| 研究生: |
朱宗良 Chu, Tsung-Liang |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
臺灣夏季南部地區雷暴之個案模擬探討-以2013年7月9日臺南機場為例 Simulation of summer thunderstorms in southern Taiwan-A July 9,2013 Tainan Airport case |
| 指導教授: |
饒瑞鈞
Rau, Ruey-Juin |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
理學院 - 地球科學系碩士在職專班 Department of Earth Sciences (on the job class) |
| 論文出版年: | 2015 |
| 畢業學年度: | 103 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 82 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | WRF數值模式 、雷暴 、外逸長波輻射 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | WRF numerical model, thunderstorms, Outgoing Long wave Radiation |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:239 下載:7 |
| 分享至: |
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雷暴影響機場期間,與航機起降有密不可分之關係,劇烈天氣現象不僅影響到航班的調度、助導航及氣象設備的損壞,更甚者會對飛安造成嚴重的衝擊。因此,要如何有效且即時地掌握天氣變化之時間、頻度,已是近年來確保飛安的重大議題。本文以臺南機場於2013年7月9日午後出現雷暴天氣,當日累積雨量達66.5mm,均集中於午後6小時內,且最大時雨量高達32.8mm,對當地雖無造成相當災情,不過因雷暴事件,使機場內多項裝備遭受雷殛而損壞,造成該地區多年來未曾出現之情況。
係利用WRF數值模式(the Advanced Research WRF, ARW)及美國國家環境預報中心(NCEP)之1°×1°基本網格分析資料,模擬探討2013年7月9日臺灣鄰近地區綜觀環境特徵及造成臺南機場出現持續性雷暴(雨)劇烈天氣的主要發生機制及演變過程。藉由初步模擬分析結果顯示,當日臺灣中南部山區之大氣環境存在一有利對流之條件,促使對流系統不斷在發展,並逐漸往臺南市區移動;另臺灣地區位於太平洋高壓勢力西南側邊緣,附近無明顯系統控制及影響,為一弱綜觀型態,且地面氣流場偏東之風場,帶來太平洋暖濕空氣,經地形影響繞流至臺灣南部地區,配合午後西南部地區受海陸風效應影響,以及地形抬升作用之下,產生一局部輻合,為造成劇烈降水及雷暴之主因。另外為了要探討臺南機場當日午後對流所造成累積雨量為歷年來之最,分析2000至2014年氣候資料,將每年7月份之高度場、風場及外逸長波輻射平均值統計後,得出臺灣於多雨年時,7月份肇生午後雷陣雨時間亦有延長之趨勢,為造成對流時間持續且累積雨量相較往年增加之另一次因。7月9日個案雖未對臺南機場造成重大災損,但就氣專業角度而言,瞭解其降水成因,除了增加對物理過程的認識外,對於模式模擬而言,也是一項驗證的過程;此外,臺南地區於夏季弱綜觀系統影響下,海陸風效應極為顯著,造成午後熱力作用伴隨地形抬升後,易於山區發展成對流系統,並隨之移出平地,造成局部地區出現較大雨勢,透過數值模擬及氣候統計分析,亦可有效預報引發豪大雨之潛勢。
On July 9, 2013, severe afternoon thunderstorms occurred over the Tainan Airport area and caused heavy rainfall with the maxima daily rainfall of 66.5mm. Most of the rainfall accumulation occurred in a 6-hour period in the afternoon. The hourly maximum accumulated rainfall reached 32.8mm.Although the heavy rainfall caused less severe damage, the lightning associated with thunderstorms still damaged several airport equipment.
The Weather Forecasting and Researching model is used to simulate the mechanisms and the development of this thunderstorm case. Simulation results showed that the atmospheric conditions over the mountain area in central and southern Taiwan were conducive for convection. Meanwhile, Taiwan was influenced by the subsidence of Pacific High adjusting to north east, and was not affected by other weather systems(i.e. a weak-synoptic pattern). Result also showed that surface easterly flows bringing warm and humid air which eventually interacted with the sea-land breeze and elevated terrain. These conditions contributed to the development of severe thunderstorms over Tainan Airport. Finally, using climate data from 2000 to 2014, statistical analysis of geo-potential height, wind field and OLR was conducted. Results revealed that when Taiwan experienced a significant positive yearly rainfall anomaly, the life-cycle of the afternoon thunderstorms during July is generally longer than experiencing negative yearly rainfall anomalous. Although the case of July 9 didn’t caused significant damage to Tainan Airport. However, judging from professional perceptions of meteorology, comprehending the cause of precipitation not only gain knowledge of physical process, but it’s also a verification process of WRF simulation. In addition, sea and land breezes effect could be extremely apparent when Tainan area is affected by weak synoptic scale system during summer. Convective system is prone to develop over mountain area when thermal mechanism accompanied by elevated terrain. Then immediately transfer to ground. Causing heavier rainfall in local regions. By using WRF simulation and climate statistics analysis, the potential occurrence of torrential rain can be forecast effectively.
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