過去研究多顯示空氣污染對於人類身心健康造成嚴重影響。空氣汙染會刺激上呼吸道造成咳嗽、氣喘等身體不適，使人們傾向留在家裡、避免戶外活動。在心理健康方面，空氣汙染導致氧化壓力(oxidative stress)和全身與腦部發炎，引發情緒或心理健康問題(如抑鬱和焦慮、暴躁)，部分學者認為這些精神疾病與高犯罪率有關聯。根據過去文獻，本研究假設空氣污染會減少戶外犯罪風險，因為空氣汙染會減少人們出門的意願。此外，由於空氣汙染導致的心理健康問題，也可能增加室內犯罪的機率。根據以上假設，本研究選擇分析兩種類型的犯罪，包括搶劫（室外犯罪）和家庭暴力（室內犯罪），並擬合四種不同的迴歸模型，分別納入相關因子隨時間動態變化，及犯罪空間依賴性對於預測模型影響，以估計空氣污染與犯罪率之關係。本研究使用模型包含:簡單線性迴歸、地理加權迴歸（GWR）、地理時間加權迴歸（GTWR）和空間面板模型。研究區域分別為澳洲新南威爾斯和英國倫敦，並收集了2016年各分區每月犯罪記錄、社會經濟變數和空氣品量指數（AQI）等數據。在模型配適部分，本研究使用赤池信息標準（AIC）來比較模型表現。在兩個研究區域中，GTWR的AIC皆比其他三個模型低，故本研究選擇GTWR為模型解釋成果。總體來說，在GTWR模型中AQI與搶劫之間存在顯著的負相關(即多數分區當地AQI係數均為負值)，並且發現該影響隨著從城市到農村地區漸緩（新南威爾斯從-0.081到-0.028； 倫敦為-2.208至2.552）；反之，AQI與家庭暴力則多呈現顯著正相關，模型中AQI的影響同樣隨著從農村到城市而增加，新南威爾斯的係數從-0.041到0.543，倫敦的係數從-1.050到1.519。根據以上成果，本研究建議對於人口稠密、空氣污染較嚴重的都市地區，地方政府應長期觀察空氣品質如何醒響民眾活動分布，可視需要調撥原本商業娛樂區巡邏人力資源，以支援家庭暴力等室內犯罪案件通報處理與社工訪視，並針對未來空汙嚴重地區加強室內犯罪之預防宣導與管理，本研究成果有助於制定減少空汙相關犯罪的長期執法政策。

Air pollution has been found to have a severe impact on the state of human physical and mental health. When poor air quality causes respiratory irritation, people tend to stay home and avoid outdoor activities. This condition may lead to mental health problems, such as depression and anxiety, due to oxidative stress and systemic inflammation. Some scholars have posited that these mental illnesses are associated with a high crime rate. Based on the above information, we hypothesized that poor air pollution reduces crimes which committed outdoors as people are less likely to go outside and increases indoor crimes due to mental health problems. Two types of crimes were used for analysis, including robbery (outdoor crime), and domestic violence (indoor crime). Four different regression models were utilized and compared to define the relationship between air pollution and crimes by considering dynamic changes over time and the spatial dependence of such crimes. These regressions are ordinary least square regression, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), Geographically-Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR), and spatial panel model. Regions of interest in this study are New South Wales and Greater London in Australia and England, respectively. This study includes monthly crime records, socio-economic variables, and air quality index (AQI) data obtained in 2016. For comparison, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used to indicate the model performance. The results revealed that GTWR was consistently performed better than the other three regressions with lower AICs values in both study areas and both crimes. In general, both study areas also have consistent negative and positive impacts of socioeconomic factors in terms of their coefficients. The effect of the socioeconomic factors showed that the population, unemployment rate, and higher education degree were significantly positively correlated with robbery cases, while the median age, female ratio, income, and AQI were negatively correlated with robbery. However, in terms of domestic violence, it has a significant positive association with divorce rate and three variables (female ratio, education degree, and AQI) have the opposite effect with robberies. The spatial-temporal distance ratio utilized in GTWR shows the value lower than one (0.268 on New South Wales and 0.8149 on Greater London) which means the model was relying more on the spatial than the temporal effect. In details, the GTWR model showed that air pollution had a significantly negative relationship to robbery as the majority of local coefficients of AQI were negative and found to be increased from rural to urban areas (ranging from -0.081 to -0.028 in New South Wales; -2.208 to 2.552 in Greater London). In contrast, AQI had a significantly positive correlation with domestic violence. The model showed that the impacts of AQI increased from rural to urban with the coefficients ranging from -0.041 to 0.543 for New South Wales and -1.050 to 1.519 for Greater London. For recommendations, in urban regions where the population is denser and the air pollution is more severe, the local authorities should allocate more resources for the prevention of indoor crimes such as domestic violence instead of for robbery. Our results can contribute to developing long-term enforcement strategies for reducing crime.

