本研究參考Schmidt（2006）之作法，將有效稅率變動所造成之盈餘變動（the tax change component，TCC）解構，以探討其與各解構因子之持續性及預測能力。其次，本研究針對財務會計準則公報第23號「期中財務報表之表達及揭露」之修改，探討修改後之公報其TCC對未來盈餘預測能力是否有所影響，以瞭解公報修改的適切性與必要性。再者，本文採用Mishkin（1983）理性預期模型，探討市場是否正確解讀TCC及其各解構因子之持續性，同時也透過避險組合交易策略來探討投資人能否利用TCC及其各解構因子於市場上賺取未來異常報酬，以印證Mishkin理性預期模型之結果。最後，本研究以有效稅率變動來偵測盈餘管理，探討盈餘管理與有效稅率變動之關係。
　　本文實證結果發現：(1)TCC並非市場所認為之暫時性，在將TCC解構成原始估計(Q1TCC)與後續修正(REVTCC)兩部分後，證實Q1TCC比REVTCC更具持續性，此種結果與Schmidt（2006）之研究結論一致。(2)財務會計準則第23號公報修改前後，其TCC對未來盈餘預測能力並無顯著差異，顯示該公報修訂的簡化效果確實存在。(3)若進一步將REVTCC解構成Q2TCC、Q3TCC及Q4TCC後，僅在有效稅率減少之樣本下，Q4TCC之持續性才會最小。(4)市場投資人對TCC、REVTCC及Q4TCC三者之定價錯誤，投資人可藉由避險投資組合策略，利用該三項資訊於市場上獲得異常報酬。(5)管理前盈餘未達分析師盈餘預測目標之公司，確實較管理前盈餘已達分析師盈餘預測目標之公司，有較強之動機藉由第四季有效稅率之降低以進行盈餘管理。

　　This paper exploits Schmidt’s (2006) framework by decomposing earnings generated by changes in effective tax rates (the tax change component, hereafter TCC) to examine whether TCC and its components are persistent and to forecast future earnings. Moreover, this study also examines the modification of Taiwan’s SFAS No. 23, Interim Financial Reporting and Disclosure, to realize its appropriateness and necessity. In addition, this article employs Mishkin (1983) rational expectations test to investigate whether the market fully incorporates the valuation implications of TCC and its components, and to find whether investors can exercise hedge portfolio strategy to earn abnormal returns. Finally, I also examine the change of effective tax rate to detect manager’s earnings management behavior and test whether tax expense is regularly used to achieve target earnings.
　　Empirical results indicate that (1) There is a positive and significant association between TCC and future earnings. It is initial evidence that TCC is not transitory. After decomposing TCC into initial TCC (Q1TCC) and revised TCC (REVTCC), Q1TCC is more persistent for future earnings than REVTCC. Such finding is consistent with research conclusion of Schmidt. (2) The relationship between TCC and future earnings is not changed since Taiwan’s SFAS No. 23 has been revised. Such result suggests that simplified effect on modification of SFAS No. 23 indeed exists. (3) After decomposing REVTCC into Q2TCC, Q3TCC and Q4TCC, Q4TCC has the smallest persistent coefficient only in the sample firms with decreases in annual effective tax rates. (4) The market appears to underestimate the persistence of TCC, REVTCC and Q4TCC, so investors can exercise the above information to earn abnormal returns in the market by using hedge portfolio trading strategy. (5) The firms whose earnings absent tax expense management miss analysts’ consensus forecast indeed have greater incentives in decreasing the fourth-quarter effective tax rate to manage earnings than the firms whose earnings absent tax expense management exceed analysts’ consensus forecast.

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