslide accuracy is 85.76%, and the overall accuracy is 85.98%.
The analyzable range of regional critical rainfall pattern is limited by terrain condition, so warning rainfall estimation model of shallow slope destruction is proposed to analyze the slope surface soil infiltration depth in this study. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used as infiltration parameter, and we use the WINSTABL to analyze the infiltration depth of surface soil which may cause a shallow slide surface and take it as critical depth in order to calculate the warning rainfall for partial slope shallow destruction and determine whether a shallow slide surface was formed.

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