Alarid, Leanne Fiftal, Velmer S.Burton, andAndy L.Hochstetler. 2009. “Group and Solo Robberies: Do Accomplices Shape Criminal Form?” Journal of Criminal Justice 37(1): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2008.12.001.
Anderson, Craig A, and Kathryn B. Anderson. 1998. “Temperature and Aggression: Paradox, Controversy, and A (Fairly) Clear Picture.” : 247–98.
Andresen, Martin A. 2011. “The Ambient Population and Crime Analysis.” Professional Geographer 63(2): 193–212.
Appiahene-Gyamfi, Joseph. 1998. “Violent Crime in Ghana: The Case of Robbery.” Journal of Criminal Justice 26(5): 409–24.
Archer, John. 2002. “Sex Differences in Physically Aggressive Acts between Heterosexual Partners: A Meta-Analytic Review.” Aggression and Violent Behavior 7(4): 313–51.
Baker, Charlene K. et al. 2010. “Domestic Violence, Housing Instability, and Homelessness: A Review of Housing Policies and Program Practices for Meeting the Needs of Survivors.” Aggression and Violent Behavior 15(6): 430–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2010.07.005.
Batalgi, Badi H. 2004. “A Hausman Test Based on the Difference between Fixed Effects Two-Stage Least Squares and Error Components Two-Stage Least Squares.” Econometric Theory 20: 223–29.
Bernasco, Wim, andRichardBlock. 2009. “Where Offenders Choose to Attack: A Discrete Choice Model of Robberies in Chicago.” Criminology 47(1): 93–130.
Beurel, E., and R. S.Jope. 2014. “Inflammation and Lithium: Clues to Mechanisms Contributing to Suicide-Linked Traits.” Translational Psychiatry 4(12): e488-7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/tp.2014.129.
Boivin, Rémi. 2018. “Routine Activity, Population(s) and Crime: Spatial Heterogeneity and Conflicting Propositions about the Neighborhood Crime-Population Link.” Applied Geography 95(April): 79–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.04.016.
Brian Jacob, LarsLefgren, and Enrico Moretti. 2004. “The Dynamics of Criminal Behavior: Evidence From Weather Shocks.” National Bureau of Economic Research 2004: 352. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cbdv.200490137/abstract.
Brooks, Alison Wood, and Maurice E.Schweitzer. 2011. “Can Nervous Nelly Negotiate? How Anxiety Causes Negotiators to Make Low First Offers, Exit Early, and Earn Less Profit.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 115(1): 43–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2011.01.008.
Buonanno, Paolo, andMilanoBicocca. 2003. “DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF MILAN - BICOCCA WORKING PAPER SERIES Identifying the Effect of Education on Crime. Evidence from the Italian Regions Evidence from the Italian Regions ∗.” Economia (65).
Burkhardt, Jesse et al. 2019. “The Effect of Pollution on Crime: Evidence from Data on Particulate Matter and Ozone.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 98: 102267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2019.102267.
Capaldi, Deborah M., Naomi B.Knoble, Joann WuShortt, and Hyoun K.Kim. 2012. “# 4 A Systematic Review of Risk Factors for Intimate Partner Violence.” Partner Abuse 3(2): 1–27.
Card, Noel A., Brian D.Stucky, Gita M.Sawalani, and Todd D.Little. 2008. “Direct and Indirect Aggression during Childhood and Adolescence: A Meta-Analytic Review of Gender Differences, Intercorrelations, and Relations to Maladjustment.” Child Development 79(5): 1185–1229.
