本研究為探討台灣西南部地區之地震潛能，利用1995-2006年間GPS資料，繪製出震間期地殼變形之速度場與應變率場，並藉由平面應變計算最小大地測量矩率（minimum geodetic moment rate）。此外，本研究蒐集近百年來（1906-2007）之地震資料，計算地殼藉由發震所釋放之地震矩率（seismic moment rate），以及地殼變形型態。台灣西南部地區相對於澎湖白沙站（S01R）之GPS速度場顯示：本區地殼在水平速度場大致由東向西運動、量值由東南向西北遞減（55 mm/yr、方位角272°減至1 mm/yr、方位角252°）。高程方向速度場顯示：海岸平原區具有顯著下陷量（40-60 mm/yr），隨著遠離海岸則下陷程度趨緩，木屐寮－六甲斷層線以東大致呈現抬升狀態（10-30 mm/yr）。應變率場顯示：台灣西南部地區之變形型態以壓縮應變為主，壓縮率與剪切率之最大量值集中在觸口斷層－左鎮斷層－龍船斷層之縱向帶狀區域內（50 × 10 km^2），壓縮量高達2 μstrain/yr，壓縮軸近乎東-西方向。最小大地測量矩率（minimum geodetic moment rate）代表地殼受板塊推移而承載之保守年平均能量；地震矩率（seismic moment rate）代表發震深度（20 km）以上之地殼、藉由地震所釋放之年平均能量。台灣西南部地區之最小大地測量矩率超過地震矩率逾百倍，將最小大地測量矩率扣除地震矩率，可得矩率虧損值（deficit of moment rate），代表能量在地殼中承載與已經發震釋放之差距，差距之能量可能累積再以地震（seismic）形式來釋放，或者早已以無震（aseismic）形式持續釋放。矩率虧損之最大量值（5×10^16 - 7×10^17 Nm/yr）主要沿著觸口斷層、左鎮斷層、龍船斷層以及旗山斷層分布。將最小大地測量矩率除以地震矩率，可得矩率比值（ratio of moment rate），若矩率比值趨近於1，代表兩種矩率量值愈相近，如觸口斷層、潮州斷層以及西港一帶（比值＜10^2）。地震頻率與規模關係之參數－b值越小，代表該地區發生大地震之機率較大。西部麓山帶之木屐寮－六甲斷層、觸口斷層以及中央山脈西翼之旗山斷層具有較高矩率虧損率（5×10^16 - 7×10^17 Nm/yr）、較小之矩率比值（4×10^1 - 1×10^4）以及b值（0.3 - 0.6），所儲存之能量傾向以發震形式釋放，因此虧損之能量可能累積、釀成大規模地震在未來釋放。後甲里斷層－新化斷層－左鎮斷層－旗山斷層所包夾區域以及海岸平原之矩率虧損率較低（5×10^16 - 6×10^17 Nm/yr）、矩率比值最大（10^3 - 10^5）、b值亦大（0.45 - 0.9），推測兩區域之地殼較為塑性，虧損之能量以主要小規模地震釋放，或者隨地殼形變而無震釋放。大地測量應變率場以及地震應變率場顯示：地震應變因受制於全空間之地殼侷限，應變軸軸向變化規律，大地測量應變為半空間受壓條件，應變軸軸向較為散亂，但兩者所呈現台灣西南部地區之地殼受壓方向大致為東-西方向，與大地構造運動相符。

In order to recognize the present-day crustal deformation and the earthquake potential of southwestern Taiwan, this study analyzed the GPS measurements from 325 campaign-mode GPS stations between 1996 and 2006. Horizontal velocities relative to the Chinese continental margin station, S01R, reveal dramatically decrease from ~55 mm/yr with the direction of 272° in SE of the study area to nearly no deformation in NW of the study area. The subsidence areas mainly distributed over the Coastal Plain with 40-60 mm/yr. The uplift areas of 10-30 mm/yr mainly concentrates on the region east of the Muchiliao fault (MCLF) and the Liuchia fault (LCAF) boundaries of the Western Foothills. Along the Chukou fault (CKUF), the Tsochen fault (TCNF) and the Lungchuan Fault (LCNF) with ~50×10 km^2 in area undergoes a maximum shortening rate of 2 μstrain/yr. Strains accumulated adjacent to major faults are largely elastic. The minimum geodetic moment rate represents the conservative average energy of all contributing sources of deformation in the crust while the seismic moment rate counts only the seismic component of deformation. The minimum geodetic moment rate exceeds the seismic moment rate by more than two orders of magnitude in southwestern Taiwan. The minimum geodetic moment rate minus the seismic moment rate leaves the deficit of moment rate, as the missing energy which could be accumulated then release seismically later on or released aseismically. The maximum deficit of moment rate mainly concentrates along CKUF, TCNF, LCNF and the Chishan fault (CHNF) with 5×10^16 - 7×10^17 Nm/yr. The minimum geodetic moment rate divided by the seismic moment rate equals to the ratio of moment rate. The ratio of moment rate of 1 means the magnitude of two moment rates are similar. The Western Foothills and western Central Range include MCLF, LCAF, CKUF and CHNF with the larger deficit of moment rate (5×10^16 - 7×10^17 Nm/yr), the smaller ratio of moment rate (4×10^1 - 1×10^4) and the smaller b-value (0.3 - 0.6) suggest that the accommodated energy in the crust tends to release seismically. The Coastal Plain and the area surrounded by the Houchiali fault (HCLF), the Hsinhua fault (HHAF), TCNF and CHNF with the smaller deficit of moment rate (5×10^16 - 6×10^17 Nm/yr), the larger ratio of moment rate (10^3 - 10^5) and the larger b-value (0.45 - 0.9) suggest that the energy of these areas may release by the occurrences of small earthquakes or release aseismically. The orientation of geodetic strain rate field is similar to that of the seismic strain rate field.

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