阿茲海默氏症是最常見導致老年癡呆的病因，目前在其診斷流程中有許多種的診斷方式可適用，如MMSE 認知功能檢測、生物標誌及各種神經影像等。然而，臨床醫師卻常須面對所有檢測結果不一致的景象。目前此狀況多仰賴臨床醫師過去的經驗和判斷，然此過於局限與主觀。因此本論文提供以組合多組預測的方式來改善阿茲海默氏症的診斷正確率。藉由調整組合預測結果之參數，以期得到更可信賴之診斷評估。

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia in the elderly, and now there are many examinations in the diagnostic work-up, such as Mini-Mental Status Examination, biomarker measurements and
neuroimaging etc. However, sometimes clinicians should face the situation that not all the examination results are consistent. Now it is always based on the clinicians’ past experience and judgment in clinical, but it’s limited and subjective. Therefore the thesis utilizes the principle of a combination of a set of forecasts for decision-making purposes to improve the misdiagnosis
assessment rate of AD. By adjusting the parameters of the combination of forecasts, the more convinced assessment could be gained.

Alexander, A. L., J. E. Lee, M. Lazar and A. S. Field "Diffusion tensor imaging of the brain." Neurotherapeutics 4(3): 316-29, 2007.
Antonelli Incalzi, R., M. Cesari, C. Pedone, L. Carosella and P. U. Carbonin "Construct Validity of the Abbreviated Mental Test in Older Medical Inpatients." Dementia and Geriatric Cognitive Disorders 15(4): 199-206, 2003.
Beaulieu, C. "The basis of anisotropic water diffusion in the nervous system - a technical review." NMR Biomed 15(7-8): 435-55, 2002.
Bertram, L. and R. E. Tanzi "Thirty years of Alzheimer's disease genetics: the implications of systematic meta-analyses." Nat Rev Neurosci 9(10): 768-778, 2008.
Blennow, K., M. J. de Leon and H. Zetterberg "Alzheimer's disease." Lancet 368(9533): 387-403, 2006.
Bosch, B., E. M. Arenaza-Urquijo, L. Rami, R. Sala-Llonch, C. Junqué, C. Solé-Padullés, C. Peña-Gómez, N. Bargalló, J. L. Molinuevo and D. Bartrés-Faz "Multiple DTI index analysis in normal aging, amnestic MCI and AD. Relationship with neuropsychological performance." Neurobiology of Aging, In Press.
Bu, G. "Apolipoprotein E and its receptors in Alzheimer's disease: pathways, pathogenesis and therapy." Nat Rev Neurosci 10(5): 333-344, 2009.
Bunn, D. W. "Two Methodologies for the Linear Combination of Forecasts." The Journal of the Operational Research Society 32: 213-222, 1981.
Cummings JL, M. M., Gray K, Rosenberg-Thompson S, Carusi DA, Gornbein J. "The Neuropsychiatric Inventory: comprehensive assessment of psychopathology in dementia." Neurology 44: 2308-2314, 1994.
Douglas C. Montgomery, L. A. J., John S. Gardiner. Forecasting and time series analysis McGraw-Hill, New York, 1990.
Eddy, D. M. "Successes and challenges of medical decision making." Health Aff 5(2): 108-115, 1986.
Eddy, D. M. "Evidence-Based Medicine: A Unified Approach." Health Aff 24(1): 9-17, 2005.
Galvin, J. E., C. M. Roe, K. K. Powlishta, M. A. Coats, S. J. Muich, E. Grant, J. P. Miller, M. Storandt and J. C. Morris "The AD8: A brief informant interview to detect dementia." Neurology 65(4): 559-564, 2005.
Gold, B. T., Y. Jiang, G. A. Jicha and C. D. Smith "Functional response in ventral temporal cortex differentiates mild cognitive impairment from normal aging." Human Brain Mapping 9999(9999): NA, 2009.
Gotz, J. and L. M. Ittner "Animal models of Alzheimer's disease and frontotemporal dementia." Nat Rev Neurosci 9(7): 532-544, 2008.
Hampel, H., K. Burger, S. J. Teipel, A. L. Bokde, H. Zetterberg and K. Blennow "Core candidate neurochemical and imaging biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease." Alzheimers Dement 4(1): 38-48, 2008.
Hampel, H., A. Mitchell, K. Blennow, R. A. Frank, S. Brettschneider, L. Weller and H. J. Möller "Core biological marker candidates of Alzheimer’s disease – perspectives for diagnosis, prediction of outcome and reflection of biological activity." Journal of Neural Transmission 111(3): 247-272, 2004.
Hampel, H., A. Mitchell, K. Blennow, R. A. Frank, S. Brettschneider, L. Weller and H. J. Moller "Core biological marker candidates of Alzheimer's disease - perspectives for diagnosis, prediction of outcome and reflection of biological activity." J Neural Transm 111(3): 247-72, 2004.
Hardy, J. and D. J. Selkoe "The Amyloid Hypothesis of Alzheimer's Disease: Progress and Problems on the Road to Therapeutics." Science 297(5580): 353-356, 2002.
Hatfield, C. F., R. B. Dudas and T. Dening "Diagnostic tools for dementia." Maturitas 63(3): 181-185, 2009.
Jalbert, J. J., L. A. Daiello and K. L. Lapane "Dementia of the Alzheimer type." Epidemiol Rev 30: 15-34, 2008.
