簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 趙尉舜
Jhao, Wei-Shun
論文名稱: 貨幣政策對內部人交易之影響
The Impact of Monetary Policy on Insider Trading
指導教授: 張紹基
Chang, Shao-Chi
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 國際企業研究所
Institute of International Business
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 77
中文關鍵詞: 公司內部人內部人交易利率貨幣政策異常報酬
外文關鍵詞: Insider Trading, Federal Funds Rate, Monetary Policy, Abnormal Return
相關次數: 點閱:39下載:7
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 本研究分析了台灣股票市場上公司內部人交易的活動是否會受到利率政策變化的影響而改變,以及當美國聯準會改變基本利率政策的方向時,公司的內部人是否有能力辨別貨幣政策改變的影響並依此交易自己公司的股票。儘管公司內部人是最具有資訊優勢的股票市場參與者之一,但過去研究公司內部人的文獻中並沒有針對貨幣政策對於公司內部人交易活動的影響進行過相關的討論。本研究發現聯邦基金利率的變化與基於賣賣交易比例以及交易量衡量整體市場內部人交易活動的二項變數存在統計上顯著的負相關,但基於交易金額衡量內部人交易活動的變數並未能捕捉到這種相關性。儘管利率變化對公司內部人交易活動有強烈影響,但在我們針對內部人交易的公司與該公司未來股價報酬進行橫截面迴歸分析的結果則表明,在基本利率變化方向改變期間所出現的異常公司內部人交易並不能預測該公司未來的股價報酬。我們基於台灣市場的結果擴展了公司內部人交易研究的面向,並為未來進行內部人交易相關之研究提供了新的基礎。

    In this research, we investigate whether transactions of insiders are influenced by changes of interest rates and whether insiders can accurately identify mispricing in their company stocks when the Fed changes the stance of monetary policy. Despite corporate insiders are one of the most informed market participants, no previous paper has explored the relationship between insider trading and changes in monetary policy. The empirical results presented in our study support the hypothesis that changes of interest rates will have profound impacts on the insider trading. We find changes in Federal funds rate show a statistically significant negative correlation with trade-based and volume-based measures of aggregate insider trading activity while value-based measure do not capture such correlation. Although interest rate changes have strong impact on insider trading activity, the cross-sectional regression results in our study suggest that abnormal insider trades during the directional change of interest rate do not predict future stock returns. Our findings based on Taiwan market extend the existing insider trading literature and provide premises for future research.

    ABSTRACT I 中文摘要 II TABLE OF CENTENTS III LIST OF TABLES V I.INTRODUCTION 1 II.LITERATURE REVIEW 7 2.1Monetary Policy 7 2.1.1The Impacts of Monetary Policy on Real Economy and Financial Markets 7 2.1.2Risk Premium Channel of Monetary Policy 9 2.1.3Behavioral Studies of Investors Across Different Interest Rate Environments 10 2.2Insider Trading Activity 12 2.2.1Aggregate Insider Trading and Market Returns 12 2.2.2Abnormal Returns of Insiders’ Transaction 16 2.2.3Information Content of Insider Trades 16 2.3Spillovers of US Monetary Policy & Global Financial Cycle 19 2.4Hypothesis Development 21 III.SAMPLE AND METHODOLOGY 28 3.1Sample 28 3.1.1Insider Trading and Federal Funds Rate 28 3.1.2Mispricing during Changes of Monetary Policy Stance 29 3.2Variables 31 3.2.1Insider Trading and Federal Funds Rate 31 3.2.2Mispricing during Changes of Monetary Policy Stance 35 IV.EMPIRICAL RESULTS 40 4.1Monthly Aggregate Insider Trading Activity 40 4.2Time Series Regression of Aggregate Insider Transactions 41 4.3.1Descriptive Statistics of 270 Insider Traded Firms in August 2019 47 4.3.2Correlation Test of Variables for Insider Traded Firms in August 2019 49 4.3.3Cross-Sectional Regression Results of 270 Firms in August 2019 50 4.4.1Descriptive Statistics of Insider Traded Firms in March and April 2022 53 4.4.2Correlation Test of Variables 54 4.4.3Cross-Sectional Regression Results of all 388 Insider Traded Firms 55 V.CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION 60 5.1Conclusion 60 5.1.1Insider Trading and Federal Funds Rate 60 5.1.2Mispricing during Changes of Monetary Policy Stance 61 5.2Limitations and Future Study 63 REFERENCES 65

    Aboody and Lev (2000). Information Asymmetry, R&D, and Insider Gains. Journal of Finance, 55(6), 2747-2766. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00305
    Adebambo, Brockman, and Yan (2015). Anticipating the 2007–2008 financial crisis: Who knew what and when did they know it? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, 50(4), 647-669. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109015000381
    Akbas, Jiang, and Koch (2020). Insider Investment Horizon. Journal of Finance, 75(3), 1579-1627. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12878
    Albagli, Ceballos, Claro, and Romero (2019). Channels of US monetary policy spillovers to international bond markets. Journal of Financial Economics,134(2), 447-473. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.04.007
    Andonov, Bauer, and Cremers (2017). Pension Fund Asset Allocation and Liability Discount Rates. The Review of Financial Studies, 30(8), 2555–2595. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx020
    Bekaert, Hoerova, and Duca (2013). Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(7), 771-788. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.06.003
    Beneish and Vargus (2002). Insider Trading, Earnings Quality, and Accrual Mispricing. The Accounting Review, 77(4), 755-791. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2002.77.4.755
    Beneish, Press, and Vargus (2012). Insider Trading and Earnings Management in Distressed Firms. Contemporary Accounting Research, 29 (1), 191-220. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1911-3846.2011.01084.x
    Bernanke and Kuttner (2005). What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy? Journal of Finance, 66(3), 1221-1257. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00760.x
    Bianchi, Lettau, and Ludvigson (2022). Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation. Journal of Finance, 77(2), 967-1017. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13107
