裂流對海岸遊憩者構成重大威脅，但由於波浪、風場與海岸地形的複雜交互作用，預測裂流的發生一直極具挑戰性。本研究旨在透過整合現地影像觀測與先進數值模式來提升對裂流的觀測和預測能力。
本研究區域為於臺灣東北部的外澳海灘，利用小波邊緣偵測搭配影像卷積和幀數聚合的技術，建立乙套自動化裂流光學影像監測站，透過人工檢核該辨識模型準確率可達8成，故本研究利用該模型對整個海灘進行長期的監測，建立裂流案例與海氣象資料庫。對裂流案例進行分析，發現裂流寬度介於20-50 m，且在示性波高為1.0-1.5米、平均週期5-6秒、波向垂直入射海岸和中潮位的時候，裂流發生的機率會有所提升。同時本研究亦透過形貌動力學計算海灘類型參數和相對潮差，卻時發現外澳海域係屬裂流高潛勢發生區域。與此同時，本研究亦採用SCHISM水動力模式耦合WWM風浪模式，並將模式參數設置為適合模擬裂流的條件，建置裂流數值模擬模式。該模式是以VOR波浪動量應力進行輻射應力的計算，加上使用高解析度的網格(1 m)以及變動的陸地邊界，使得波流耦合模型能夠良好的描述近岸裂流的現象。透過與周遭鄰近實測資料站進行驗證，各向水動力參數的誤差NRMSE均小於0.15，且與監測站觀測結果比對，模擬裂流的準確率可達79%。
本研究以裂流數值模式對裂流發生的機制與發生時的特徵進行討論，對於海氣象條件的情境模擬，結論與現場觀測案例分析相似，且發現隨著波高，裂流的流速會增加。此外，設計三種常發生裂流的地形地貌，發現即便是同一種類型的地形地貌，些許的差異也會導致裂流發生時的特徵有所差異。此外，裂流發生並非僅在海表面，隨著裂流持續時間越長，裂流會從表層向下傳遞，可達到最大深度60%的位置。最後，透過將大範圍預報模式的資料輸入裂流數值模式，便可以達到裂流預測之用，本研究透過測試調整資料輸入的頻率和運算的時間步長，提出最佳的預測模式，在高準確率的同時，運算效率可提升2-3倍。
整合觀測與數值模擬的方法證明了對裂流災害進行有效評估的可行性。研究結果不僅加深了對裂流機制的認識，也具有實務意義，可作為建立裂流預警系統、增進海灘安全的基礎。

Rip currents pose significant hazards to coastal recreational users, yet predicting their occurrence remains highly challenging due to the complex interactions among wave dynamics, wind forcing, and coastal morphology. This study aims to enhance the capabilities of observation and forecasting of rip currents by integrating in-situ optical imagery with advanced numerical modeling techniques.
The study area is Waiou Beach, located in northeastern Taiwan. An automated rip current monitoring system was set up, which combines wavelet-based edge detection, image convolution, and temporal frame aggregation. The detection model achieved about 80% of those detected manually. This system was then used to monitor the beach for the long term. A rip current case database was created with the simultaneously recorded oceanographic and meteorological conditions. Case analyses showed that rip currents typically had widths of 20 to 50 meters and were more frequent when significant wave height ranged from 1.0 to 1.5 meters, mean wave period from 5 to 6 seconds, wave direction was nearly shore-normal, and tidal level was around mid-tide. Additionally, using morphodynamic indices to calculate beach parameters and relative tidal range, Waiou Beach was identified as a high-risk area for rip currents.
A three-dimensional numerical model was also developed using the Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model (SCHISM) hydrodynamic model and Wind Wave Model (WWM). Parameters were tuned for rip current simulation, incorporating radiation stress from the VOR (vortex-force) wave momentum formulation, 1 m resolution grids, and dynamic land boundaries. These settings accurately represented nearshore rip current phenomena. Validation against field data showed that the normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE) for hydrodynamic parameters was below 15%. Compared to monitoring station data, the model reproduced rip current events with an accuracy of 79%.
The numerical model investigated the mechanisms and dynamics of rip currents. Simulation results matched observations, indicating that higher wave heights produce stronger rip current velocities. Three common rip-prone morphologies of channel, sand bar, and bay tested showed that small differences within the same type can lead to distinct behaviors. Rip currents were found near the surface and extended downward; when sustained, the rip current flow can extend to a relative water depth of 0.6.. The study demonstrated the feasibility of using large-scale forecast data for the rip current model. By adjusting the input frequency and computational time step, an optimized configuration was developed, maintaining high accuracy and improving efficiency by two to three times.
Integrating observational and modeling approaches effectively assesses rip current hazards. This study enhances understanding of rip current dynamics and provides a foundation for operational early warning systems and improved beach safety.

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