Jicha, G. A., J. E. Parisi, D. W. Dickson, F. Boeve, D. S. Knopman and R. C. Petersen "Alzheimer and Lewy body pathology in a centenarian case series." Neurology 64(6): A275-A275, 2005.
Kim, J., J. M. Basak and D. M. Holtzman "The Role of Apolipoprotein E in Alzheimer's Disease." 63(3): 287-303, 2009.
Kording, K. "Decision Theory: What "Should" the Nervous System Do?" Science 318(5850): 606-610, 2007.
McKhann, G., D. Drachman, M. Folstein, R. Katzman, D. Price and E. M. Stadlan "Clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease: Report of the NINCDS-ADRDA Work Group* under the auspices of Department of Health and Human Services Task Force on Alzheimer's Disease." Neurology 34(7): 939-943, 1984.
Milne, A., A. Culverwell, R. Guss, J. Tuppen and R. Whelton "Screening for dementia in primary care: a review of the use, efficacy and quality of measures." International Psychogeriatrics 20(05): 911-926, 2008.
Mioshi, E., K. Dawson, J. Mitchell, R. Arnold and J. R. Hodges "The Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination Revised (ACE-R): a brief cognitive test battery for dementia screening." International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry 21(11): 1078-1085, 2006.
Newbold, P. and C. W. J. Granger "Experience with Forecasting Univariate Time Series and the Combination of Forecasts." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General) 137(2): 131-165, 1974.
Ng, S., V. L. Villemagne, S. Berlangieri, S.-T. Lee, M. Cherk, S. J. Gong, U. Ackermann, T. Saunder, H. Tochon-Danguy, G. Jones, C. Smith, G. O'Keefe, C. L. Masters and C. C. Rowe "Visual Assessment Versus Quantitative Assessment of 11C-PIB PET and 18F-FDG PET for Detection of Alzheimer's Disease." J Nucl Med 48(4): 547-552, 2007.
Petersen, R. C., G. E. Smith, S. C. Waring, R. J. Ivnik, E. G. Tangalos and E. Kokmen "Mild Cognitive Impairment: Clinical Characterization and Outcome." Arch Neurol 56(3): 303-308, 1999.
Polvikoski, T., R. Sulkava, S. Rastas, A. Sutela, L. Niinistö, I. L. Notkola, A. Verkkoniemi, P. Viramo, K. Juva and M. Haltia "Incidence of Dementia in Very Elderly Individuals: A Clinical, Neuropathological and Molecular Genetic Study." Neuroepidemiology 26(2): 76-82, 2006.
Price, J. L. "Aging, Preclinical Alzheimer Disease, and Early Detection." Alzheimer Disease & Associated Disorders April/June 17(2): S60-S62, 2003.
Price, J. L. "Aging, Preclinical Alzheimer Disease, and Early Detection." Alzheimer Disease & Associated Disorders 17: S60-S62, 2003.
Price, J. L., A. I. Ko, M. J. Wade, S. K. Tsou, D. W. McKeel and J. C. Morris "Neuron Number in the Entorhinal Cortex and CA1 in Preclinical Alzheimer Disease." Arch Neurol 58(9): 1395-1402, 2001.
Shulman, K. I. "Clock-drawing: is it the ideal cognitive screening test?" International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry 15(6): 548-561, 2000.
Solomon, P. R. and C. A. Murphy "Should we screen for Alzheimer's disease? A review of the evidence for and against screening for Alzheimer's disease in primary care practice." Geriatrics 60(11): 26-31, 2005.
Stebbins, G. T. and C. M. Murphy "Diffusion tensor imaging in Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment." Behavioural Neurology 21(1): 39-49, 2009.
Stoub, T. R., M. Bulgakova, S. Leurgans, D. A. Bennett, D. Fleischman, D. A. Turner and L. deToledo-Morrell "MRI predictors of risk of incident Alzheimer disease: A longitudinal study." Neurology 64(9): 1520-1524, 2005.
Sundgren, P. C., Q. Dong, D. Gomez-Hassan, S. K. Mukherji, P. Maly and R. Welsh "Diffusion tensor imaging of the brain: review of clinical applications." Neuroradiology 46(5): 339-50, 2004.
Swerdlow, R. H. "Is aging part of Alzheimer's disease, or is Alzheimer's disease part of aging?" Neurobiology of Aging 28(10): 1465-1480, 2007.
Teipel, S. J., T. Meindl, L. Grinberg, H. Heinsen and H. Hampel "Novel MRI techniques in the assessment of dementia." Eur J Nucl Med Mol Imaging 35 Suppl 1: S58-69, 2008.
Tombaugh TN, M. N. "The Mini-Mental State Examination: a comprehensive review." Journal of the American Geriatrics Society 40: 922-935, 1992.
Verhey, F. R. "Alois Alzheimer (1864-1915)." J Neurol 256(3): 502-3, 2009.
West, M. J., P. D. Coleman, D. G. Flood and J. C. Troncoso "Differences in the pattern of hippocampal neuronal loss in normal ageing and Alzheimer's disease." The Lancet 344(8925): 769-772, 1994.
West, M. J., C. H. Kawas, W. F. Stewart, G. L. Rudow and J. C. Troncoso "Hippocampal neurons in pre-clinical Alzheimer's disease." Neurobiology of Aging 25(9): 1205-1212, 2004.
Wood, B. P. "Decision Making in Radiology." Radiology 211(3): 601-603, 1999.
Zetterberg, H., K. Blennow and E. Hanse "Amyloid beta and APP as biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease." Exp Gerontol 45(1): 23-9, 2010.