    Bluedorn and Bowdler (2011). The Open Economy Consequences of U.S. Monetary Policy. Journal of International Money and Finance 30(2), 309–336. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.11.001
    Canova (2005). The Transmission of US Shocks to Latin America. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20(2), 229–251. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.837
    Chowdhury (1993). Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 75(4), 700-706. https://doi.org/10.2307/2110025
    Cohen, Malloy, and Pomorski (2012). Decoding Inside Information. Journal of Finance, 67(3), 1009-1043. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01740.x
    Craine and Martin (2008). International Monetary Policy Surprise Spillovers. Journal of International Economics 75(1), 180–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.06.005
    Daniel, Garlappi, and Xiao (2021). Monetary Policy and Reaching for Income. Journal of Finance, 76(3), 1145-1193. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13004
    di Giovanni and Shambaugh (2008). The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime. Journal of International Economics 74(2), 341-361. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.09.002
    Di Maggio and Kacperczyk (2017). The unintended consequences of the zero lower bound policy. Journal of Financial Economics, 123(1), 59-80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.09.006
    Drechsler, Savov, and Schnabl (2018). A Model of Monetary Policy and Risk Premia. Journal of Finance, 73(1), 317-373. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12539
    Eckbo and Smith (1998). The Conditional Performance of Insider Trades. Journal of Finance, 53(2), 467-498. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.205263
    Fama (1990). Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity. Journal of Finance, 45(4), 1089-1108. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb02428.x
    Fama and French (1989). Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 25(1), 23-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(89)90095-0
    Fidrmuc, Goergen, and Renneboog (2006). Insider Trading, News Releases, and Ownership Concentration. Journal of Finance, 61(6), 2931-2973. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.01008.x
    Finnerty (1976). Insiders and Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 31(4), 1141-1148. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1976.tb01965.x
    Fratzscher, Duca, and Straub (2018). On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing. The Economic Journal, 128(608), 330-377. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12435
    Georgiadis (2016). Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 67, 41-61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.06.010
    Givoly and Palmon (1985). Insider Trading and the Exploitation of Inside Information: Some Empirical Evidence. The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, 58(1), 69-87.
    Guercio, Diane, Odders-White, and Ready (2017). The Deterrence Effect of SEC Enforcement Intensity on Illegal Insider Trading: Evidence from Run-up before News Events. Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, 60(2), 269-307. https://doi.org/10.1086/693563.
    Habib and Venditti (2018). The global financial cycle: implications for the global economy and the euro area. Economic Bulletin Articles, 6, European Central Bank
    Hanson and Stein (2015). Monetary policy and long-term real rates. Journal of Financial Economics, 115(3), 429-448. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2014.11.001
    Hausman and Wongswan (2011). Global Asset Prices and FOMC Announcements. Journal of International Money and Finance, 30(3), 547–571. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.01.008
    Hong and Li (2019). The Information Content of Sudden Insider Silence. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 54(4), 1499-1538. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26756863
    Jaffe (1974). Special Information and Insider Trading. Journal of Business, 47(3), 410–428. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2352458
    Jeng, Metrick, and Zeckhauser (1999). The Profits to Insider Trading: a Performance-Evaluation Perspective. NBER Working Paper No. w6913. https://ssrn.com/abstract=226391
    Jeng, Metrick, and Zeckhauser (2003). Estimating the Returns to Insider Trading: A Performance-Evaluation Perspective. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(2), 453-471. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3211592
    Jensen and Johnson (1995). Discount rate changes and security returns in the U.S., 1962–1991. Journal of Banking & Finance, 19(1), 79-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(94)00048-8
    Jensen, Mercer, and Johnson (1996). Business conditions, monetary policy, and expected security returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 40(2), 213-237. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(96)89537-7
    Jenter (2005). Market Timing and Managerial Portfolio Decisions. Journal of Finance, 60(4), 1903-1949. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00783.x
    Jiang and Zaman (2010). Aggregate insider trading: Contrarian beliefs or superior information? Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(6), 1225-1236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.11.016
    John & Lang (1991). Insider Trading around Dividend Announcements: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Finance, 46(4), 1361-1389. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb04621.x
    Kahle (2000). Insider trading and the long-run performance of new security issues. Journal of Corporate Finance, 6(1), 25-33. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0929-1199(99)00015-2
