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研究生: 田浚致
Tien, Chun-Chin
論文名稱: 利用空氣擴散模式模擬石化工業區致癌性污染物之濃度及推估居民之致癌風險
Use of dispersion model to estimate the levels of carcinogens and the carcinogenic risk for residents living in petrochemical industrial complexes
指導教授: 蘇慧貞
Su, Huey-Jen
李俊璋
Lee, Ching-Chung
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 醫學院 - 環境醫學研究所
Department of Environmental and Occupational Health
論文出版年: 2005
畢業學年度: 93
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 301
中文關鍵詞: 石化工業揮發性有機物空氣擴散模式致癌風險評估
外文關鍵詞: risk assessment, ISC, VOCs, petrochemical industry
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  •   石化工業為大氣環境中揮發性有機物重要排放源,且揮發性有機物許多具有致癌危害性,國際研究發現,暴露於致癌性揮發性有機物的環境中,發生癌症的機率有較高的趨勢;但亦有研究認為石化區民眾癌症發生率與一般民眾癌症發生率並未有顯著差異。綜觀台灣目前已進行之研究成果多只針對健康影響進行評估,並未對工業區附近居民之實際暴露與相關風險進行全面性評估。
      故本篇研究著重於重建石化工業區以往所排放各種致癌性污染物之貢獻量,並同時配合空氣擴散模式(ISC)推估當地空氣污染物濃度之分佈情形,再經由致癌風險評估之計算試圖釐清石化污染暴露及健康影響之關係性,最後依此提出風險控制建議及風險評估參考。
    初步發現,在污染物濃度分佈方面,民國74年至民國90年之盛行風向為北風,所以林園工業區中污染物之影響範圍均在林園鄉的南方;仁大工業區中污染物之影響範圍均在大社鄉之西南邊及仁武鄉之西邊。
      在個人終身致癌風險的範圍,在林園工業區中丁二烯低暴露區為1×10-5 ~ 8.706×10-7、高暴露區為1.041×10-3 ~ 1×10-5,氯乙烯低暴露區為1×10-6 ~ 4.515×10-8、高暴露區為1.244×10-4 ~ 1×10-6,苯低暴露區為3.886×10-5 ~ 4.324×10-6、高暴露區為4.055×10-4 ~ 3.886×10-5;在仁大工業區中丁二烯低暴露區為1×10-5 ~ 2.205×10-7、高暴露區為3.856×10-4 ~ 1×10-5,甲醛低暴露區為1×10-4 ~ 5.145×10-6、高暴露區為1.543×10-3 ~ 1×10-4,苯低暴露區為1×10-6 ~ 1.757×10-8、高暴露區為2.763×10-5 ~ 1×10-6,氯乙烯低暴露區為510-5 ~ 2.264×10-6、高暴露區為3.719×10-4 ~ 5×10-5,環氧氯丙烷為2.808×10-7。

      Petrochemical industry is an important emission source for atmospheric VOCs, and literatures have reported several health outcomes associated with the corresponding exposures. However, the conclusions have not been exactly consistent due partially to the fact that most studies have not had complete exposure data when the investigation took place. This study is therefore set to reconstruct the exposure scenarios based on the emission data collected for selected carcinogenic VOCs emitted in petrochemical complexes of study zones. Health risk assessment is planned afterwards for more conclusive relationship between chronic exposures to the above-mentioned VOCs and suspected health consequences for neighboring residents.
      Preliminary data show that the prevailing wind in 1985~2001 was north wind. So the incidence of three carcinogen was in south of Lin-Yuan petrochemical complex. The incidence of five carcinogen was in southwest of Ta-Sheh petrochemical complex and . west of Jen-Wu petrochemical complex.
      The personal lifetime cancer risk in Lin-Yuan petrochemical complex is Butadiene(1.041×10-3 ~ 1×10-5 and 1×10-5 ~ 8.706×10-7), Vinyl Chloride(1.244×10-4 ~ 1×10-6 and 1×10-6 ~ 4.515×10-8), Benzene(4.055×10-4 ~ 3.886×10-5 and 3.886×10-5 ~ 4.324×10-6), Jen-Wu and Ta-Shen petrochemical complexes is Butadiene(3.856×10-4 ~ 1×10-5 and 1×10-5 ~ 2.205×10-7), Formaldehyde(1.543×10-3 ~ 1×10-4 and 1×10-4 ~ 5.145×10-6), Benzene(2.763×10-5 ~ 1×10-6 and 1×10-6 ~ 1.757×10-8), Vinyl Chloride(3.719×10-4 ~ 5×10-5 and 5×10-5 ~ 2.264×10-6), Epichlorohydrin(2.808×10-7)

    摘要....................................................I Abstract...............................................II 誌謝..................................................III 目錄...................................................IV 圖目錄.................................................VI 表目錄................................................VII 第一章 緒論 1-1 研究背景............................................1 1-2 研究目的............................................3 第二章 文獻回顧 2-1 石化污染物之種類....................................4 2-2 揮發性有機物(VOCs)所引起之癌症(健康效應)........4 2-3 非揮發性有機物空氣污染及飲用水相關之研究............5 2-4 石化區之流行病學調查................................6 2-5 石化區空氣擴散模式..................................9 2-6 致癌風險評估.......................................10 第三章 實施方法與執行步驟 3-1 研究區域之選擇....................................12 3-2 問卷調查..........................................13 3-2-1問卷之效度分析...............................13 3-2-2問卷之趨勢圖分析與差異性分析.................13 3-3 石化工業區內致癌性污染物之選擇....................14 3-4 建立ISC空氣擴散模式所需之各項參數.................15 3-4-1 建立管道、設備元件、儲槽之排放參數..........16 3-4-1.1 回溯及重新建立各石化工廠中各製程開始量產 至90年的原物料及產品之使用量............16 3-4-1.2 建立排放管道、設備元件、儲槽之排放參數..17 3-4-1.3 管道、設備元件、儲槽排放量之推估.......20 3-4-1.4 氣象資料...............................23 3-5 空氣擴散模式之模擬.................................24 3-6 致癌性風險評估.....................................25 第四章 結果與討論 4-1 問卷調查之結果分析.................................27 4-2 回溯及重新建立各石化工業區各製程開始量產至90年的原 物料及產品之使用量之結果...........................28 4-3 建立管道、設備元件、儲槽之排放參數之結果...........29 4-4 推估工廠中各製程歷年之排放量(民國74~90年)之結果.29 4-5 空氣擴散模式模擬之結果.............................34 4-6 ISC模式模擬值與石化區實測值比較之結果.............35 4-7 致癌性風險評估之結果...............................36 4-8 致癌風險與疾病發生之相關性分析.....................40 第五章 結論與建議 5.1 結論...............................................41 5.2 建議...............................................43 參考文獻...............................................45 附件一 文獻彙整表......................................94 附件二 工廠問卷.......................................104 附件三 IARC...........................................125 附件四 工廠基本資料...................................133 附件五 趨勢分析與差異性分析...........................137 附件六 回溯及重新建立各石化工廠中各製程開始量產至90年 的原物料及產品之使用量.........................171 附件七 ISC空氣擴散模式推估之模擬值....................191 附件八 三大工業區中致癌性污染物之風險值...............242

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