Carlsmith, J. Merrill, and Craig A.Anderson. 1979. “Ambient Temperature and the Occurrence of Collective Violence: A New Analysis.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 37(3): 337–44.
Carpenter, Georgia L., and Ann M.Stacks. 2009. “Developmental Effects of Exposure to Intimate Partner Violence in Early Childhood: A Review of the Literature.” Children and Youth Services Review 31(8): 831–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2009.03.005.
Cerro, Ana, and Osvaldo Meloni. 2000. “Determinants of the Crime Rate in Argentina during the 90s.” Estudios de Economía 27(2): 297–311.
Chainey, Spencer. 2013. “Examining the Influence of Cell Size and Bandwidth Size on Kernel Density Estimation Crime Hotspot Maps for Predicting Spatial Patterns of Crime.” BSGLg 60(1): 7–19.
Chen, Renjie et al. 2013. “Both Low and High-Temperature May Increase the Risk of Stroke Mortality.” Neurology 81(12): 1064–70.
Chen, Zhangjian et al. 2019. “The Association between High Ambient Air Pollution Exposure and Respiratory Health of Young Children: A Cross Sectional Study in Jinan, China.” Science of the Total Environment 656: 740–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.368.
Cohen, Aaron J. et al. 2005. “The Global Burden of Disease Due to Outdoor Air Pollution.” Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health - Part A 68(13–14): 1301–7.
Cohn, Ellen G., and James Rotton. 1997. “Assault as a Function of Time and Temperature: A Moderator-Variable Time-Series Analysis.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 72(6): 1322–34.
Cook, Philip J, and Gary A. Zarkin. 1985. “Crime and the Business Cycle.” The Journal of Legal Studies 14(1): 115–28. http://www.jstor.org/stable/724318.
Costa, Beth M. et al. 2015. “Longitudinal Predictors of Domestic Violence Perpetration and Victimization: A Systematic Review.” Aggression and Violent Behavior 24: 261–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2015.06.001.
Cotton, John L. 1986. “Ambient Temperature and Violent Crime.” Journal of Applied Social Psychology 16(9): 786–801.
Czarnecka, M., and J. Nidzgorska-Lencewicz. 2011. “Impact of Weather Conditions on Winter and Summer Air Quality.” International Agrophysics 25(1): 7–12.
Ehrlich, Isaac. 1973. “Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation.” Journal of Political Economy 81(3): 521–65.
Filippini, Tommaso et al. 2015. “A Review and Meta-Analysis of Outdoor Air Pollution and Risk of Childhood Leukemia.” Journal of Environmental Science and Health - Part C Environmental Carcinogenesis and Ecotoxicology Reviews 33(1): 36–66.
Fotheringham, A. S., C Brunsdon, and M..Charlton. 2002. Geographically Weighted Regression: The Analysis of Spatially Varying Relationship.
Grubesic, Tony H., Elizabeth A.Mack, and Maria T. Kaylen. 2012. “Comparative Modeling Approaches for Understanding Urban Violence.” Social Science Research 41(1): 92–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2011.07.004.
Hale, Chris, and DIMA Sabbagh. 1991. “Testing the Relationship between Unemployment and Crime: A Methodological Comment and Empirical Analysis Using Time Series Data from England and Wales.” Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 28(4): 400–417. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427891028004002.
He, Kebin et al. 2001. “The Characteristics of PM2.5 in Beijing, China.” Atmospheric Environment 25: 4959–4970 The.
Herrnstadt, Evan, Anthony Heys, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian. 2016. “Air Pollution as a Cause of Violent Crime.” Mimeo (March). https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/64fe/063deb005e23ce2bde312a5871795398d031.pdf?_ga=2.229358619.641361398.1566233289-176311431.1566233289.
Herrnstadt, Evan, and Erich Muehlegger. 2015. “Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Evidence from Chicago Microdata.” NBER Working Paper Series: 40. http://www.nber.org/papers/w21787.
Hipp, John R., Christopher Bates, Moshe Lichman, and Padhraic Smyth. 2018. “Using Social Media to Measure Temporal Ambient Population: Does It Help Explain Local Crime Rates?” Justice Quarterly 8825: 1–31. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2018.1445276.