    Karpoff & Lee (1991). Insider Trading before New Issue Announcements. Financial Management, 20(1), 18-26. https://doi.org/10.2307/3666093
    Kim (2001). International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from VAR’s. Journal of Monetary Economics 48 (2), 339–372. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(01)00080-0
    Lakonishok and Lee (2001). Are Insider Trades Informative? The Review of Financial Studies, 14(1), 79-111. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2696757
    Lee, Mikkelson, & Partch (1992). Managers' Trading Around Stock Repurchases. Journal of Finance, 47(5), 1947-1961. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04690.x
    Lian, Ma, and Wang (2018). Low Interest Rates and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions. The Review of Financial Studies, 32(6), 2107–2148. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy111
    Lin and Howe (1990). Insider Trading in the OTC Market. Journal of Finance, 45(4), 1273-1284. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb02436.x
    Lorie & Niederhoffer (1968). Predictive and Statistical Properties of Insider Trading. The Journal of Law and Economics, 11(1), 35-53. https://doi.org/10.1086/466642
    Mackowiak (2007). External Shocks, US Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Markets. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(8), 2512–2520. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2007.06.021
    Maddaloni and Peydró (2011). Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro-area and the U.S. Lending Standards. The Review of Financial Studies, 24(6), 2121-2165. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhr015
    Martin and Olivier (2008). The Dog That Did Not Bark: Insider Trading and Crashes. Journal of Finance, 63(5), 2429-2476. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008.01401.x
    Miranda-Agrippino and Rey (2020). U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle. The Review of Economic Studies, 87(6), 2754–2776. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa019
    Neely (2010). The Large Scale Asset Purchases Had Large International Effects. Working Papers 2010-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    Nobili and Neri (2006). The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks from the US to the Euro Area. Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 606, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    Patelis (1997). Stock Return Predictability and The Role of Monetary Policy. Journal of Finance, 52(5), 1951-1972. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb02747.x
    Pearce and Roley (1985). Stock Prices and Economic News. The Journal of Business, 58(1), 49-67. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2352909
    Penman (1982). Insider Trading and the Dissemination of Firms' Forecast Information. The Journal of Business, 55(4), 479-503. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2352989
    Piotroski and Roulstone (2005). Do insider trades reflect both contrarian beliefs and superior knowledge about future cash flow realizations? Journal of Accounting and Economics, 39(1), 55-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2004.01.003
    Rey, H. (2015). Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence. NBER Working Papers 21162.
    Rozeff and Zaman (1988). Overreaction and Insider Trading: Evidence from Growth and Value Portfolios. Journal of Finance, 53(2), 701-716. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.275500
    Rozeff (1974). Money and stock prices: Market efficiency and the lag in effect of monetary policy. Journal of Financial Economics, 1(3), 245-302. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(74)90020-8
    Scott and Xu (2004). Some Insider Sales Are Positive Signals. Financial Analysts Journal, 60(3), 44-51. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4480571
    Seyhun (1986). Insiders' profits, costs of trading, and market efficiency. Journal of Financial Economics, 16(2), 189-212. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(86)90060-7
    Seyhun (1988). The January Effect and Aggregate Insider Trading. Journal of Finance, 43(1), 129-141. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb02593.x
    Seyhun (1990). Overreaction or Fundamentals: Some Lessons from Insiders' Response to the Market Crash of 1987. Journal of Finance, 45(5), 1363-1388. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb03719.x
    Seyhun (1992). The Effectiveness of the Insider-Trading Sanctions. The Journal of Law & Economics, 35(1), 149-182. https://www.jstor.org/stable/725558
    Seyhun and Bradley (1997). Corporate Bankruptcy and Insider Trading. The Journal of Business, 70(2), 189-216. https://doi.org/10.1086/209715
    Smirlock and Yawitz (1985). Asset Returns, Discount Rate Changes, and Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 40(4), 1141-1158. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb02368.x
    Thorbecke (1997). On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy. Journal of Finance, 52(2), 635-654. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb04816.x
    Wang and Hu (2019). The Motivations and Stock-Performance Predicting Power of Insider Trading for Taiwanese Firms. Review of Securities and Futures Markets, 31(4), 91-160. https://doi.org/10.6529/RSFM.201912_31(4).0003
    Wang, Lin, and Wang (2010). Macroeconomic News and Information Transmission of Bond Markets between U.S. and Taiwan. Journal of Management & Systems, 17(4), 611-636.
    Wongswan (2009). The response of global equity indexes to U.S. monetary policy announcements. Journal of International Money and Finance, 28(2), 344-365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2008.03.003

    下載圖示 校內:立即公開
    校外:立即公開
    QR CODE