| 研究生: |
林鴻鈞 Lin, Hung-Jiun |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
結合競爭優勢分析之投資策略及決策樹於股價趨勢預測 Application of Competitive advantages analytic strategy and decision tree to forecast stock price trends |
| 指導教授: |
徐立群
Shu, Lih-Chyun |
| 共同指導教授: |
王明隆
Wang, Ming-Long |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 會計學系 Department of Accountancy |
| 論文出版年: | 2015 |
| 畢業學年度: | 103 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 63 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | SCP模型 、VRIO架構 、五力分析 、競爭優勢 、F_SCORE 、資料探勘 、決策樹 、技術指標 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | SCP model, VRIO framework, Five Forces framework, Competitive Advantages, F_SCORE, Data Mining, Decision tree, Technical indices |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:161 下載:1 |
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企業為了在產業中爭取領先地位或保有競爭優勢以穩定長期獲利及成長能夠從很多的方面來進行。對於股票投資人而言,企業具有競爭力使整體價值穩定成長是其股票價格跟著水漲船高的主因,在整體經濟環境衰退時也能受到較不嚴重的影響,使投資人較不容易因此遭受短時間的巨大損失。
本研究以SCP模型、VRIO架構及五力分析架構為基礎定義了四項指標並分別將分析結果評分後加總得到「競爭力分數」,再搭配F_SCORE方法來分析企業的財務基本面狀況,最後將各產業中區分出高總分及低總分兩組來分別觀察其平均股票投資報酬率,整體結果顯示加入競爭力分析後的方法能夠篩選出足以擊敗大盤且優於F_SCORE方法的投資組合,且在2008及2011兩個市場為空頭走勢的年度中所受到的損失也都小於其他投資組合。
隨著資訊科技的演進,因各種人事物所產生並保留下來的資料也變得越來越有價值,本研究以技術指標為基礎使用決策樹方法來建立預測模型,預測股價每日的漲跌趨勢以提升投資報酬率。研究結果發現相較於買進持有法,決策樹對高分組及低分組平均分別提升了10.06及7.13個百分點的投資報酬率。
Based on SCP model、VRIO framework and five forces framework, this study examines whether a stock selection strategy that considers competitive advantages can help investors improve their investment returns. And observe if the prediction models of stock price trend which established by data mining methods are able to enhance the rate of investment returns. The competitiveness of enterprises is measured primarily through four aspects including net profit margin, cost ratio, market share and accounts receivable turnover ratio. We also combine F_SCORE method for helping investors to construct a portfolio which has competitive advantages and growth to provide higher average returns in next year. The fragment of using data mining to forecast stock price trends and make trading decisions is generating the decision tree models by technical indices. It was found that portfolios are constructed by company with competitive advantages and growth can provide higher average stock returns to investors. And the average returns are better than portfolios which are constructed by F_SCORE method and market, even the influence of economic environment recession on returns is smaller. The empirical results also show the decision tree model of technical indices can enhance performance of returns to both kind of company which has high or low competitiveness. Consequently, we understand that the important factor for a company's steady developing in highly competitive and rapidly changing modern business environment is obtaining or maintaining the competitive advantages.
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校內:2018-08-04公開