Hipp, John R., and Young An Kim. 2019. “Explaining the Temporal and Spatial Dimensions of Robbery: Differences across Measures of the Physical and Social Environment.” Journal of Criminal Justice 60(November 2018): 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2018.10.005.
Hoffman, Kristi L., David H.Demo, and John N.Edwards. 1994. “Physical Wife Abuse in a Non-Western Society: An Integrated Theoretical Approach.” Journal of Marriage and Family 56: 131–46.
Hu, Yujie, FahuiWang, CecileGuin, and Haojie Zhu. 2018. “A Spatio-Temporal Kernel Density Estimation Framework for Predictive Crime Hotspot Mapping and Evaluation.” Applied Geography 99(August): 89–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.08.001.
Huang, Bo, Bo Wu, and Michael Barry. 2010. “Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression for Modeling Spatio-Temporal Variation in House Prices.” International Journal of Geographical Information Science 24(3): 383–401.
Ikram, Maria, Zhijun Yan, Yan Liu, and Weihua Qu. 2015. “Seasonal Effects of Temperature Fluctuations on Air Quality and Respiratory Disease: A Study in Beijing.” Natural Hazards 79(2): 833–53.
Jewkes, Rachel. 2002. “Violence against Women III Intimate Partner Violence : Causes and Prevention.” Lancet 359: 1423–29. http://www.ayamm.org/english/Violence against women 1.pdf.
Kaci, Judy Hails. 1992. “Intimate Violence: The Causes and Consequences of Abuse in the American Family by Richard J. Gelles and Murray A. Straus.” Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice 8(2): 175–76.
Kampa, Marilena, and Elias Castanas. 2008. “Human Health Effects of Air Pollution.” Environmental Pollution 151(2): 362–67.
Khan, Eman D. 2018. “Introduction to Crime Scene.” (1): 1–3. http://simplyforensic.com.
Kiš, Ivana Mesić. 2016. “Comparison of Ordinary and Universal Kriging Interpolation Techniques on a Depth Variable (a Case of Linear Spatial Trend), Case Study of the Šandrovac Field.” Rudarsko Geolosko Naftni Zbornik 31(2): 41–58.
Langville, Amy N., and William J.Stewart. 2004. “The Kronecker Product and Stochastic Automata Networks.” Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 167(2): 429–47.
Lefohn, Allen S, HP Knudsen, and Douglas S. Shadwick. 2005. “Using Ordinary Kriging to Estimate the Seasonal W126, and N100 24-h Concentrations for the Year 2000 and 2003.” ASL & Associates 111: 3. http://webcam.srs.fs.fed.us/impacts/ozone/spatial/2000/contractor_2000_2003.pdf.
Levitt, Steven D., and Thomas J. Miles. 2006. “Economic Contributions to the Understanding of Crime.” Annual Review of Law and Social Science 2(1): 147–64.
Lofstrom, Magnus, andStevenRaphael. 2016. “Crime, the Criminal Justice System, and Socioeconomic Inequality.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 30(2): 103–26.
Lu, Jackson G., Julia J.Lee, FrancescaGino, and Adam D.Galinsky. 2018. “Polluted Morality: Air Pollution Predicts Criminal Activity and Unethical Behavior.” Psychological Science 29(3): 340–55.
Malinosky-Rummell, Robin, and David J.Hansen. 1993. “Long-Term Consequences of Childhood Physical Abuse.” Psychological Bulletin 114(1): 68–79.
Margolin, Gayla, and Elana B.Gordis. 2004. “Children’s Exposure to Violence in the Family and Community.” Current Directions in Psychological Science 13(4): 152–55.
Markham, Francis, BruceDoran, andMartinYoung. 2016. “The Relationship between Electronic Gaming Machine Accessibility and Police-Recorded Domestic Violence: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of 654 Postcodes in Victoria, Australia, 2005–2014.” Social Science and Medicine 162: 106–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2016.06.008.
Martin, Sandra L et al. 2002. “Domestic Violence across Generations: Findings from Northern India.” International Journal of Epidemiology 31(3): 560–72.
Miller, Elizabeth, andBrigidMcCaw. 2019. “Intimate Partner Violence.” New England Journal of Medicine 380(9): 850–57.
