自然災害對當地經濟、重要的基礎設施以及公共健康和安全構成重大風險， 尤其以水災對全球各地造成之災損為所有災害之冠，且對於沿海社區衝擊逐年攀 升(Kulp & Strauss, 2019; Pörtner et al., 2019)。氣候變遷加劇促使臺灣沿海易淹 水地區帶來新的生存威脅，因過往氣候變遷治水大多以特定保護標準著手進行， 然而氣候變遷之不確定與極端性，擴大在地居民之洪水風險，從而使整體風險攀 升。為了確保沿海易淹水地區能長期且可持續性實施適應氣候變遷和減少災害風 險之策略，相對於其他減災策略，災前即規劃之後撤性調適策略在沿海地區尚未 應用，大多仰賴於保護性調適策略，回顧過往經驗，過度依賴保護性策略時，將 導致民眾對於風險認知下降，在結構性設施失靈時將導致更嚴重之災損，例如屏 東縣在莫拉克風災，因極端降雨使得堤防潰堤，進而使得沿海地區遭受前所未有 之水災。各國目前對於減災策略之轉變逐漸朝向後撤性調適策略為最終選擇，於 此本研究借美國實施買斷計劃(BuyoutProgram)、荷蘭OverdiepsPolder 地區 之 Terps Plan 與澳洲昆士蘭 Strengthening Grantham Program 三項案例作為分 析對象，歸納其特性並對應自 Gibbs (2016)所建立適時後撤(Just-in-time retreat)、 先發制人的後撤(managed retreat/ Pre-emptive retreat)、反應性後撤 (Reactionary retreat)等三種不同後撤類型，以半結構式訪談提供了對於東港、 林邊與佳冬三個地區居民對於後撤行調適策略之看法，此種有助於了解當地利益 相關者之觀點進行研究。研究顯示受訪對象特性可能影響風險認知的形塑，比如， 民眾會憑藉著自身災害經驗與智慧，來判斷災害是否發生，並非全部依賴政府資 訊。而在不同的受災經歷與政府結構性調適策略促使民眾產生不同風險認知，進 而對於不同方案選擇見解，在最終結果可知，多數民眾雖冀望能完全避免災害， 但又認為在尚未遇到災害時推行並不容易，此外更受限於人民對於減災知識不足， 經過後調整，以此建立出一套框架提決策者做為基礎參考，並強調了各項方案在 實施上之挑戰與可行之方式。本研究提供對具有成本效益之洪水調適策略之見解， 從而保護與本研究相似之地區免受水災風險，並建立長期的承洪韌性。

In the past, most of the water management efforts for climate change were based on specific protection standards. However, the uncertainty and extremes of climate change have increased the flood risk for local residents, thus increasing the overall risk. In order to ensure that coastal flood-prone areas can implement long-term and sustainable strategies to adapt to climate change and reduce disaster risks, managed retrea planned in advance of disasters have not been applied in coastal areas compared to other mitigation strategies, and most rely on protective adaptation strategies. For example, the extreme rainfall in Pingtung County during Typhoon Morakot caused the levees to collapse, which in turn caused unprecedented flooding in coastal areas. In this study, the Buyout Program in the United States, the Terps Plan in the Overdieps Polder region of the Netherlands, and the Strengthening Grantham Program in Queensland, Australia, were used as case studies to summarize their characteristics and to analyze the impact of the disaster mitigation strategy. We summarize the characteristics of these three cases and apply them to three different types of retreats, including Just-in-time retreat, Pre-emptive retreat/ managed retreat, and Reactionary retreat, as established by Gibbs (2016). Semi-structured interviews were conducted to provide insight into the risk perceptions of residents in Donggang, Linbian, and Jiadon on managed retreat, which is useful for understanding local stakeholders' perspectives. For example, people rely on their own disaster experience and wisdom to determine whether a disaster has occurred, rather than relying solely on government information. In the end, it is clear that the majority of the population would like to avoid disasters altogether, but they do not think it is easy to implement them when they have not yet encountered a disaster, and they are constrained by the lack of knowledge about disaster mitigation. It also highlights the implementation challenges and feasible approaches for each program. This study provides insights into cost-effective flood adaptation strategies to protect areas similar to this study from flood risk and to build long-term flood resilience.

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