本研究探索的項目為零售業在高密度展店下之營收變化，並利用咖啡零售業歷史營收資料驗證模型。據統計台灣咖啡店數量在2014年已突破2,000家，隨著咖啡店林立、密度持續上升的狀況下，容易對周遭咖啡門市的銷售產生影響，為了分析展店對營收造成的影響，本研究使用SuperGIS軟體搭配實際路網資訊蒐集距離資料，將距離參數代入Fotheringham(1983)提出的目的地競爭模型(Competing Destination Models)，在模型中探討競爭與凝聚參數，並運用統一星巴克的歷史營收資料進行模型驗證，確定模型在營收的模擬上具有合理性以及有良好的適用程度；另外，加入空間統計分析提供檢定分析方法，檢定出門市在空間中分布的情形，藉此尋找能夠增加總營收之展店區位，做為日後企業進行高密度展店策略的參考依據。研究結果顯示，目的地競爭模型在咖啡零售業的適用性高，在不具競爭與凝聚效力下模擬營收與實際日營收差額值小於5%，且得知企業應提升凝聚效力使總體營收上升，在凝聚效力下也較不易圖利特定商家，導致同系統個別門市退出市場。根據空間統計分析的結果，統一星巴克在人口密集度高的區域已達到營收飽和、難以創造高額營收群聚的狀態，反觀在較偏遠的地區，儘管人口密度沒有台北市中心高，卻因為門市數量少能夠瓜分到較多的顧客群，因此在增設門市方面應避免在人口密集的市中心進行設置，選址地點在郊區處為較佳。

This research aims to explore the revenue change of high-density development for retail industry in urban area. We use coffee retail stores as an example to collect data and validate the model. According to statistics, the number of coffee stores in Taiwan has exceeded 2,000 in 2014. With the rising of coffee store density, the two nearby stores will immediately have an influence on their revenue. Hence, to analyze the impact on revenue from expansion, our research uses Competing Destinations Model to calculate the probability that customers choose each Starbucks. In the model, we use historical data of Starbucks to validate the model newly created. Besides, our research also uses spatial statistics to find out the place which can increase total revenue. The result shows that the applicability of Competition Destination Model used in coffee retail industry is high and ends up with reasonable explanation. If Starbucks wants to increase total revenue, it must enhance the agglomeration effect of its branch. According to the results of spatial statistical analysis, the revenue of President Starbucks coffee corporation in densely populated areas have reached saturation. In contrast, in remote areas, there are no high population density as central Taipei, but they can be able to divide up large customer base due to a small number of stores. Hence, in terms of building additional outlets, Starbucks should avoid opening new stores in the densely populated city center but choose the Suburban.

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網路資料　
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