Mitchell, Liesl. 2008. “Impact of Domestic Violence.” Primary Health Care 18(4): 6–6.
Moolgavkar, Suresh H, andE GeorgLuebeck. 1996. “A Critical Review of the Evidence on Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality.” Epidemiology 7(4): 420–28. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3702062.
Moretti, Enrico, and Matthew Neidell. 2011. “Pollution, Health, and Avoidance Behavior: Evidence from the Ports of Los Angeles.” Journal of Human Resources 46(1): 154–75.
Nowak, David J., Daniel E.Crane, and Jack C.Stevens. 2006. “Air Pollution Removal by Urban Trees and Shrubs in the United States.” Urban Forestry and Urban Greening 4(3–4): 115–23.
Osterburg, James W., Richard H.Ward, James W.Osterburg, and Richard H.Ward. 2010. “Robbery.” Criminal Investigation: 417–27. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9781422463284500281 (December21, 2019).
Painuly, Nitesh, PratapSharan, and Surendra K.Mattoo. 2005. “Relationship of Anger and Anger Attacks with Depression: A Brief Review.” European Archives of Psychiatry and Clinical Neuroscience 255(4): 215–22.
Park, Hun Myoung. 2011. “Practical Guides To Panel Data Modeling : A Step by Step Analysis Using Strata.” Public Management and Public Analysis Program: 1–53.
Power, Melinda C. et al. 2015. “The Relation between Past Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution and Prevalent Anxiety: Observational Cohort Study.” BMJ (Online) 350.
Ranson, Matthew. 2014. “Crime, Weather, and Climate Change.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 67(3): 274–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2013.11.008.
Rotton, James, and James Frey. 1985. “Air Pollution, Weather, and Violent Crimes. Concomitant Time-Series Analysis of Archival Data.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 49(5): 1207–20.
Shin, Jinyoung, Jin Young Park, and Jaekyung Choi. 2018. “Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollutants and Mental Health Status: A Nationwide Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study.” PLoS ONE 13(4): 1–12.
Soro, Wonmongo Lacina, Yiwei Zhou, and Didier Wayoro. 2017. “Crash Rates Analysis in China Using a Spatial Panel Model.” IATSS Research 41(3): 123–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iatssr.2016.11.001.
Vine, Michelle M., Susan J.Elliott, and Susan Keller-Olaman. 2010. “To Disrupt and Displace: Placing Domestic Violence on the Public Health Agenda.” Critical Public Health 20(3): 339–55.
Wang, Quan, Jian Ni, and John Tenhunen. 2005. “Application of a Geographically-Weighted Regression Analysis to Estimate Net Primary Production of Chinese Forest Ecosystems.” Global Ecology and Biogeography 14(4): 379–93.
Ward, Tony. 2000. “Sexual Offenders’ Cognitive Distortions as Implicit Theories.” Aggression and Violent Behavior 5(5): 491–507.
Whitfield, Charles L., Robert F.Anda, Shanta R.Dube, and Vincent J. Felitti. 2003. “Violent Childhood Experiences and the Risk of Intimate Partner Violence in Adults: Assessment in a Large Health Maintenance Organization.” Journal of Interpersonal Violence 18(2): 166–85.
Winkler, Dietmar, Edda Pjrek, and Siegfried Kasper. 2005. “Anger Attacks in Depression - Evidence for a Male Depressive Syndrome.” Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics 74(5): 303–7.
Wu, Chih Da et al. 2017. “Land-Use Regression with Long-Term Satellite-Based Greenness Index and Culture-Specific Sources to Model PM 2.5 Spatial-Temporal Variability.” Environmental Pollution 224: 148–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2017.01.074.
Wu, Junlin. 2019. “Impact of Chinese Air Pollution on Health and Potential Solutions.” IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 252(4).
Yan, Longxu et al. 2019. “Exploring the Effect of Air Pollution on Social Activity in China Using Geotagged Social Media Check-in Data.” Cities 91: 116–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2018.11.011.
Zeng, Ying et al. 2019. “Ambient Air Pollution Exposure and Risk of Depression: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.” Psychiatry Research 276: 69–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psychres.2019.04.019.