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研究生: 桑傑
Sangye Holden
論文名稱: 國際政經博弈對「自由國際秩序」之影響分析:以經濟制裁與去美元化為例
Impact of International Econo-political Struggle on the "Liberal International Order": A Case Study of Economic Sanctions and De-dollarization
指導教授: 周志杰
Chou, Chih-Chieh
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學院 - 政治學系
Department of Political Science
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 111
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 135
外文關鍵詞: De-dollarization, Monetary Policy, Economic Sanctions, Petrodollar, Liberal International Order
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  • Since the enactment of the Bretton Woods System, the US dollar has been utilized as the international reserve currency by choice due to its liquidity and stability, and the depth of US financial markets. However, the increasing risk of US economic sanctions as an aftermath of Russia’s Annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the Russo-Ukrainian War has encouraged nations such as China and Russia to establish and promote financial institutions such as the Cross- Border Inter-Bank Payments System (CIPS), System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) to bypass the SWIFT financial messaging system and promote the internationalization national currencies in the denomination of trade. This documentary analysis-based case study investigates how economic sanctions have led to de-dollarization, and how China, Russia, and other relevant actors have utilized de-dollarization and the internationalization of their currencies to hedge against exposure to economic risk with trade denomination and US treasury bond holdings as critical indicators and what implications do economic sanctions and de- dollarization have on the liberal international order. The results indicate that while the dollar’s share in global reserve currency holdings and payments has declined from its peak, a wide discrepancy exists in the location of the changes. While the challenges on the dollar caused by the current wave of de-dollarization appear to be limited in scale and cohesion regarding the extent to which each member seeks to de-dollarize, the development of alternatives to the established global financial infrastructure could function as a reliable contingency plan against the risks of economic sanctions.

    Abstract I List of Tables: V List of Figures: VI Chapter I: Introduction 1 Section I: Research Motivation 1 Section II: Research Goal & Research Questions 2 Section III: Scope of Research 5 Section IV: Applied Research Method and Source of Data 7 Section V: Research Framework, Defined Variables, and Phases 9 Chapter II: Literature Review 11 Section I: Reserve Currency and Hegemonic Power-An Exorbitant Privilege? 11 Section II: Forces Behind the Transition of Currency Power 14 Section III: Liberal Institutions, Realism, and Currencies 16 Section IV: Triffin’s Dilemma 20 Section V: Economic Sanctions and Evasion 22 Chapter III: The United States and the Strength of the Coalition 25 Section I: Geopolitical Background 25 1.1: The Preeminence of the Dollar and Potential Threats 25 1.2: US Economic Sanctions on Russia 26 1.3: The Containment of China 29 1.4: Economic Sanctions and the Global Currency Composition 33 1.5: Global Payments and Trade Denomination 40 Section II: Relevant Actors of the Sanction Coalition 44 2.1: The European Sanction Coalition and US Diplomacy 44 2.2: Policy Shifts in Japan 52 2.3: India as a Middle Power 59 Section III: Changes in Foreign U.S. Treasury Securities Holdings 66 Section IV: Securing a Coalition 68 Chapter IV: China and the De-dollarizing Coalition 71 Section I: Geopolitical Background 71 1.1: China’s Counter-Hegemonic Initiatives 71 1.2: The Establishment of the BRI and AIIB 72 Section II: Relevant Actors 79 2.1: The Emerging Economies of BRICS Member States 79 2.2: Russia as a Revisionist Power 83 2.3: Oil-Producing Nations and the Petrodollar 89 Chapter V: Conclusion 95 Section I: Summary of Key Findings 95 Section II: Policy Implications 96 Section III: Contribution of Research & Future Studies 101 References 103

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