本研究以臺灣上市公司進行研究，並以2008年至2017年作為研究區間，分別探討經理人過度自信、公司新投資支出與股價崩盤間的關係和不效率的投資是否增加股價崩盤風險。過度自信的經理人傾向過度樂觀並相信自身能力可以為公司帶來良好的獲利，因此過度自信的特性，使他們高估投資案可帶來的現金流量，將淨現值為負的投資案誤認為好(淨現值為正)的投資案，造成其所屬公司相對於其他公司會有較高的投資支出。而失真的投資決策可能造成公司投資效率低，因此本研究亦探討不效率的投資與股價崩盤風險間的關係。本研究實證結果顯示，經理人過度自信的特性與公司未來的投資支出成正相關，表示過度自信的經理人會將其高估外來現金流及過於樂觀的特質反映在公司投資金額上。另外，實證結果亦顯示，不效率的投資會增加公司未來股價崩盤的風險。

This study investigates empirically the effect of CEO overconfidence on firm-level investment expenditure and how inefficient investment expenditure affects future stock price crash risk. Overconfident managers are prone to undertake negative net-present-value projects because they believe their capability can create profits to the firm. Thus, overconfident managers tend to hoard bad news and to keep unprofitable projects alive. As the result of managers’ overconfident behaviors is reflected on the new investment expenditure of the firm, the new investment expenditures of the firm might be inefficient. Using a large sample of Taiwanese firms for the period 2004-2017, our empirical evidence shows that new investment expenditures of the company has relation with future stock risk and inefficient new investment expenditures lead to future stock price crash risk. This finding implies that inefficient investment increases firm’s future stock price crash risk.

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