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研究生: 吳宥萱
Wu, You-Shiuan
論文名稱: 考量永續因素之災害下運輸系統恢復力最佳化模型建立之研究
Transportation Resilience Optimization Model under Disaster With the consideration of Sustainability
指導教授: 胡大瀛
Hu, Ta-Yin
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 交通管理科學系
Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science
論文出版年: 2016
畢業學年度: 104
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 107
中文關鍵詞: 恢復力災害運輸網路永續性
外文關鍵詞: Resilience, Disaster, Transportation network, Sustainability
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  • 氣候變遷在近年來已經成為相當重要的議題,且氣候變遷導致自然災害的發生越來越頻繁,也越來越嚴重。由於交通建設在災害下是非常脆弱的,所以必須擬定計畫來增強其恢復力。然而恢復力的概念較模糊且較難被量化,永續性議題也較少被納入考慮,所以本研究之目的在於探討運輸系統中恢復力與永續性間的關聯,並提出一個數學模型以量測運輸系統於災害下之恢復力及永續性。
    本研究著重於不同假設與限制下,災前及災後的運輸路網恢復力最佳化,並納入永續性做為考量因子,主要目標為建立一個能夠連結恢復力及永續性之最佳化模式。此最佳化模式是根據多指標系統建立,欲藉由有效率的資源分配來執行災前準備及災後復原工作,以提升運輸系統之恢復力。
    災害下之恢復力指標數據藉由交通指派模擬軟體DynaTAIWAN模擬求得,而恢復力與永續性指標間之權重由分析層級程序法(AHP)來求得。本研究將以2014年高雄市氣爆事件進行實證研究分析,以應用及驗證此整合性模式,並且設定多個情境來實驗。最後依據求得之結果可擬訂相關建議,供有效資源分配計畫及災前防範計畫參考之用,且可納入永續性作為考慮的一環。所以執行災前準備及災後復原工作不僅可以改善災害下的路網績效,還能提升永續程度,尤其是災前的準備工作。另外,預算的增加能使永續程度快速提升,因此考慮永續必須先有充足的經費預算考量。

    Climate change has become a critical issue in recent year, and lead to natural disasters happen more frequently and seriously. Transportation infrastructures are vulnerable under disasters, so resilience enhancement plan is necessary to conduct. However, resilience is a relative vague concept and hard to quantify, and seldom takes sustainability into consideration, so the purpose of this research is to discuss the connection of resilience and sustainability in transportation systems and to formulate the mathematical model for measuring transportation resilience with the consideration of sustainability under disasters.
    This research focuses on the pre-disaster and post-disaster optimization of network resilience and sustainability under different assumptions and constraints. The main objective is to establish an optimization model that can both consider transportation resilience and sustainability. The optimization model based on multiple indicators are proposed to improve transportation resilience by efficient resource allocation for pre-disaster preparedness and post-disaster recovery actions.
    DynaTAIWAN is used to evaluate the resilience index under disasters, and AHP method is used to combine multiple indicators. The experts think coping capacity is the most important indicator. Empirical study of Kaohsiung Gas Explosions in 2014 is carried out to illustrate the application, and different scenarios are carried out in experiments. The results can offer some advices for efficient resource allocation plans and disaster prevention enforcement plans when sustainability is considered. Taking preparedness and recovery actions can not only improve network performance under disaster but also increase the level of sustainability, especially for preparedness. Further, level of sustainability increases most rapidly with respect to budget. Thus, enough budget is needed for considering sustainability.

    ABSTRACT I 摘要 III 誌謝 IV TABLE OF CONTENTS V LIST OF TABLE VIII LIST OF FIGURE IX CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Motivation and Background 1 1.2 Research Objectives 3 1.3 Research Flow Chart 3 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 6 2.1 Sustainability on Transportation 6 2.1.1 Definitions of Sustainable Transportation 6 2.1.2 Evaluation of Sustainable Transportation 8 2.2 Resilience on Transportation 9 2.2.1 Definitions of Transportation Resilience 10 2.2.2 Applications of Resilience on Transportation 12 2.3 Quantitative Measures of Resilience 14 2.4 Sustainability and Resilience 19 2.5 Summary 21 CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 22 3.1 Problem Statement and Research Assumption 22 3.2 Research Framework 25 3.3 Connection between Resilience and Sustainability 28 3.4 Transportation Resilience Index 29 3.5 Model Formulation 35 3.6 Analytic Hierarchy Process 42 3.7 Summary 43 CHAPTER 4 IMPLEMENTATION AND EXPERIMENTAL PROCEDURES 44 4.1 Solution Algorithm 44 4.2 The Weight of Resilience Indicator by AHP 48 4.2.1 Expert Questionnaire Survey 48 4.2.2 AHP Analysis Results 49 4.3 Procedure of Path Selection for Connectivity 51 4.4 Summary 55 CHAPTER 5 EMPIRICAL EXPERIMENTS 56 5.1 Kaohsiung Gas Explosions 56 5.2 Network of Kaohsiung Gas Explosions 57 5.3 Experimental Setups 58 5.3.1 Experimental Scenarios 58 5.3.2 Preparedness and Recovery Action Setting 59 5.3.3 Other Experiment Settings 61 5.3.4 Parameter Setting of Pre- and Post-Disaster Performance 63 5.4 Empirical Study of Different Scenarios 64 5.4.1 Scenario 1 67 5.4.2 Scenario 2 71 5.4.3 Scenario 3 76 5.5 Sensitivity Analysis 80 5.6 Summary 82 CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS 85 6.1 Conclusions 85 6.2 Suggestions 88 REFERENCES 89 APPENDIX A AHP Questionnaire 95 APPENDIX B Expert Questionnaire Distribution Result 107

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