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研究生: 朱柏樺
Chu, Bo-Hua
論文名稱: 應用EAA模型於中國大陸、香港與台灣證券市場
Applying the Elastic Asset Allocation Models to the Securities Markets of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan
指導教授: 顏盟峯
Yen, Meng-Feng
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2016
畢業學年度: 104
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 34
中文關鍵詞: FAA資產配置模型EAA資產配置模型Smart Beta策略
外文關鍵詞: Flexible Asset Allocation, Elastic Asset Allocation, Smart Beta Strategy
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  • 這篇論文主要研究的是Wouter J. Keller et al. (2014) 的EAA模型(靈活的資產配置模型)於大中華地區,包括中國大陸、香港以及台灣地區的證券市場的應用。EAA模型是建立在以個別資產的報酬率、波動性以及和均權模型(Equal Weighted Model)的相關性,所形成的幾何彈性。EAA模型是自FAA模型(有彈性的資產配置模型)衍生而來。原則上,這兩個模型都利用了一般化動能的概念,也就是假設個別資產的報酬率、波動率以及和均權模型的相關性,在短期具有持續性。每月根據綜合分數來組成投資組合,組成的規則是將分數前N大的資產納入投資組合。此外,我們也會介紹從FAA模型演變到EAA模型的一般化過程;接著,介紹EAA模型的衍生模型,包含EAA的最適模型—EAA Golden模型(EAA黃金模型, 包含防禦型和攻擊型兩種模型)。模型最適化是透過樣本內樣本外的方法達成,且為了避免資料探勘的問題,樣本內樣本外的期間橫跨約一個世紀。
    跟隨Keller(2014)的方法,我們將EAA模型應用於大中華地區的股票指數ETF、債券指數ETF和REITS,樣本期間從2006年1月到2015年12月,自2007年5月 ,每月調整一次資產權重。實證結果顯示,EAA Golden模型展現超凡的風險調整能力,且能夠擊敗均權模型;其他EAA衍生模型的曝險程度則非常低。

    In this paper, we take the Elastic Asset Allocation (EAA), introduced by Keller (2014) and apply it to the securities markets of the Greater China Economic Sphere, comprising China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. EAA is based on geometrical elasticities, composed of historical asset returns (R), volatilities (V), and correlations to an equal weighted index (C). It was inspired by the Flexible Asset Allocations (FAA), also proposed by Keller (2012). In principle, both models utilize the concept of generalized momentum, where we assume persistence in the short term for R, V and C. Portfolio formation is done monthly according to the combined score, and the rule is to select the top N assets. We also briefly introduce the FAA illustrate the process of generalization from FAA to EAA, after which we elaborate on the EAA and its derivative models, including an optimized model, called the EAA Golden Models, which includes both defensive and offensive ones. The process of optimization goes through a dataset spanning over a century in order to avoid the data-snooping (or curve-fitting) problem.
    Following Keller(2014), we apply the EAA models to the stock index ETFs, bond index ETFs and REITs of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan using the monthly data from Jan. 2006 to Dec. 2015, in which the portfolio has been rebalanced monthly since 1st May 2007 . The empirical results show that the EAA Golden models demonstrate extraordinary risk-adjusted and absolute out-of-sample performance over the equal weighted index for a diversified asset universe selected from the Greater China; other EAA derivative models show a considerably lower degree of risk.

    摘要 i Abstract ii 誌謝 iv I.Introduction 1 II.Literature Review 4 III.Methodology and Model Specification 9 IV.Empirical Results 20 V.Conclusion 31 References 33

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