國際海事組織(IMO)為了減少硫氧化物的排放，實施更嚴格的硫含量限制，限硫令在2020年1月生效，在指定排放控制區外的船舶燃油硫含量限制從3.5%m/m降到0.5%m/m。我國交通部於2019年針對高雄港提前實施IMO低硫政策，故本研究探討臺灣實施IMO低硫政策是否有效降低港區船舶排放之二氧化硫等汙染物質。本研究探討航運中的硫排放標準對沿海地區空氣品質的影響，將運用SARIMA時間序列模型預測比較無實施低硫政策與實際觀測到的污染物濃度之間的差異，透過差異中差異法，以暴露於航運空氣汙染與海岸的接近程度作為區分，將距離高雄港第二港口最近之觀測站設定為實驗組，以外設定為對照組，基於此分組，比較限硫令前後實驗組及對照組，判斷低硫油政策實施對改善高雄港空氣品質效果是否顯著，研究結果顯示以2018年獎勵措施為切分點濃度降低約1.718ppb、2019年高雄港提前實施低硫政策約降低2.134ppb，而2020年全球強制實施降低約1.698ppb，表示高雄港之低硫政策確實對於實驗組測站有SO2具有顯著降低之影響表示使用低硫油對於高雄港改善二氧化硫濃度為有效政策，政府及港口當局可以持續監測港口的空氣污染物濃度，並制定相關的減排政策，以利空氣品質的改善與永續發展。

To reduce sulfur oxide emissions, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) implemented stricter sulfur content limits. For all regions except designated emission control areas, the sulfur limit took effect in January 2020, reducing the sulfur content limit for ship fuels from 3.5% m/m to 0.5% m/m. In 2019, Taiwan implemented the IMO low sulfur policy ahead of schedule in Kaohsiung Port. This study investigates whether Taiwan's implementation of the IMO low sulfur policy effectively reduces emissions of sulfur dioxide from ships around Kaohsiung Port.
The SARIMA time series model will be used to predict and compare the differences between pollution concentrations observed before the low sulfur policy implementation and actual observed concentrations. Applying the difference-in-differences methodology, this study uses the distance of exposure to shipping air pollution for differentiation. The observation station closest to the second port of Kaohsiung Port is designated as the experimental group, while others are included in the control group.
The research result indicates that, based on the 2018 incentive measures as a breakpoint, an approximate reduction of 1.718 ppb in concentration was measured. The advance implementation of the low sulfur policy in Kaohsiung Port in 2019 resulted in a reduction of about 2.134 ppb, and the global mandatory implementation in 2020 led to a reduction of approximately 1.698 ppb. This demonstrates a significant decrease in SO2 levels at the experimental station due to the low sulfur policy in Kaohsiung Port. The use of low sulfur oil is shown to be an effective policy for improving sulfur dioxide concentration.

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