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研究生: 張凱琛
Chang, Kai-Chen
論文名稱: 奧林匹克運動會對地主國股票市場的影響:以北京奧運與倫敦奧運為例
The Impacts of the Olympics on the Stock Markets of Host Countries: Evidences from the Beijing Olympics and the London Olympics
指導教授: 康信鴻
Kang, Hsin-Hong
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 企業管理學系
Department of Business Administration
論文出版年: 2013
畢業學年度: 101
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 58
中文關鍵詞: 奧運股票市場市場效率運動經濟
外文關鍵詞: Olympics, Stock Market, Market Efficiency, Sports Economics
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  • 本研究使用多元迴歸模型,試圖找出奧運的舉辦與地主國股票市場的關係。研究對象為2008年舉辦北京奧運的中國與2012年舉辦倫敦奧運的英國。本研究的應變數為中國的上海證券交易所綜合指數與英國的金融時報100指數。本研究除了將奧運視為虛擬變數以外,還將總體經濟變數納入考量,總體經濟變數包含:失業率、消費者物價指數、工業生產指數、匯率、利率以及貨幣供給量。就虛擬變數而言,本研究考量到股市投資者的預期效果與落後效果,設定北京奧運的時間範圍為2008年5月到2008年11月,倫敦奧運的時間範圍為2012年5月到2012年11月。實證結果顯示,失業率、匯率與貨幣供給量不會對中國與英國的股票市場造成顯著影響。消費者物價指數與工業生產指數皆對中國的股票市場造成顯著的正面影響,但是此二變數對英國的股票市場沒有顯著影響。而利率對中國與英國的股票市場都造成顯著的負面影響。最後,2008年北京奧運設定的2008年5月到2008年11月的期間對中國的股票市場沒有顯著影響,但是2012年倫敦奧運設定的2012年5月到2012年11月的期間對英國的股票市場有10%顯著水準的負面影響。

    The main purpose of this research is to use multiple regression models in the examination of the relationship between the Olympics and stock markets of host countries. The research objectives include China, host of Beijing Olympics 2008 and the United Kingdom, host of London Olympics 2012. The dependent variables are Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index of China and Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index of the United Kingdom. The macroeconomic explanatory variables include unemployment rate, consumer price index, industrial production, exchange rate, interest rate and money supply while the dummy variables are set to the periods between 2008/5 and 2008/11 of the Beijing Olympics and between 2012/5 and 2012/11 of the London Olympics. The empirical results showed that unemployment rate, exchange rate and money supply have no significant effects on the stock markets of China and the United Kingdom. Consumer price index and industrial production have significantly positive effects on the stock market of China but not on the stock market of the United Kingdom. Interest rate has significantly negative effects on stock markets of China and the United Kingdom. The Beijing Olympics 2008 have no significant effects on the stock market of China, but the London Olympics 2012 have significantly negative effects on stock market of the United Kingdom.

    Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 Literature Review and Research Direction 3 2.1 The Effects of Mega Events 3 2.2 The Effects of Other Variables on Stock Market 8 2.3 Research Direction and Expected Contributions 13 Chapter 3 Research Design 16 3.1 Research method and Research process 16 3.2 Research Variables and Data 22 3.3 Empirical Model 29 Chapter 4 Empirical Results 31 4.1 Empirical Results and Analyses of China 31 4.2 Empirical Results and Analyses of the United Kingdom 39 Chapter 5 Conclusion and Suggestion 47 5.1 The Impacts of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Markets 47 5.2 The Effects of the Olympics on Stock Markets 50 5.3 Research Limitation 53 5.4 Research Suggestions 54 References 56

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