本研究探討匯率不確定性是否會影響臺灣企業投資，以及此影響是否在出口曝險較高的企業中更為顯著。本文以 2008 年至 2024 年臺灣上市（櫃）非金融企業之季度資料為樣本，將共同的匯率不確定性衡量與企業間事前既定出口占比之橫斷面差異加以連結，進而估計其對後續投資的影響。實證結果顯示，較高的外匯風險與出口曝險較高企業之資本支出下降有關。進一步而言，投資反應並非立即發生，而是呈現延後調整的特徵，其中最明顯的收縮約出現在一季之後。整體而言，研究結果顯示，匯率不確定性會抑制出口曝險較高之臺灣企業的投資，而其中最明確的證據來自資本支出衡量。鑑於臺灣屬小型、開放且出口導向之經濟體，且本文樣本限於上市（櫃）非金融企業，因此本研究結果較適合解讀為特定情境下的實證證據，而非可直接推論至所有情境之普遍彈性估計。

This study examines whether exchange-rate uncertainty affects corporate investment in Taiwan and whether the effect is stronger for firms with greater export exposure. Using a quarterly panel of TWSE/TPEx listed non-financial firms from 2008 to 2024, this study links a common measure of exchange-rate uncertainty to cross-firm differences in predetermined export share and estimates its effect on subsequent investment. The results show that higher foreign exchange risk is associated with lower capital expenditure among more export-exposed firms. The evidence further suggests that the investment response is delayed rather than immediate, with the clearest contraction appearing about one quarter later. Overall, the findings indicate that exchange-rate uncertainty discourages investment among more export-exposed Taiwanese firms, with the clearest evidence coming from the capital-expenditure measure. Given Taiwan’s small, open, and export-oriented setting and the focus on listed non-financial firms, the results should be interpreted as context-specific evidence rather than universal elasticities.

Abel, A. B., & Eberly, J. C. (1999). The effects of irreversibility and uncertainty on capital accumulation. Journal of Monetary Economics, 44(3), 339–377. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(99)00029-X
Allayannis, G., & Ofek, E. (2001). Exchange rate exposure, hedging, and the use of foreign currency derivatives. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(2), 273–296. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(00)00050-4
Almeida, H., & Campello, M. (2007). Financial constraints, asset tangibility, and corporate investment. Review of Financial Studies, 20(5), 1429–1460. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhm019
Amiti, M., Itskhoki, O., & Konings, J. (2014). Importers, exporters, and exchange rate disconnect. American Economic Review, 104(7), 1942–1978. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.7.1942
Baillie, R. T., & Bollerslev, T. (1991). Intra-day and inter-market volatility in foreign exchange rates. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(3), 565–585. https://doi.org/10.2307/2298012
Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and economic growth: Further evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 5(2), 181–189. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(78)90006-8
Banerjee, R. N., Hofmann, B., & Mehrotra, A. (2022). Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel. International Finance, 25(3), 296–312. https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12415
Bank for International Settlements. (n.d.). Effective exchange rates (EER): Overview. BIS Data Portal. Retrieved December 28, 2025, from https://data.bis.org/topics/EER
Bartram, S. M. (2008). What lies beneath: Foreign exchange rate exposure, hedging and cash flows. Journal of Banking & Finance, 32(8), 1508–1521. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.07.013
Bartram, S. M., Brown, G. W., & Minton, B. A. (2010). Resolving the exposure puzzle: The many facets of exchange rate exposure. Journal of Financial Economics, 95(2), 148–173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2009.09.002
Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77(3), 623–685. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA6248
Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(86)90063-1
Bollerslev, T., & Melvin, M. (1994). Bid-ask spreads and volatility in the foreign exchange market: An empirical analysis. Journal of International Economics, 36(3–4), 355–372. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1996(94)90008-6
Bolton, P., Chen, H., & Wang, N. (2011). A unified theory of Tobin’s q, corporate investment, financing, and risk management. The Journal of Finance, 66(5), 1545–1578. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2011.01681.x
Brochet, F., Jagolinzer, A. D., & Riedl, E. J. (2013). Mandatory IFRS adoption and financial statement comparability. Contemporary Accounting Research, 30(4), 1373–1400. https://doi.org/10.1111/1911-3846.12002
Campa, J. M., & Goldberg, L. S. (2005). Exchange rate pass-through into import prices. Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(4), 679–690. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465305775098189
Christensen, H. B., Hail, L., & Leuz, C. (2013). Mandatory IFRS reporting and changes in enforcement. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 56(2–3), 147–177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2013.10.007
Dao, M. C., Minoiu, C., & Ostry, J. D. (2021). Corporate investment and the real exchange rate. Journal of International Economics, 131, 103437. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103437
Daske, H., Hail, L., Leuz, C., & Verdi, R. S. (2008). Mandatory IFRS reporting around the world: Early evidence on the economic consequences. Journal of Accounting Research, 46(5), 1085–1142. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-679X.2008.00306.x
Devereux, M., & Schiantarelli, F. (1990). Investment, financial factors, and cash flow: Evidence from U.K. panel data. In R. G. Hubbard (Ed.), Asymmetric information, corporate finance, and investment (pp. 279–306). University of Chicago Press.
