大眾運輸導向發展(Transit-Oriented Development, TOD)是一種可有效減少私人運具使用、促進大眾運輸交通發展並有效提升運量的方法。TOD發展理念為強調車站周遭應進行高密度、混合使用的發展、提高土地使用的強度等，但以上種種規劃因素，並非適用於任何場站，由於各場站周遭地理位置、土地使用、社經特徵等不同，應針對不同類別場站因地制宜分析影響各場站運量之TOD規劃因素。
本研究以高雄捷運系統作為實證對象。因高雄近年來推動高鐵、台鐵、捷運及輕軌等軌道大眾運輸系統之發展，但由年平均日運量觀之，高雄捷運營運至今十餘年，但其2019年平均日運量為179,161人次，與原預估每日旅客量36萬人次差異甚大。近年高雄市府雖推動TOD試圖整合土地使用發展、提高捷運運量，但因缺乏各站區分別之指導方針，以致規劃成效欠佳。因此本研究係探討影響高雄捷運各類型場站運量之主要因素，以提升大眾運輸運量為目標，點出對各站點不同之規劃建議。
然都市交通環境為一複雜、多變量、非線性、雙向反饋關係之系統，傳統的迴歸分析等方法，僅單方面探討土地使用對運量影響，屬於靜態分析，較無法考慮到系統間整體運作關係。因此本研究運用系統動態分析方法建模，模擬預測捷運場站未來動態互動的關係。系統動態分析可以就TOD規劃因素與運量間做雙向反饋關係之模擬，考量更全面的動態影響，了解系統內變數間運作的關係。
研究首先以集群分析方法進行場站之分類，定義「商業核心區」、「居住核心區」及「郊區」三種類別場站，建立系統動態模型後，分別微調及帶入各場站數據，再進行模型驗證及基本模擬。而為了解TOD規劃因素改變對系統影響，分別以5D，即密度（Density）、多樣性（Diversity）、友善行人與自行車的設計（Design）、目的地可及性（Destination)、轉乘便利性(Distance)概念納入情境模擬中，探討其中影響運量的因子及關連性，了解系統間之動態關係，根據模擬分析結果探討未來推動TOD可考量之政策策略。
情境模擬結果顯示，三種類別場站對於TOD- Design要素皆呈正面影響，對於「郊區類型場站」及「商業核心類型場站」影響運量主要因素為TOD-Density，可藉由吸引居住人口政策來提升人口密度、提高建蔽率等政策增加住宅密度，藉以吸引捷運運量旅次；對於「居住核心類型場站」影響運量主要因素為TOD-Diversity，主要可透過增加土地使用多樣性中之住業均衡等方式提高運量，可導入如吸引工商業進駐補助、限制新增住宅數政策。

Transit-Oriented-Development (TOD) is an integrated process for urban and transport planning. The concept of TOD is to emphasize high-density, mixed-land use development, and increase the intensity of land use, etc. However, only some of the above planning factors are applicable to certain types of stations.
This study, empirically verified by Kaohsiung MRT stations, applies system dynamics approach based on these interaction equations to simulate future urban development around three types of rapid transit stations, i.e., downtown or commercial stations, suburb or local center stations, and residential stations.
In order to understand the impact of TOD planning factors on the system, this study incorporates the 5D principles, i.e., Density, Diversity, Design, Destination, and Distance, into the simulations to explore the factors and correlations that affect the ridership. Based on the dynamic relationship between systems and simulation results, this study also proposes the designated policy strategies for three types of rapid transit stations so as to promote future TOD practices.

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