摘 要

　　土地空間變遷之模擬，在都市研究的領域中，一直是相當重要且複雜的課題，在都市計畫的領域中，許多研究學者皆試圖以土地使用規劃模式來定義土地發展的規則，進而推斷未來土地的空間結構，因此有關土地變遷模擬的研究方法在近幾年裡日益激增，隨著土地發展的多樣性與複雜化，研究方法從過去「由上而下」轉移至「由下而上」的探討，而細胞自動機理論（Cellular Automata）為近年來快速發展的一種「由下而上」之模式，由於它能夠以最簡單的模式，來探討土地空間複雜系統中「局部－整體」的互動關係。因此在土地使用變遷的相關研究中被廣泛地應用。

　　在城鄉土地規劃過程中，若能對空間中土地使用的發展變遷狀況能多加掌握，則對於城鄉土地的劃設工作，可提供重要且直接的幫助，本研究便是基於這樣的立場，嘗試在土地使用模擬系統中，結合複雜科學中「細胞自動機」之理論，作為模式架構運算的基礎理論。

　　本研究以細胞自動機理論為基礎，結合土地適宜性分析方法與SLEUTH模型，架構出一套新的永續城鄉土地劃設支援模式，配合自我發展條件以及鄰近的土地使用狀況，模擬出未來都市發展土地的空間分佈情形，以作為劃設相對適合城鄉土地發展的土地區位，並以台南市為進行實證模擬的研究對象。

Abstract
　Simulation of land space changes, in the field of urban studies, it has been a quite important and complicated subject all the time. Lots of researchers attempt to define the rules of land development by model of land use planning, and then infer the space structure of the land in the future. So the research approach about land changes simulation increases sharply day by day in recent years. With variety and complicate of land development, research approach shift from the past “Top-down” to “Bottom-up” discussion. And cellular automata theory is the most fast-developing “Bottom-up” model in recent years. Because it can discuss the “some-whole” relation in complicated system of land space by a simplest model. So it widely applied among relevant research of land use changes.

　While planning in the urban-rural area, if we can take more understand on development changes states of land use in the space, can offer important and direct help on the work of delimiting the urban-rural areas. Because of such a position, this research is to try it in the simulation system of land use, combining the theory of “cellular automata” in complicated science as the basic theory of operation of the model structure.

　This research is based on cellular automata theory, combining the land suitability analysis method and SLEUTH model, constructing a set of new supporting model delimiting the sustainable urban-rural area. Cooperated with the self-development condition and neighborhood land use state, simulating space distribution situation of future developing land, for it to delimit suitable land location of relative development in urban-rural area, and regard Tainan area as the research object of carrying on real example simulation.

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