Dixit, A. K., & Pindyck, R. S. (1994). Investment under uncertainty. Princeton University Press.
Dominguez, K. M. E., & Tesar, L. L. (2006). Exchange rate exposure. Journal of International Economics, 68(1), 188–218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2005.01.002
Du, Q., Hong, S., Wang, Y., & Wang, Y. (2026). Exchange rate, foreign currency debt and firm-level investment. Journal of International Money and Finance, 161, 103475. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103475
Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912773
Fang, W.-S., Lai, Y.-H., & Miller, S. M. (2009). Does exchange rate risk affect exports asymmetrically? Asian evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 28(2), 215–239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2008.11.002
Financial Supervisory Commission. (2013, January 7). Formal adoption of the IFRSs from 1 January 2013 by companies listed on the TWSE, GTSM, and Emerging Stock Market and financial services companies regulated by the FSC. https://www.feb.gov.tw/en/home.jsp?dataserno=201301070002&dtable=News&id=46&mcustomize=multimessage_view.jsp&parentpath=0
Giles, J. A., & Williams, C. L. (2000a). Export-led growth: A survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 9(3), 261–337. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638190050086177
Giles, J. A., & Williams, C. L. (2000b). Export-led growth: A survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 9(4), 445–470. https://doi.org/10.1080/096381900750056867
Gopinath, G., Itskhoki, O., & Rigobon, R. (2010). Currency choice and exchange rate pass-through. American Economic Review, 100(1), 304–336. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.1.304
Gulen, H., & Ion, M. (2016). Policy uncertainty and corporate investment. The Review of Financial Studies, 29(3), 523–564. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhv050
He, J., & Ng, L. K. (1998). The foreign exchange exposure of Japanese multinational corporations. The Journal of Finance, 53(2), 733–753. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.295575
He, Y., Chen, J., Fan, S., & Zhang, X. (2025). Foreign market uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China. Economic Modelling, 152, 107222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107222
Huang, W., & Zhang, W. (2024). Exchange rate and corporate investment: Heterogeneous effects via the global value chain networks. Journal of International Money and Finance, 147, 103159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103159
Jorion, P. (1990). The exchange-rate exposure of U.S. multinationals. Journal of Business, 63(3), 331–345. https://doi.org/10.1086/296510
Kim, H., & Kung, H. (2017). The asset redeployability channel: How uncertainty affects corporate investment. The Review of Financial Studies, 30(1), 245–280. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhv076
Ko, D., & Cho, W. (2024). Foreign exchange risk management and corporate investment in South Korea. Global Economic Review, 53(4), 304–326. https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2024.2449151
Kraft, A. G., Vashishtha, R., & Venkatachalam, M. (2018). Frequent financial reporting and managerial myopia. The Accounting Review, 93(2), 249–275. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-51838
Neel, M. (2017). Accounting comparability and economic outcomes of mandatory IFRS adoption. Contemporary Accounting Research, 34(1), 658–690. https://doi.org/10.1111/1911-3846.12229
Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347–370. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938260
Servén, L. (2003). Real-exchange-rate uncertainty and private investment in LDCs. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(1), 212–218. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.2003.85.1.212
Taylor, M. P., Wang, Z., & Xu, Q. (2021). The real effects of exchange rate risk on corporate investment: International evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 117, 102432. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102432
Xie, F. (2009). Managerial flexibility, uncertainty, and corporate investment. International Review of Economics & Finance, 18(4), 643–655. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2008.11.001