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研究生: 蕭翔方
Hsiao, Hsiang-Fang
論文名稱: 新興科技產品之偏好研究-以電動機車目標族群為例
Consumer Preference for Emerging Technology Products – An Example of Electric Scooter’s Target Group
指導教授: 黃國平
Hwang, Kevin P.
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 交通管理科學系
Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science
論文出版年: 2018
畢業學年度: 106
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 72
中文關鍵詞: 電動機車公共電動自行車敘述性偏好多元羅吉特體驗
外文關鍵詞: Electric Scooter, Public Electric Bicycle, Stated Preference, Multinomial Logit, Experience
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  • 機車在一些國際上最快速機動化、人口最多的地區裡是一個重要甚至是占支配地位的運輸模式。雖然探討低排放替代能源運具之文獻數量不斷地成長,不過這些研究的努力大多數均專注於傳統燃油汽車的替代方案。但在擁有近一千四百萬輛機車的台灣,能否順利吸引使用燃油機車的族群轉換至較環保的電動機車或公共電動自行車是一大課題。
    本研究使用敘述性偏好法探討高度使用機車的台南與高雄地區對於現今之換電池式電動機車及即將引進之公共電動自行車之偏好,並進一步鎖定最常使用機車外出之20-50歲民眾,加上正處於初期購買或使用機車之18-20歲族群。本研究另並探討消費者於獲取足夠先備資訊後進行電動機車之體驗對於其偏好的影響。
    根據本研究結果顯示,「購買價格」及「可及性」是屬性變數中影響最為顯著的兩項,而高雄與台南之地區差異於電動機車之偏好影響則不明顯。另填答者於了解足夠資訊後進行騎乘體驗能夠顯著提升其選擇電動機車的機率。另外,亦有其他社會經濟變數來增加偏好模型的解釋能力,如品牌、年齡、學歷等方案特定變數。透過建構偏好模型,能夠了解民眾在意的變數,以使未來轉換過程可成功吸引民眾配合。

    Scooter is an important and even dominant mode of transportation in some of the fastest-motorizing, most populous regions of the world. While the literature on low-emission alternative energy vehicles continues to grow, most of these research efforts focus on alternatives to traditional fuel cars. However, in Taiwan, which has nearly 14 million scooters, it is a major issue to be able to smoothly transfer the use of traditional scooters to environmentally friendly electric scooters or public electric bicycles. This study uses a stated preference approach to explore the preferences of Tainan and Kaohsiung areas for today's battery-swapping electric scooters and public electric bicycles, which is an upcoming introduction. This study also explores the impact of the experience of the electric scooter on the preferences of consumers after obtaining sufficient prior information. According to the results of this study, "purchase price" and "accessibility" are the two most significant factors in the attribute variables, while the difference between Kaohsiung and Tainan is not obvious. Giving respondent a test ride after learning enough information can significantly increase the likelihood that they choose an electric scooter in the questionnaire. By constructing a preference model, we can understand the variables that people care about, so that the future conversion process can successfully attract people's cooperation.

    目錄 vii 表目錄 ix 圖目錄 ix 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 5 1.3 研究對象 5 1.4 研究流程 6 第二章 文獻回顧 8 2.1 國內外電動機車市場 8 2.2 替代能源汽車相關文獻 14 2.3 電動機車相關研究 15 2.4 電動自行車相關文獻 19 第三章 研究方法 23 3.1 敘述性偏好 23 3.2 離散選擇模式 25 3.3 多元羅吉特模式 27 3.4 問卷設計 30 3.5 屬性水準值設計 31 第四章 統計分析與模式校估 35 4.1 問卷調查 35 4.2 基本統計分析 36 4.3 不相關替選方案的獨立性檢定 38 4.4 變數說明 38 4.5 結果校估 40 4.6 市場分析 49 4.7 管理意涵 51 第五章 結論與建議 54 5.1 結論 54 5.2 建議 57 5.3 研究限制與後續研究建議 59 參考文獻 60 附件一 正式問卷 67

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    1. 行政院環境保護署(2001),擷取日期:2017年8月2日,https://www.epa.gov.tw/
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