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研究生: 鄭雅琪
Zheng, Ya-Qi
論文名稱: 資本流入與實質匯率——以亞洲與拉丁美洲為例
Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate : A Comparative Study of Asia and Latin America
指導教授: 林姿妤
Lin, Tzu-Yu
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 2025
畢業學年度: 113
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 51
中文關鍵詞: 實質匯率資本流入匯率浮動程度
外文關鍵詞: Real Exchange Rate, Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility
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  • 本研究旨在探討資本流入與實質匯率的作用關係,並進一步比較亞洲與拉丁美洲兩地區在不同匯率制度背景下的資本流入效果。實證資料涵蓋 1994 至 2023 年亞洲與拉丁美洲共 14 個國家,並區分資本流入為長期性的外國直接投(Foreign Direct Investment,FDI)與短期性、波動幅度大的其他資本流入,同時考量匯率浮動程度如何調節兩種資本流入對實質有效匯率的影響。
    本研究透過固定效果模型進行估計,納入匯率浮動指標,如外匯市場壓力(Exchange Market Pressure,EMP)、政府支出、匯率制度指數(Ilzetzki–Reinhart–Rogoff Exchange Rate Regime Index,IRR Index)、法定匯率制度(De jure Exchange Rate Regime,De jure Regime)等,並搭配穩健性檢驗以提升結果的可信度。在地區比較 中發現,亞洲多採取有管理的浮動匯率與政策干預,有助於穩定資本流入與實質匯率 波動;而拉丁美洲因匯率制度較自由,資本流入對匯率影響較直接、變動幅度也較大。 實證結果顯示,不同資本類型對實質有效匯率影響方向不一,FDI 多呈現貶值影響; 相較之下,其他短期資本流入多呈現升值效果。匯率浮動程度則普遍具緩衝作用,能 有效抑制資本流入造成的升貶值影響,特別是在浮動程度較高的國家中更為明顯。

    This study explores the impact of capital inflows on the real exchange rate (RER), comparing Asia and Latin America under different exchange rate regimes from 1994 to 2023. Capital inflows are categorized into long-term foreign direct investment (FDI) and short-term, volatile flows. A fixed effects model is employed, incorporating exchange rate flexibility indicators such as the Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index, government spending, the IRR index, and de jure regime classification.
    The regional comparison reveals that Asian countries often adopt managed floating exchange rate regimes with policy interventions, helping stabilize capital inflows and real exchange rate fluctuations. In contrast, Latin American countries with more liberal regimes experience more direct and volatile exchange rate impacts from capital inflows. Empirical results show that FDI tends to cause depreciation, while short-term capital inflows often lead to appreciation. Greater exchange rate flexibility generally serves as a buffer, especially in countries with higher flexibility.

    摘要 I 致謝 VI 目錄 VII 表目錄 VIII 圖目錄 IX 第一章 緒論 1 第二章 文獻回顧 5 2.1 實質匯率的重要性 5 2.2 資本流入與實質匯率 6 2.3 匯率浮動程度與實質有效匯率 7 第三章 數據資料 10 3.1 數據與變數處理說明 10 3.2 亞洲與拉丁美洲的資本流入 11 3.2.1 亞洲與拉丁美洲資本帳管理制度的歷史回顧 14 3.3 資本流入與實質有效匯率 16 第四章 模型設計 22 第五章 實證結果 24 5.1 資本流入對實質有效匯率的影響:總樣本 24 5.2 資本流入對實質有效匯率的影響:亞洲 25 5.3 資本流入對實質有效匯率的影響:拉丁美洲 27 5.4 GDP 平減指數計算之實質匯率 33 第七章 結論 37 參考文獻 39

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