企業的財務報表通常是投資人作為檢測一家財務困難公司營運表現的判斷依據，但近年來財務危機頻傳的狀況下，財務困難公司常在危機發生前對其財務報表進行窗飾並美化盈餘，企圖掩飾經營不善之事實。掩飾的手法不僅出現在財務報表上，也發生在公司公佈的財務預測上。本研究以裁決性項目作為分析財困公司管理者是否有盈餘操縱的行為，並試圖藉由裁決性項目在危機爆發前一段時間的波動來了解管理者的實際操縱情形。本研究在裁決性項目總額的計算上採用了兩種不同的方法:(一)現金流量模型 (二)修正後Jones模型來針對所選取的103家財務危機公司和相配對的正常營運公司進行比較。此外，本研究尚對兩組樣本公司自身發布的財務預測資訊進行比較，以求找出關聯性。

實證結果如下:
1.從現金流量模型和修正後Jones模型裁決性項目變動的
情形下我們可以發現在兩個模型之中，財務困難公司裁
決性項目在初期都位處於相對低點，但隨著下市時間點
的接近，其裁決性項目金額都有明顯異於正常公司之操
作行為產生，顯示當公司經營者在面臨企業風險時大多
數都會採用這種盈餘管理行為。
2.在現金流量模型下當財務困難公司之裁決性項目為正値
時，該財困公司之經營者會較正常公司有更多裁決性項
目的操作；當財困公司的裁決性項目為負値時，財困公
司之經營者與正常公司之盈餘操作無顯著的差異的結
果。而在修正後Jones模型下，不論裁決性項目為正或
為負，財困公司均較正常公司有更多的裁決性項目操
作。
3.財務困難公司和正常營運公司兩組樣本均有顯著高估盈
餘和營收的現象。在盈餘誤差方面，民國89年兩組樣本
無顯著差異，於民國90年財困公司誤差大於正常公司且
呈現顯著。在營收誤差方面，民國89年兩組樣本無顯著
差異，於民國90年正常公司營收誤差顯著大於財務困難
公司。

　Financial statements of a company are usually an appraisal warranty of an investor to understand a business managed situation. In resent years, financial crisis have occurred passim. Most of this kind of companies often window and adjust their earnings in financial statement before the crisis occur and try to disguise the truth of their bad management. The technique of disguised not only appeal in the financial statement, but also in the financial forecast from the corporation. There are some distressed companies often issue wrong forecast information, and these information has mislead many investing decision made by investors. My research adopt discretionary accruals to analyze distressed companies manager whether do earning management or not. My research try to help understand manager how to manipulate discretionary accruals before the financial crisis explode. I adopt two different models to calculate the discretionary accruals :(1) Cash-flow model (2)Modified Jones model. Also my research uses the forecast data from corporation to compare with the actual number, try to realized what’s the difference between normal and distressed companies.
The empirical results show that:
1.The discretionary accruals fluctuation both in
Cash-flow model and Modified Jones model, we
can find that the trend of distressed companies
they are the same. When the day of crisis
explosion get closer , the manager manipulate
to turn worse . And in the year between t and t-
1 , the discretion accruals manipulated by
corporation elapse.
2.The discretionary accruals my research
calculated in Cash-flow model, we can find that
when the year discretionary accruals are
positive , the degree of manager manipulate in
distressed companies is more than the
others ;when the year discretionary accruals
are negative , the degree of manager manipulate
in distressed companies and the others has no
significant difference .In Modified Jones model
empirical result , no matter whether the
discretionary accruals positive or not , the
degree of manager manipulate in distressed
companies is more than the others.
3.The financial forecast in revenue and net
income both in distressed and normal companies
demonstrate that managers often overestimate
their revenue and earnings. In earning forecast
error aspect, two samples have no significant
difference in 2000; in 2001, distressed
companies error has a significant difference
more than normal companies. In revenues
forecast error aspect, two samples have no
significant difference in 2000; in 2001, normal
companies error has a significant difference
more than distressed companies.

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